Luke Wilson answers your fantasy football questions. Discussing projections on three pillars of the late first round range in fantasy drafts, gaming out some loose drafting strategies, the hunt for this year's Blake Corum, and more.
Question 1
Will you be putting together a strength of schedule vs run/pass defenses that offenses will be going up against for the season?
Daniel Isgro (Lady Lake, FL)
We will, we have, and it can be found on page 155 of the magazine. In addition to the rushing/passing strengths of schedule, we have them for W-L records, sacks & takeaways, points allowed, and touchdowns allowed. Head to your local magazine stand or the website store and grab yourself a copy (if you haven't already).
Question 2
I see you have Amon-Ra St. Brown at 8.4 TDs this year. He has scored 33 times in the last three years. Why are you forecasting such a decline?
Marc Price (Kelowna, BC)
"Under promise, over deliver." You're right, St. Brown has been good for double digit touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. He's also emerged as one of the busiest red zone operators in the league: He's the only player that has drawn 30 targets inside the opposing 20-yard line in each of the last two seasons. As much as you can set your watch by red zone touchdowns, his are certainly toward the top of the list.
The thing is you're better off not setting your watch by it in the first place. Two years ago, Ja'Marr Chase led the league with a whopping 35 looks inside the 20, fully 20 percent of his targets overall. But despite picking up an additional 10 targets in 2025, for Chase last year that number tumbled all the way to 21 (11.3 percent of all targets). CeeDee Lamb was our 2023 red zone target leader (31, 17.1 percent); his red zone targets were cut just about in half the following season (16, 10.5 percent).
Sam LaPorta's return is also no small detail. LaPorta has 20 TDs in his first 42 games, and is now fully healthy. St. Brown led the league in red zone targets last year, but right behind him was Trey McBride. Detroit's new offensive coordinator is Drew Petzing, who last fall oversaw McBride's long-awaited touchdown binge. Second year 'big' Isaac TeSlaa also lurks as a red zone specialist; he scored 4 touchdowns after LaPorta was lost for the year, but with both guys now healthy there is more legitimate competition for involvement near the stripe than St. Brown has had before.
These rates of high value usage are difficult for even the best in the business to maintain. St. Brown is due for some regression, and the Lions have the peripheral personnel to drive that outcome. That said, 8.4 receiving touchdowns is still one of the highest receiving touchdown projections we have on anybody. Under promise, over deliver.
Question 3
Hello, I am in a league where we keep 7 guys. My first six are set (Maye, Gibbs, C. Brown, Nacua, N. Collins, Lamb), but I am trying to decide on my 7th. Candidates are Bucky Irving, but have Christian Watson, Zach Charbonnet, Harold Fannin, and Blake Corum as options. Watson has been inconsistent, Charbonnet is hurt, and Corum is a #2, and we don't have to start a TE. Irving has Gainwell in the backfield now and I am thinking long term, no limit on how long we keep guys.
Ryan Holland (Churchville, PA)
Howdy Ryan. I was prepared to slam down big Harold Fannin's name with gusto, but your league's lack of a TE requirement does in fact complicate matters. Fannin is a great young player, but the quarterback situation there casts a pretty durned long shadow. Newsflash, I know.
There's enough uncertainty with Charbonnet that I'm not going to push real hard for him: Yes, he could return on/ahead of schedule and play his way into a handsome second contract. He could also head into free agency on the heels of a sluggish season following his January ACL injury. I wouldn't hate this option, but it feels uninspired relative to the field. Christian Watson is zesty, and with how Green Bay has chased off all of their other big bodied wideouts they are clearly begging him to just stay on the field for once. But he's rather famously struggled with that part of the job, and besides: You've got Nico Collins as your WR3.
How about we go back to the well with Irving. It feels like a distant memory now, but after closing his rookie season strong the Buccaneers (and fantasy community writ large) were pretty smitten. After a Week 1 stonewalling against Atlanta last September, over the next three weeks Irving casually ripped off 385 total yards. The shoulder injury heard round the world then became the first of an avalanche of injuries that buried the 2025 Buccaneers, but new OC Zac Robinson just powered Bijan Robinson to a scrimmage yardage crown. Locking Irving in as your third running back sounds pretty good to my ears.
... But maybe make double sure your league isn't considering adding tight end as a required position anytime soon.
Question 4
Seems like every year I draft a guy on 90% of my teams nobody else wants. Last year it was Blake Corum. This year it is Ray Davis. Why is there no interest in a guy who is the clear backup to Cook? You can throw Vidal in there too.
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
It's a good question. Like Corum last year, Davis has every chance to consolidate the kind of true handcuff status that is getting harder and harder to come by. Davis was also named a first team All-Pro for his work as a kick returner last year, further indicating that he's a guy with some real juice.
But people get impatient. Davis' two years in the NFL have happened to see James Cook seize total control of the backfield's fantasy production, which often makes a name stagnate in people's minds. It definitely hasn't helped that veteran satellite back Ty Johnson actually outproduced him overall last year and was more of a factor down the stretch in 2024 as well. That recent sequence can give people the impression that a guy has hit a plateau, isn't good enough to force his way into the offense, et cetera.
I agree, it's the kind of oversight that savvy fantasy players exploit. Buffalo has routinely deployed one of the most productive rushing attacks in the league in recent years, and especially since 2023's midseason switch from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady. If we're drafting a short list of 'this year's Blake Corum' candidates, Ray Davis' name is certainly right up toward the top. There hasn't been any talk of Buffalo trying to get Cook's touches down, but there has been some chatter about getting him more involved as a receiver. Stands to reason that if they succeed at doing that then the ruddier Davis is called upon to take on some of the lifting between the tackles.
