Luke Wilson answers your fantasy football questions. Measuring more keepers against one another, preferred snake draft slots, how it could make sense for Ja'Marr Chase to be a second-round pick in a PPR league, another round of Emeka Egbuka ink, and more.
Question 1
I'm in a 12-team .5 PPR league where we can keep 1 player. Who do you think I should keep between Jeanty (1st Rd), Taylor (2nd), McBride (3rd) — or Travis Etienne (8th)? I also draft 1st overall. Could go Taylor as my keeper and draft either Jeanty, Hampton, Cook or Ja'Marr Chase. Assuming I keep Taylor, who should I take with the top pick?
Perry Rose (Clarks Green, PA)
Interesting dilemma here. While I do like Jeanty quite a bit, obviously you can't burn the keeper on him — if you want him you have to first let him back in the player pool, then use the 1.01 on him, otherwise you would be giving away the right to hold Taylor for net 3rd round or McBride for net 4th round value. That would be unwise.
This is a bang-bang call on keeping Taylor vs. McBride. Our rankings have both as great keeper values at those prices, consensus ADP is echoing that strong value right now — you really can't go wrong with either one. Probably it comes down to what you do with that shiny 1.01, which to me is 100% Chase vs. Jeanty.
While I could wax on about all these scenarios, I'll go out on a limb and assume you're not looking to go 'zero RB' here. In that case, no reason not to take that Jonathan Taylor and grab Chase at 1.01. Even as high as I am on Jeanty, Chase can easily finish as the top WR in all scoring formats — but PPR especially. I like Jeanty's odds of finishing as the RB1 better than Taylor's, but certainly not by enough to reach past Chase to bet on it. Might be a bit boring, but I'd rather be boring in the playoffs than exciting on the couch. Plus, it jibes good and hard with our current rankings. Whichever 1-2 punch you settle on, enjoy — and there's definitely a case to be made for taking both RBs. Read on to see why.
Question 2
What is the best draft spot in a 12-team redraft serpentine draft?
Richard Kamps (Hilbert, WI)
For my money it's still a draft slot in the top 3. I know that's boring, I know you can make arguments for other spots based on scoring, positional scarcity based on league lineup size, etc., and I certainly know there are advocates for all snake draft start positions. I get all that.
The chance to grab three top 25 players and five top 50 players is where I want to be. In last year's FI Invitational, Todd Zola had the 1.03, which allowed him to draft his choice of Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs (he took Robinson), and with his following picks afforded him the option to take Trey McBride, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, George Pickens, and Jameson Williams around their respective ADPs. Nobody past the 24th pick ever got a shot at McBride; nobody in the back half of the 3rd round ever had a chance at JSN, etc.
The hit rate (and non-injury floors) on picks in the top 40-ish players is strong. Players in/around that 50-60 range is where you get a lot of buyer's remorse: The disgruntled Terry McLaurin, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, DJ Moore, DK Metcalf, early season-killing TreVeyon Henderson, Xavier Worthy, Calvin Ridley, also early season-killing RJ Harvey, Aaron Jones, Travis Hunter: All taken between picks 45 and 64 in the Invitational.
Obviously, everyone has to make picks in these parts of the board. But I want to make mine from the pick of the litter around 25 and 50, not from what luck leaves for me at 35 and 60.
Question 3
Just curious as to how Ja'Marr Chase could be ranked at #13 overall in my custom cheat sheet (Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust). We play PPR and I can't see where our scoring is that different from standard scoring.
John Sharp (Windsor, CA)
Looking at your league-specific cheat sheet (Reminder: Cheat Sheet access comes with the ability to generate rankings based specifically on your league's scoring/format), I see from your custom cheat sheet that your league gives 0.15 points per rushing/receiving yard. That means that your league is especially sensitive to a shifting tide in the NFL.
For a variety of reasons, teams are throwing the football fewer times per game, and down the field at a much lower rate: The average NFL team completed 32 passes for 210 yards per game last year — both the lowest figures the league has seen since 2006. What's more, all five of the lowest average yards gained per completion in league history have occurred in the last five seasons.
We are living in a 2-high safety, 'keep everything in front' league more than ever, which has made it much harder for wide receivers to punch their way up the scrimmage yards leaderboard. NFL defenses have gone smaller and more athletic at safety and outside linebacker: Most linebackers have the speed to mirror a running back trying to get to the edge now, and there are no more 'in the box' safeties — they can all cover, which is why we're seeing cornerbacks bounce back and forth between being listed as safeties and corners from one year to the next when that was never really a thing before. They're all outfielders now.
In 2020's defense-optional COVID season, WRs maintained parity with the RBs: Stefon Diggs finished 4th in total yards, and 12 pass catchers (11 WRs and Travis Kelce) finished in the top 24. The next season Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel and Justin Jefferson all finished top 5, with 12 WR/TEs in the top 25. Ten non-RBs make it into the top 25 the next year; 12 again in 2023.
