Luke Wilson answers your fantasy football questions. With drafts far and wide just around the corner, we are going jumbo personnel this week: Discussing two AFC West running backs, the case for/against our rankings of fantasy football's two most important New York Jets, revised rookie rankings after a summer of buzz (or lack thereof), ringing in a major anniversary by smuggling some intel out through a crack in the wall, and much more.
Question 1
I’m in a 12 team league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, and 1 DST. How do you recommend I customize the draft/auction settings to push value into the WR position given at a minimum 36 wideouts start weekly.
Kyle Kintner (San Marcos, CA)
My recommendation would be to look at one or two of your league's prior year draft results and see how many receivers went for more than one dollar. Any auction draft is an instanced economy; guys are worth what the winning bidder was willing to pay for them. If the wide receiver auction values are looking a little off, maybe your league ponies up for them a little bit harder than average.
If you go into your custom draft settings and tell it about how many players at a given position you expect will receive bids over $1 then you should see their relative auction values start to adjust up/down toward your league's historical trends fairly quickly. Give it a whirl and let us know how it looks coming out the other end.
Question 2
Most experts are placing Kenneth Walker farther down the draft list than his situation and talent would suggest. He is a top talent, with a solid line and potent offense, little competition, and a head coach who has been known to feed bell-cow backs. A top 5 finish seems well within reach. Do you attribute your lesser projections for him to injury risk, lack of production in the pass game, or something else?
Robert Stolz (Raleigh, NC)
Kenneth Walker has been one of the bigger movers by average draft position over the course of August going in the top 25 picks of nearly all drafts. Our projections for him have revised up over that time, but not as swiftly as his actual ADP. As ever, there's a reason for this disparity.
Our rankings lean on both a player's and a team offense's recent history, and in this case neither have been all that great: Kansas City hasn't fielded a top 12 rushing offense in the 17-game era, and they haven't managed better than 106 yards rushing per game since 2022, putting them in such company as the run games for Cleveland, Las Vegas, Arizona... you get the point. They haven't averaged better than 1.0 rushing scores per game since 2019. Kenneth Walker's career averages don't move the needle much more. For all his talent and home run speed in the open field, his next season with 1100 yards rushing or double-digit touchdowns will be his first.
Now, is there a case to be made for looking past this context to the potential rewards of taking him at his loftier price point? Yes, we agree there is: The Chiefs are clearly trying to take some of the pressure off of Patrick Mahomes to continue being the duct tape they slap on every hole in the boat; paying a running back in his prime over $14 million a year telegraphs true three-down involvement; Walker currently enjoys the lowest degree of competition for touches since his rookie season, which also happens to be his most productive to date.
We have moved with the tide a fair amount: Walker opened as our RB14 in .5 PPR scoring, but he's moved up a good bit over five weeks' worth of updates. But our more moderate upward adjustment is perhaps a good reminder that we've been waiting for the Kenneth Walker breakout season for a while now, and this Emmett Johnson looks game to take a handful of touches per game fairly quickly.
Question 3
I have always "tried" to draft my QB1's back-up late in the draft for insurance purposes, I kind of hate having 3 starters to try and pick from every week. Do you have any suggestions about the best QB1/2 to own?
KEVIN KNIGHT (Stillwater, OK)
My friend, when quarterback is this deep, I think it's time you leaned into the discomfort. Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold have 4 of the last 5 Super Bowl rings — and none of them are typically among the first 10 quarterbacks taken in drafts this year.
Lombardi hoisters aside, there are quarterbacks being taken outside the top 100 of all stripes. Want a prolific pocket passer? Brock Purdy and Jared Goff can both breeze past 4300 yards passing. Want a guy who can take it himself? Jaxson Dart, Kyler Murray and Malik Willis all offer the potential for 8-plus rushing scores. Round it out with general upside cases like Baker Mayfield, Tyler Shough and Jordan Love, and you're going to have a heck of a time finding a backup quarterback that can match the production of even some of these second-tier guys, no matter how bulletproof his supporting cast.