Question 5
Running backs appear to be taking up the majority of the top spots in half PPR. Any favorite first strategies for the first four rounds based on where you're picking, specifically in 10-man? For example, I'm considering another heavy RB start, i.e. looking to get one of the consensus top 4 running backs to pair with one from the Chase Brown tier and a fringe WR1 (Pickens , Devonta).
Griffin Ross (Darien, CT)
It's a perilous time to be going wide receiver-heavy outside of full PPR scoring. The draft for this year's Fantasy Index Invitational is currently in progress, and three teams went RB-RB thru two rounds (myself included); 20(!) of the first 30 players drafted were running backs.
I think if you're drafting in the back half of the round then going RB-RB is especially advisable. Those drafting outside the top 6 will almost always be able to nab two premium running backs at ADP if not slightly behind it, including Christian McCaffrey (who is already sliding into the back half of the 1st). Our defending champion, Ian Allan's year 2 team is headlined by two of these very running backs.
If you do nail down Bijan, Gibbs or Taylor at the top, personally I would be looking hard for one TE and/or one WR in particular coming back around, and/or one of the aforementioned running backs if one straggles down the board (Chase Brown outside the top 18 strikes me as wishful thinking, but not quite impossible). Long story short, most openings involve taking no less than 2 running backs thru Round 3, unless the board is forcing irrefutable value into your hands.
But that's always a possibility, so as always be prepared to stick to your board and reevaluate throughout your draft(s)!
Question 6
In the 0.5 PPR rankings, Achane is projected significantly more points than Jeanty. In recent years highly drafted running backs took massive leaps their sophomore year. The situation in Vegas has gotten much better as well, especially with the play calling. What's the rationale there?
Tom Fini (Manhasset, NY)
Before we tumble too far down this rabbit hole, an update: At the time that you wrote in, the gap between Achane and Jeanty's projected production was a rather significant 32 half PPR fantasy points. As of Monday's cheat sheet update, that gap had reduced by almost 70 percent, bringing them within 10 points of one another. Achane is still ahead by our math though, so let's touch on why.
Our rankings system pulls in a variety of factors and considerations. Talent, opportunity, coaching changes, injuries, age. But a big one is prior year production, and right there you can probably see where this is headed. Jeanty was deeply inefficient last year: Heading into his Week 16 eruption (against, of all defenses, Houston), Jeanty was sitting at exactly 700 yards rushing on exactly 200 carries. That 3.5 yards per carry stood in sharp contrast with Achane's league-leading 5.67 rate.
You may not find a bigger Ashton Jeanty advocate wearing FI colors than myself: In the FI Invitational, my finger hovered over his name for a solid minute at the No. 7 pick (he went one pick later). But it wouldn't be inaccurate to say that the FI rankings machine is designed to push back on speculative excitement for players in Jeanty's situation. Yes, we like the player, and we really like the new coaching staff; luring big Tyler Linderbaum west was also a massive get for them. It's enough to make one forget: The Raiders haven't averaged 80 rushing yards per game in either of the last two seasons. Every other team in the NFL has averaged at least 89 yards rushing per game in both seasons. They haven't fielded a top 12 rushing offense in a decade. The last rookie running back drafted in the top 10 to run for less than 3.7 yards per carry: Trent Richardson. So yeah, there is a lot of recent history working against us Jeanty believers.
You have to stick with your gut, but probably let's cross our fingers and knock on wood when we're making this Jeanty pick.
Question 7
I'm in a keeper league where we keep 5, and 2 are no brainers: Nacua (16th round pick; 3-year keeper window), and Bowers (8th). I'm also leaning towards Swift (4th) and Olave (6th). For my 5th keeper, my choices are Lamb (1st), St Brown (2nd) and Maye (7th). St. Brown would be my choice (our rules favor keeping receivers, because we only have to start 1 RB), but as a UNC grad I really liked having Drake in my lineup last year. For what it's worth, I'm the defending champ.
Tom Hicks (Durham, NC)
Congratulations on last year's conquest, Tom. Now begins the important work of running it back.
I think Lamb and St. Brown make a lot more sense than Olave, honestly. Yes, they technically cost you more - but if you have 12 teams in your league keeping 5 players apiece, in theory almost all of the 60 best players are being retained by their prior year owners. That means a 1st round pick eats more like a 5th-6th round pick, your 2nd more like a 6-7 (heh, see what I... nevermind), etc. Kicking Lamb loose over Olave to net move from the 11th round into the 6th? With this core? Unless you can somehow recoup Lamb with the '1st' round pick you'd be 'saving', I'm not with that.
That delivers us to Maye vs. Swift, and that's a bit of a toughie. With Kyle Monangai now set to hit the shelf for the start of the season, Swift's market is revising up; he went shockingly early in this year's Invitational. But I won't begrudge you shirking convention and sticking with your boy Maye. This is supposed to be fun after all, and the rest of your burgeoning death machine might could cover the value hemorrhage anyway.
Keep the big three receivers, keep Bowers, and then if you keep Maye see if you can't flip one of the receivers for a top shelf running back after the draft — if you're carrying three of the top 5 wideouts out of the draft you're pretty much a one-man market maker anyway. And probably Public Enemy No. 1 to your league mates.
