CHICAGO (vs. T.B.): he Bears are on fire, scoring 3-4 TDs and 30-plus points while winning three in a row -- the last two against last year's Super Bowl participants. A home game against 3-5 Tampa Bay would seem a great spot to keep that going, but the Bucs have been lights-out defensively, currently top-5 in both yards and points allowed. The betting lines suggest Chicago will score around 26-27 points, and we'll go along with that. After 4 TDs and 34 points at Seattle, the Bears are playing too well to be underestimated.
Caleb Williams is on top of his
game. Seattle hadn't allowed a 200-yard passer all season, but Williams went
for 165 and a touchdown in the first half. He finished with 247, with the Bears
working the run more after halftime, but went over 300 in his previous two
games. Tampa Bay has been most vulnerable to the pass, though still pretty good
(9th). They were 14th until last week's storm-marred game against Atlanta,
which seems reasonable to downplay; Todd Bowles' defenses have long tended to
stuff the run while giving up more production through the air. Biggest negative
is that Williams has been light in the touchdown department (6 TD passes in his
five games), with more of the team's scores coming on the ground (a wild 17-8
ratio). He also hasn't run since returning from a hamstring injury (22 yards in
his last three). With the Bucs tending to allow more scores through the air
(10-3), better than average odds of Williams throwing 2 TDs this week.
Chicago ranks 2nd
in rushing offense, at 151 yards per game and with a league-high 17 touchdowns.
Remarkable, with D'Andre Swift kicked to the curb by multiple teams in
the past and the second half of the tandem, Kyle Monangai, sidelined
since Week 4. To some degree the Bears are buoyed by two monster games (523
yards and 8 touchdowns against the Panthers and Jets), but they've averaged 114
yards and scored 9 TDs in their other six games, as well. The Bucs are really
good in this area, allowing just 80 yards per game (2nd) and with a league-low
3 rushing scores. Only the Bengals, back in Week 1, reached 100 yards against
this defense. So while we don't want to underestimate Ben Johnson's offense,
makes sense to rank Swift (even coming off a 3-TD game) a little lower than
usual. Monangai has missed the last four games and hasn't practiced while
dealing with a turf-toe injury. Presumably Chicago expects him back soon, since
they didn't place him on IR, but seems just as likely it will again be Roschon
Johnson as the No. 2. He's averaged
42 total yards and scored once in that role; not recommended against this
opponent.
Luther Burden has been pretty
good all season, but better than that lately. The last three weeks he's caught
19 passes for an average of 94 yards with 2 TDs, and the last two opponents
(New England, Seattle) feature top-tier talent in their secondary. The Bucs are
more vulnerable in that regard, so Burden should keep things going. Rome
Odunze hasn't scored all season, but two of his three best games have come
the last two weeks (4 for 69 and 4 for 87), perhaps with opponents throwing
more defenders Burden's way. The matchup looks favorable for both, and they're
the only involved wideouts right now. Kalif Raymond caught 5-plus passes
in each of his first three games, but 9 total in his last five.
Tampa Bay has
allowed as many touchdowns to tight ends (5) as wide receivers, making Colston
Loveland look like a strong choice. He's been busy, with 6-7 catches in
three straight and four of five, putting aside the early-season concerns about
his usage. Just 2 TDs, but both in the last three weeks. Sam Roush
played over half the snaps at Seattle but didn't have a pass thrown his way.
Cairo Santos averages 8
points per week. He's missed 4 field goals, but 2 were from long range and he's
perfect on extra points. The Bucs have been a reasonable matchup, allowing 2
field goals per game (16 three-pointers compared to 13 extra points).
The Bears
Defense looked good already, and adding Jeffery Simmons had an immediate
effect at Seattle. Simmons played throughout and was in the backfield plenty,
with a sack and 2 tackles for losses. Chicago is currently top-8 in both
takeaways (11) and sacks (22). The Bucs have been a poor matchup lately since
they've averaged just 7 pass attempts the past two weeks, but they'll need to
be a little more balanced in this one, and Chicago should have some
opportunities.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 9 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst & Super Fanatic Packages. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
Haven't ordered yet? BUY IT NOW! Already a subscriber? VIEW IT NOW!