If you're keen to stick with the handcuffing approach, I would urge you to consider the guys from the Rams (Stafford-Simpson), the 49ers (Purdy-Jones), and the Bengals (Burrow-Flacco). High ceiling pass offenses, high output starters, clear and mostly capable backups to plug 'n' play.
Question 4
Can you discuss your rankings/thoughts in Garret Wilson and Breece Hall? An offense led by Geno Smith seems iffy at best and they are ranked very favorably.
Darrell Sooy (West Chester, PA)
This is one where I must respectfully break ranks, cross the picket line and join you in throwing a few tomatoes. I don't buy Garrett Wilson as a top 15 fantasy wide receiver, not this year.
He has pulled that feat off once in three healthy seasons, and that was courtesy of Aaron Rodgers force feeding him the rock from Labor Day thru Halloween (remember that 23-target game? That was fun!). And even in his best fantasy season Wilson collapsed down the stretch in 2024, producing zero top 12 fantasy performances over his final eight games. And Geno Smith, sir, you are no Aaron Rodgers. Too much can go wrong here, Wilson needs everything to go just right to make good on this ADP and I don't buy that he can advance even a couple of spots past the positional ranking he currently occupies. I'm with you on this one.
Breece Hall, on the other hand, probably gets a pass. Even on go nowhere, do nothing offenses, even stuck flailing upstream behind bad offensive lines into the arms of swarming defenders, and even with some knee trouble, Hall has managed 1400 total yards, 8-plus touchdowns or both in each of his three full seasons. He has the skillset to stay on the field in all situations and eat up 20-plus touches most weeks. And I don't see that changing — Braelon Allen can nibble around the edges of the communal workload some, but this is still Hall's show, and his handsome new contract reiterates that fact. Going around where we've got him ranked, it's hard for him to undercut his ADP without injury, i.e. the opposite of how I feel about 'G-Wil'. Win or lose, Frank Reich is gonna run that football.
Question 5
Our league awards 6 points for passing TDs. I’ve customized your cheat sheet for our league’s scoring system. But your newest cheat sheet doesn’t list a QB in the Top 30 overall picks. Could that be accurate??
Richard Love (Salt Lake Cty, UT)
It could indeed! Six-point passing TD scoring is certainly important to account for, but it's also a rising tide that raises all ships; it will move guys like Dak Prescott and Jared Goff ahead of other QBs, but it doesn't drive scarcity. Scarcity is what pushes so many running backs and wide receivers to the top of draft boards.
The song remains pretty well unchanged: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson reprise their roles as the two quarterbacks garnering top 50 ADP, with Drake Maye and Joe Burrow maybe sneaking across that line in 6-point depending on how trigger happy your league is on the position. And that feels right: There are really a lot of quarterbacks with legitimate cases for throwing 28=30 touchdowns this year, which minimizes the gains of hitting on a guy who can throw 35-plus (and those seasons are trickier to predict than you may think).
I understand the temptation to pull the trigger early — once the first of Maye/Burrow come off the board in 6-point, it can feel like you're running to catch the last train. But you're really not: Several of the quarterbacks to top 35 passing touchdowns in recent years will very likely remain available past the top 60 picks in your scoring, including Prescott, Goff, Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford.
That isn't meant to dissuade you from taking one of the top options if you feel strongly about one (or more) of them, but don't let yourself get pressured into such a move by your league's scoring.
Question 6
With Mike McDaniel's comments about riding the "hot hand" at RB, should those of us believing in a potential Hampton breakout be worried that volume will be an issue?
Adam Rich (DePere, WI)
Immediate disclaimer: I may not be the best person to ask, as I am in sharp contrast and contradiction with both popular sentiment and the official FI party line here. I freely admit to carrying prior year Hampton skepticism forward to the present, so weight (or dismiss) my commentary accordingly.
