DETROIT (vs N.E. in Munich, Germany): Detroit’s offense has been a disappointment of late, with more than 2 TDs in only one of its last five games. Now, one of those games was against Minnesota, which has an elite defense. And there were a couple of unlikely plays against Green Bay. But it definitely underperformed at Carolina and Miami, with 8 field goals versus only 3 touchdowns. This looks like a spot to get things right. The Patriots are a worthy opponent, but their defense has been underperforming, allowing 21 touchdowns in its last seven games. The better offenses they’ve seen – Jags, Bills, Bears, Packers – have all scored at least 3 TDs. Over-under for this game opened at 50.5 points, with the Lions favored by 2.5.
Jahmyr Gibbs is on pace for 448 touches, the most by anyone in the
last 12 years. That doesn’t seem like a great idea. They’ll be dead in the
water if he breaks down, and the workload could be robbing him of some
explosiveness. He’s averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry in only half of his
game. Not that anybody is considering sitting down a back who ran for 153 yards
against Minnesota, but this looks like a below-average matchup for him, with
New England ranking 9th in run defense. The Patriots no doubt will be keying on
him. Gibbs thus far is averaging 106 rushing and 36 receiving yards, and he’s
more likely to be under rather than over those totals. But whatever. James Cook
is the most Gibbs-like back the Patriots have seen, and he ran just fine
against them (only 75 yards, but at 6.3 per attempt).
Jared Goff comes off his worst game of the season – just 170
passing yards at Miami, with no touchdowns, an interception and a season-low
passer rating. But he’ll likely get back on track here, with New England
struggling against the pass. The Patriots rank only 26th in pass defense, and
they’ve been getting worse as the season has progressed. They’ve allowed 13 TD
passes in their last seven, and an average of 281 passing yards in their last
six. While Goff has been down the last two against the Vikings and Dolphins, he
averaged 298 in his first six games, with 14 TDs. The general vibe is to roll
him out and hope this game is the shootout many are expecting.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is long overdue for a touchdown. He hasn’t scored since
Week 3. This looks like the game where it should happen, with the points
probably flowing. For whatever it’s worth, St. Brown’s mom is German, so it’s a
home game of sorts for him. He’s definitely their top guy, averaging 7.6
catches per game. The Patriots likely will put Christian Gonzalez on him, but
that’s not necessarily a bad thing, with Gonzalez getting torched last week by
both Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.
Jameson Williams is streaky, with 3 games where he caught only 1-2
passes. He’s caught fewer than half as many balls as St. Brown. But he’s been
on of late, with all 5 of his touchdowns coming in the last four games. If
we’re subscribing to the theory that St. Brown is overdue for a touchdown, that
would hand-in-hand make Williams due for a statistical downturn. Detroit’s
third receiver, Isaac TeSlaa has been an afterthought all year, with
only 11 catches, including only 2 in his last five games.
Sam LaPorta isn’t a franchise tight end, but he’s above average.
He’s averaging 4.4 catches for 50 yards so far, with 3 TDs. With this looking
like a higher-scoring game, makes sense to slot him a little higher than usual.
The Patriots have a leaky pass defense but have been above-average against
tight ends, allowing an average of 4.9 catches for 47 yards, with 2 TDs.
Jake Bates looks like he’ll probably be a top-10 scorer this
week. His offense has sputtered of late, running out of ideas in the red zone.
Detroit has kicked multiple field goals in four of its last five games, while
the Patriots have allowed multiple field goals in their last four. Bates is
currently on pace to score 153 points, while the Patriots are on pace to allow
138 against the position.
The Lions Defense should give up plenty of yards and points; it
currently ranks last in pass defense. But it’s got a chance to finish
above-average in the stats that tend to count in fantasy leagues. Detroit has
only 8 takeaways, which is a bottom-10 number, but the Patriots have been
awfully loose with the football, with 11 interceptions and 8 lost fumbles. Only
the Chargers have as many giveaways. And Detroit has a solid enough pass rush,
averaging over 3 sacks per week; the Patriots, meanwhile, are working without
two OL starters. Detroit doesn’t have a notable kick returner.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 10 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst & Super Fanatic Packages. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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