BALTIMORE (at Buff.): The Ravens won’t necessarily win on Sunday; the Bills are a top-tier opponent. But that Buffalo defense is nothing special. The Bills are 5-1, but they’ve allowed at least 29 points in all but one of their games. Only the winless Chargers have failed to put up numbers against them. Baltimore, on the other hand, has floundered the last two weeks with its backup quarterback, but the offense scored 14 touchdowns in its first four games. The over-under on this game opened at 52.5 (with the Bills favored by 3.5), suggesting the Ravens will score in the mid-20s. That seems a little low. When these teams played in Week 1 last year, Buffalo came back to win a 41-40 shootout.
Lamar Jackson is expected to return from the ankle injury he suffered in Week 4. He was a limited participant in practice all of last week, and reports are that he’ll be ready. If not, it should be wheels up for the offense. Buffalo’s defense has been a hot mess so far, allowing 21 touchdowns in six games – 3.5 TDs per week, with only the winless Chargers finishing with fewer than 3. They’re not good. The Ravens, meanwhile, have been lights out when Jackson has been playing. He’s completing 71 percent of his passes. They had the sleepy 2-TD game against the Saints, but the offense has scored 12 touchdowns in Jackson’s other three games. He put up 279 combined yards and 3 TDs in the shootout loss at Buffalo last year, and the passing game now looks substantially better (Snoop Huntley threw for 298 on Sunday). It’s early, but Jackson thus far is averaging 242 passing and 36 rushing yards in four games, with 6 TD passes and touchdown run. Buffalo ranks next-to-last in pass defense, up at 299 yards per game, with 15 TDs (2.5 per week).
Derrick Henry has looked mortal of late, running for only 58 and 45 yards the last two weeks against the Ohio teams. He’s averaged more than 3.4 yards per carry, in fact, in only one of his last five games. He’s 32. But Henry should be helped along by the Bills being terrified by Lamar Jackson, and this is a suspect defense. The Patriots ran for 143 yards against them. Buffalo is only average in terms of yards allowed (101 per game) but they’ve had a lot of leads, with teams passing more against them. Henry ran for 169 yards and 2 TDs in the opener at Buffalo last year. He’s not big factor in the passing game – 10 catches for 68 yards and a touchdown. Justice Hill plays a little more than you might expect. He’s been on the field for 43 percent of the team’s plays. But he’s not handling the ball much. Seven games in, he’s averaging 20 rushing and 12 receiving yards (on 1.9 catches), with no touchdowns.
Declan Doyle is considered one of the league’s up-and-coming offensive coordinators, and Zay Flowers has been his star pupil thus far, elevating up into the superstar level. They’ve changed his role, unlocking his top-end potential. Flowers is averaging 6.7 catches for 101 yards, with 3 TDs (in six games), despite missing time in two games with a hamstring injury and playing half of his games with a backup quarterback. Buffalo’s pass defense has been a disaster thus far, allowing a league-high 11 touchdowns to wide receivers, making Flowers look about as likely as anyone to be the leading wide receiver in Week 8. With the kind of passing numbers the Ravens should put up, it makes sense to kick the tires on the other wide receivers. But there isn’t one to feel really good about. Rashod Bateman caught 7 passes for 88 yards and a touchdown against the Saints, but he’s caught only 4 passes for 83 yards (no TDs) in his other three games with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. Ja’Kobi Lane was generating some buzz at training camp, but there isn’t yet enough proof of concept. After missing a month, Lane has returned and caught 7 passes for 65 yards in the last two games.
Mark Andrews at times seems to be a player in decline. He’s 31, and this is a re-worked offense (with Flowers moved into a leading role). Andrews has dropped 3 passes, and he’s scored in only one of his last 15 games. But those who dropped Andrews early in 2024 (after a pair of catchless games) know the danger of cutting bait too early. He’s long been Lamar Jackson’s best buddy in the red zone, with 5-plus touchdowns in seven straight seasons. The Ravens have been playing with a lightly regarded backup quarterback. Andrews in his first four games caught 18 passes and a touchdown, which isn’t all that different than his usual. We won’t prop him up too aggressively for this week, but let’s not release Andrews just yet. Let’s see him work with a healthy Jackson. The rookie tight ends complementing Andrews have combined for 14 catches and 2 TDs.
Tyler Loop has a big leg. He's made field goals of 56, 57 and 64 yards. The 56-yarder in Brazil was a game-winner. But he hasn’t quite gotten over the hump, with some costly misses. There was a miss in the 3-point loss at Cleveland, and another in the close game against the Saints. Loop missed an extra point in the 41-40 loss at Buffalo last year and a field goal at Pittsburgh that would have sent the Ravens to the playoffs. But where were we? Yes. Week 8. Loop has averaged 8.3 points in the four games Lamar Jackson has started, but this looks like a shootout, PAT-heavy game. The Bills rank 30th in scoring defense but are allowing only 7.1 points against opposing kickers.
The Ravens Defense should be a bottom-10 group this week. It got ripped up pretty thoroughly by Joe Burrow, and it’s sitting at only 6 takeaways in seven games. The Bills are averaging 1.5 turnovers per game, but Josh Allen has taken only 12 sacks. Baltimore has LaJohntay Wester handling returns, but he’s over a year removed from the only notable kick return of his career (a non-scoring 38-yard punt return).
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 8 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst & Super Fanatic Packages. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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