But yes, I think so! I could wax philosophical (and paranoia... cal?) anew, but I think cribbing my own explanation of my bear case on Hampton from the FI staff chat may do the job best:
[2:30 PM] To be fair, I do carry forward prior year Omarion [Hampton] skepticism that is definitely at play here. His college production and physical measurables paint quite the picture, but this guy was ripping apart an ACC schedule that had him facing such vaunted programs as the University of Charlotte and James Madison. He was running through holes I could back my SUV through blindfolded, that doesn't prove anything to me especially when you run a 4.4 and are built like Saquon [Barkley].
[2:32 PM] Price and Hampton are kind of similar picks: Late first round selections for contention-ready NFL teams that just didn't need a whole heck of a lot else at the time, roster-wise. That in and of itself doesn't guarantee that they avoid splitting touches, especially as very young players on teams that are trying to go play February football right now. McDaniel shows up and what's the first thing he does with Oronde Gadsden? Buries him behind older guys who can block!
[2:36 PM] I believe McDaniel truly owns this offense, and I think everything the Chargers have shown us indicates that the two sides of the football are fully partitioned. I would go so far as to theorize that it was a condition of him taking the job that he would largely be left alone. He goes and gets Mitchell, Ingold, they draft Brenen Thompson for him — I think he has carte blanche to do what he wants with both the groceries and the menu here. Is Hampton a significantly better player than the other running backs, sure probably. But we should not be sitting dead red on the fastball here, McDaniel could throw us all the 12-6 slow curve next month.
So that's my fear with Hampton in a nutshell, and I don't think it's too far-fetched. But the counterargument is not a weak one: The Chargers figure to win double digit games again; both Harbaugh/Roman and McDaniel have presided over several run games that saw the lead back score touchdowns by the fistful; McDaniel's Keaton Mitchell affinity could fail to translate to regular season games for a variety of reasons (not the least of which being Mitchell's tendency toward the trainer's table). And then there's Hampton himself: While I question whether he's the caliber of player we've been spoiled into expecting 1st round running backs to be by recent drafts, there's absolutely no arguing that his size-adjusted burst is special. A true 220-pounder going 0-40 like he can is a rare thing, and it could absolutely be the killer app that propels him to greatness this fall.
As it usually does, this dilemma boils down to your risk appetite and how much you accept there's any there in the first place. Running backs taken in the late 1st and early 2nd rounds of drafts need to possess a high ceiling; Hampton absolutely checks that box. But a lot of fantasy drafters need a guy to have a non-injury floor that's also pretty high — I question Hampton's more than the other running backs in his ADP neighborhood. So, as Barry Gibb once posited in song: How deep is your love, Adam?
Question 7
If you were doing a rookie draft this weekend, who are your top 15 rookies for dynasty purposes?
Richard Breuer (Hartford, WI)
Yes, I suppose the summer has shifted the 2026 rookie class landscape just a tad, hasn't it? Do wish you had included whether or not this was your standard 1-QB league or if we were using the superflex format that has taken dynasty by storm, but I'll play around that question to the best of my ability.
I don't think it's betraying the magazine to divulge that Jeremiyah Love is and remains the top rookie in either format, and by a wide margin. We entered the NFL Draft thinking that he was the player with the most true superstar potential, and on that front nothing has changed. After that, we've still got some combination of Carnell Tate, Makai Lemon, Jadarian Price, Jordyn Tyson, and KC Concepcion, with Fernando Mendoza at or toward the top of that group and Ty Simpson at the back of it in superflex. Yes, it's been a disappointing summer for Lemon and Tyson and a concerning preseason for Tate (through minimal fault of his own), but in dynasty we're not punting them too far down the board over short-term stuff.