But the last two seasons have been a much different story: Only 6 WRs make the top 25 in 2024 — only 3 in the top 18. Last year there were also only 6 in the top 25, although 5 made it into the top 16. We already have running backs taking control of the total yards landscape again, and that's before the additional premium your league places on each yard gained. If someone takes Nacua or Chase in the top 6 picks in your league, they'll be lucky if more than one of the top 15 running backs makes it back to them in the 2nd round. Any advantage created by Chase/Nacua has likely been nullified, and you're scrambling to catch up at what is once again fantasy's most important position.
All in all, this boils down to plain ol' positional scarcity, albeit scarcity exacerbated by Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust scoring. And, based on the ongoing rash of big money extensions for running backs lately, the likely revivification of the running back wage scale.
Question 4
Can you please explain why you have Emeka Egbuka much lower in your rankings than other sites. He started off strong last season before dealing with a couple of injuries. Other rankings I have seen have him 20 plus spots higher.
Brian Rowell (Saint Johns, MI)
Great question Brian. You're right, our season long rankings (and implied ADP) on Egbuka are well out of line with consensus right now. But one of the distinguishing features of the FI Cheat Sheet is that it bakes in some peripheral assumptions that a lot of other rankings outlets do not. One of those assumptions is availability.
Given how both he and the Tampa Bay offense were crumpled up and punted into orbit hampered by injuries over the second half of last season, there was always going to be a little bit of a 'hangover effect' that lingered from the end of 2025 into our early handicapping of the offense. Between that, uncertainty in the exact distribution of targets in a post-Mike Evans hierarchy, and the Buccaneers and Mayfield camps increasingly at odds over his contract, our initial rankings were absolutely intended to urge caution regarding another summer of Egbuka hype. Especially with his ADP primed to climb even higher over the month of August.
With training camp now fully in session and some of the assumptions underpinning the Egbuka bull case continuing to solidify, he and the offense were slated for a positive revision in the next rankings update, which was just published yesterday. But for what it's worth I second some skepticism here: It may not last, but a healthy Chris Godwin is no target share laughing matter and the Buccaneers aren't paying Kenneth Gainwell $7 million bucks to read the phone book. In Atlanta, new OC Zac Robinson got his cousin Bijan to 79 receptions for 820 yards last season. Gainwell and Bucky Irving were both in the top 7 in the league in running back target shares last year; now they're in the same backfield. Tampa Bay recreated Bijan in the aggregate, Moneyball style.
For however long they're all on the field together Godwin, Gainwell, and Irving (sounds like a law firm) should be good for around 15 receptions a week. That isn't fatal to Egbuka hype, but it's worth holding up next to it with one eye closed.
Editor's Note: Jalen McMillan's latest injury definitely isn't bad news for his outlook, but since Egbuka's playing time isn't likely to increase much — he was already going to play a ton — this isn't as big of a development for him as it very likely is for rookie Ted Hurst.
Question 5
Pick 2 keepers: Drake Maye (10th Rd) Dalton Kincaid (17th) Jaylen Warren (6th) I know Maye and Kincaid have the value, and Warren's redraft ADP is probably around the 6th anyway. But, with it being a keeper league he will get bumped forward a couple rounds. Any help would be great!
Bill Heeney (Philadelphia , PA)
Sounds from your framing like you're coming into this decision already wanting to hang onto Warren. If so, nothing wrong with that: You're right, his ADP in .5 scoring has him going around the 6th round in 12-team leagues, and that's before you adjust that up 1 round for each player teams are allowed to keep in your league. He could return value at that price. But I think it's worth acknowledging that in March Rico Dowdle followed Mike McCarthy (a.k.a., President of the Rico Dowdle Fan Club) up to Pittsburgh. That led many to presume that Dowdle would be first through the door for rushing work; Pittsburgh beat has it looking exactly that way right now.
Also, the keeper effect on Warren's relative value cuts all ways. Drake Maye is going in the 5th round of drafts, pin high with Burrow to be either the QB3 or 4. I'm no fan of drafting QB early, but locking in a guy that could finish top 2 at his position in the 10th round is always the right answer, position be darned. You have to keep Maye at that price.
This comes down to how much faith you have in Dalton Kincaid's left knee. Because Buffalo absolutely wants Kincaid to be one of their top two target earners this year: Kincaid's 2.77 yards per route run vaporized the entire position last year, Trey McBride and Tucker Kraft included. But Kincaid is credited with only running 206 routes last year — nine fewer than Kraft, despite his playing 12 games to Kraft's 8. Therein lies the trouble with Kincaid: Whether for injury management or blocking/personnel reasons, he has seldom played more than 50-60 percent of the team's snaps since his rookie season. Last year Kincaid had 4-6 receptions and 100 yards or a touchdown in 6 of his 12 games. In the other 6 (most of which came while the knee was again bothering him) he averaged 1.7 receptions for 35 yards, playing fewer than 40 percent of the offense's snaps each time.
The value is there to more than justify keeping Kincaid for that bargain basement price; warts and all, he gave his owners 7 top 12 performances over his first 9 games. That's the direction I'd go, with the caveat that if you happen to know most of the players being kept by your competition are running backs then that could be enough to justify capitulating to scarcity and retaining Warren.
