ATLANTA (at Arizona):
This looks like a slightly below-average situation for the Atlanta offense. Arizona is 3-4, but it seems to have a respectable defense. Three of those losses were against San Francisco, Seattle and New Orleans. We're not sure the Falcons will finish with anything more than 20 points. ... Mike Smith indicates Steven Jackson (hamstring) should come back this week. He's been out since Week 2. But at best, this is an average matchup for him. Atlanta has a lesser offensive line and hasn't been able to do much on the ground; it's averaging only 68 rushing yards
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per game. Arizona ranks 7th against the run, and it's giving up only 3.6 yards per attempt. We don't think the Cardinals are quite that good. In each of the past two weeks, they've had problems with big, physical veteran runners -- Marshawn Lynch and Frank Gore. Gore ran for 101 yards and a touchdown, while Lynch went for 91 and a score. Not that Jackson is quite up with those guys, and his blocking won't be as good, but he potentially could punch out 70 yards. He'll be running on fresh legs. Arizona definitely will be more worried about Atlanta's passing game. ... We're putting Tony Gonzalez a lot higher than usual. The Falcons are short on wide receivers right now anyway, so they're going to lean on him, and Arizona has had problems with tight ends. Four times this year, Arizona has allowed teams to throw 2 TDs to tight ends. This defense has actually allowed more touchdowns to be scored by tight ends (8) than wide receivers (5). The Cardinals just can't seem to cover tight ends right now, making this a four-star matchup for Gonzalez.
| Tight ends against Arizona | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | No | Yards | TD |
| Jared Cook | 7 | 141 | 2 |
| Jimmy Graham | 9 | 134 | 2 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 79 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 8 | 180 | 2 |
| Zach Miller | 5 | 40 | 1 |
It looks like an average-type situation for Matt Ryan. He's working behind a lesser offensive line and doesn't have his No. 1 receiver, but he's still one of the more capable quarterbacks around. This isn't a great defense he'll work against. The Cardinals have a strong pass rush (they like to get after the quarterback) but there are some holes there. Opponents have averaged 272 passing yards against them this year. The Cardinals shut down Mike Glennon (a rookie making his first start), and Cam Newton passed for 308 yards but no touchdowns against them. But Arizona has given up at least 2 TD passes in each of its other five games. There's a good chance, it seems, that Ryan will pass for something along the links of 280-290 yards and a couple of touchdowns. He's averaging 320 yards so far, with 2 TDs in each of his six games. He tossed 3 last week against the Bucs. ... Roddy White (hamstring/ankle) didn't practice at all last week. When Mike Smith said Steven Jackson would practice this week, he didn't say anything about White. We take that as a sign that White probably won't return. That's a blow to the offense -- kind of a double whammy. Arizona has Patrick Peterson; he might be the best cornerback in the game right now. If White's available, Peterson will cover him. But if White sits, not only do the Falcons lose him, but it also will allow Peterson to cover Harry Douglas. Douglas had a strong debut in the starting lineup last week, catching 7 passes for 149 yards and a touchdown. But he's not going to light up Peterson. If the Falcons can get White on the field even as a decoy, it will enhance the chances of Douglas having a good game.
| No. 1 receivers against Peterson | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | No | Yards | TD |
| Marques Colston | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 77 | 0 |
We will re-visit the wide receiver situation later in the week. If White's going to play, we'll move Douglas way up. Right now, our projections assume White won't be around, making Douglas at best a nominal fantasy option. Maybe, as part of the trickle-down process, those in larger leagues can look at Drew Davis. Davis caught 1 pass for 24 yards as a starter last week. This is all supporting evidence that Gonzalez should be headed for a big game (and also that the running backs will catch plenty of passes). ... We don't have much confidence in the Falcons in this game. That's why there's a low grade on Matt Bryant. Wins, points, field goals, extra points; they all tend to be tied together at the kicker position. ... The Falcons Defense doesn't bring much to the table. It's got 14 sacks and 3 interceptions after six games. The team doesn't have a kick returner threat. But Atlanta must be ranked higher than usual this week because it's facing an Arizona offense plagued by one of the league's worst offensive lines. Carson Palmer has been sacked 20 times, and he's thrown 13 interceptions. So he's tending to get sacked about 3 times per week, with 2 interceptions. Atlanta's defense isn't quite as aggressive or good, so we're putting it down for 2-3 sacks and 1-2 interceptions.