Right around this part of the board is where you start planting flags. Is Omar Cooper's summer vanishing act something we file under "short-term stuff", or are the Jets already well on their way to inducting him into their Ring of WR Regret alongside Elijah Moore, Denzel Mims, Stephen Hill and Devin Smith? Both he and Elijah Sarratt have been awful quiet since departing the Hoosier State. How far up the board are you pushing the summer darlings: Denzel Boston, Ja'Kobi Lane, Cyrus Allen, Caleb Douglas — and of course, De'Zhaun Stribling? How far do you let Kenyon Sadiq and Eli Stowers (one of whom I faded out of the top two tight ends in the magazine, the other I deeply wanted to) fall because of their rough/AWOL camps? Emmett Johnson, Antonio Williams, Germie Bernard and Jonah Coleman are also guys that should be in frame at this point in rookie drafts, along with Beck, Allar and Klubnik in superflex.
My rookie drafts tend to all be in the can by Memorial Day, but if I had to do it over again, I suppose my board would look something like:
Jeremiyah Love
Carnell Tate
(Fernando Mendoza if superflex; Cooper and Sarratt being church mouse quiet all summer has me just a teensy bit nervous that whatever was in the water in Bloomington is wearing off fast)
Jordyn Tyson
KC Concepcion
(Ty Simpson if superflex; too much upside to let somebody else in your league get their hands on for cheaper than this)
Jadarian Price (I have a lot of short-term and some long-term questions, but the board is riddled with question marks from here on out)
Denzel Boston (Want to put him ahead of Price, but the fantasy gods made him a Cleveland Brown)
Makai Lemon (Brace for very slow start, but the skillset should ultimately translate)
De'Zhaun Stribling (This feels reactionary, but Pearsall's chronic knee suddenly means he's the only WR that's definitely still on this team in 2028)
Antonio Williams (Commanders probably bound for the NFC East cellar this year, but Williams could lead them in targets as early as 2027)
Jonah Coleman (Hard to know exactly where he should go, but drawing rave reviews and neither Dobbins nor Harvey are assured of anything beyond 2026)
Ted Hurst (Buccaneers sound like they love him, and more importantly they need him to contribute ahead of schedule if he can)
Chris Bell (Caleb Douglas stole the show this summer, but Bell would have been a 1st round pick if not for November ACL tear; major run after catch potential with opportunity to stake claim for 2027 and beyond)
(Drew Allar if superflex; same basic argument as Simpson, Allar made strides quickly this summer and Pittsburgh gets it right more often than not)
Ja'Kobi Lane (Also brace for slow start, but prime candidate to come on strong in season's second half)
Kenyon Sadiq
Mike Washington (Yes, Jeanty is insurmountable but being the Corum to his Kyren is officially in play and possibly even as a rookie)
Omar Cooper (But man would it make me nervous to take him even this far down the board)
Hope this helps arrange your board and/or thoughts!
Question 8
I'm in a 12 team half PPR keeper league. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, and 1 TE. I've got the 3rd pick, and my keeper is Puka (in the 11th round). The question is, do I go best available player (likely Chase) and risk my top RB being someone like Breece Hall or Javonte Williams, or draft someone like Taylor, CMC, or Cook ahead of their draft position?
Jeff Hornstein (Miami, FL)
If this were full PPR I would be more amenable to going Chase, but with it only being .5 and a 2-WR lineup minimum that does make this a real puzzler. I play primarily .5 scoring these days, and the difference that half vs. full makes at the top of the respective positional fantasy leaderboards can still be easy to underestimate.
Ja'Marr Chase went for 125 receptions, 1426 total yards and 8 TDs last year, finishing as the WR4 in both .5 and full PPR scoring. In my main .5 leagues that was good for 251.1 fantasy points. The problem is that Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor both produced well over 330, with James Cook not terribly far behind at 285. Now, Chase also endured a massive negative TD regression that saw him score 9 fewer touchdowns despite his reception and target totals holding rock steady — probably he's due for some positive regression, especially if Burrow plays a full slate. But the run on running backs between picks 3 and 22 will in fact be long and terrible; it took everything breaking just right for Javonte Williams to squeeze out 225 points in that same scoring last year.
I won't fault you for opting for the Nacua-Chase combo, that's the kind of monster pairing that will likely print you a few laugher blowout wins over the course of the season. But just know that if you do go that route you better have this year's Javonte Williams queued up coming back around in the 2nd — and in the 3rd, for that matter.
Question 9
I'm in a league where we draft a Team QB. How much would this effect your rankings? Is there a team situation that is a sneaky late pick?
William Yates (North Chili, NY)
Ah yes, the increasingly forgotten Team QB (Buffalo QB, Dallas QB, etc.). Let's see if we can't use this seldom seen setting as a spade to unearth some value.
When we're talking about exploiting Team QB, we're pretty much talking about a situation where the projected starter is cheap, reasonably productive and/or likely to be benched quickly (Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson aren't exactly sneaking up on people), and the backup is clear and has real juice. Predictably, the depth charts where we can find this Goldilocks combination are pretty few and far between: Malik Willis and Kyler Murray are dirt cheap and offer ample rushing value add, but their offenses and/or backup situations are really icky. Jacoby Brissett and Geno Smith are prime candidates to give way to rookies at some point, but it's tough to foresee either of them sprinting out of the shoot if and when they get the call.
But there are a couple of intriguing quarterback rooms, and I'll start with a pretty divisive one: Indianapolis. Daniel Jones is running well outside the top 16 quarterbacks in drafts right now, despite producing as a bonafide QB1 in the early going last year. There could be pre-2025 prejudice creeping into market sentiment here (I'm certainly guilty of Danny Dimes denialism). And even if he were to falter due to injury or an abrupt carriage-to-pumpkin reversion, Anthony Richardson has quietly reassumed position as the direct backup. Love him or hate him, when starting Richardson's one of the best bets in the league this side of Philadelphia to score at least one rushing touchdown each week.
I'll make a similar case for the Seattle QB position. Darnold is a Super Bowl champion now, but it hasn't earned him any particular regard in the fantasy community — he's trickling off draft boards almost as weakly as Jones. And worse, all things being equal he's less likely to miss time than is Jones. But Darnold's ho hum counting numbers last year bely some advanced metrics that were quite fond of his first season in the Pacific Northwest, and his new offensive coordinator is apparently a pretty big branch off of the Kyle Shanahan tree. With the run game behind him a pretty big question mark at the moment, Darnold being asked to make more happen himself in Year 2 wouldn't be too surprising at all.
Oh, and were Darnold to miss a couple of starts? His backup is Jalen Milroe, one of the most exciting dual threat quarterbacks in the league before he's even made an NFL start (I like Drew Lock and all, but c'mon Milroe would be the guy). Those are two Team QBs onto which I think it could be interesting to throw a late pick.
Question 10
I have been with you for about 40 years and have done well! What wr's do you have a fair amount higher than their ADP?
Randy Newland (Sunrise, FL)
That's amazing Randy, you've gone wire to wire. That kind of loyalty deserves a peek behind the curtain.
Without going to deep into the reeds (If we have the consensus WR73 as our WR66 and nobody's around to say it, does it really make a noise?), here's a rundown of the receivers we're especially bullish on, along with an approximation of how much hotter we are than consensus:
- Garrett Wilson (our WR14 by .5 PPR scoring versus consensus' WR20; +6 differential)
- DJ Moore (+5 differential)
- George Pickens (+3)
- Chris Olave (+4)
- Jameson Williams (+4)
- Christian Watson (+4)
- Michael Wilson (+8)
- Jayden Reed (+10)
- Jordan Addison (+8)
- [redacted; check our August 31st cheatsheet's WR38 in half-PPR scoring] (+13)
- [WR39] (+9)
- [WR41] (+8)
Consider this our 40th anniversary present. Is the 40th the ruby anniversary, or the fantasy football heat map anniversary? Pretty sure it's the second one. Anyway, here's to 40 more together!
