PHILADELPHIA (at Green Bay):
The Eagles have been the ultimate boom-or-bust team. Five times they’ve scored 30-plus points. But they haven’t scored over 20 points in any of their other four games, and in the most recent of those two, the offense didn’t get in the end zone at all. What the heck? Green Bay just lost Aaron Rodgers and is on a short work week -- trying to figure out what to do with its offense. This enhances the probability that Philadelphia’s unorthodox system might work this week. The Packers couldn’t stop the Bears from marching up and down the field on Monday night. ... Nick Foles has the hot hand right now -- 7 TDs against Oakland. Tough to sit him down against anyone right now, and the defense he’ll face had problems with Josh McCown on Monday night. Foles had the one remarkably bad game this year, completing only 38 percent against a soft Dallas defense -- 80 yards and no touchdowns. But he’s been great in all of his other games -- outstanding in a half against the Giants, 296 and 3 TDs at Tampa Bay, and the record day at Oakland. Note that all three of those games were on the road. If we toss out the Vikings (who don’t really have a big-time passing attack), the Packers
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have allowed an average of 285 passing yards per game, with 14 TDs in seven games. Foles doesn’t have much experience, but we’re going with that kind of projection for him. ... For reasons we can’t explain, Riley Cooper turns into Larry Fitzgerald when Foles is at quarterback. In three games Foles has started, Cooper has caught 5 TDs and finished with 120, 88 and 139 yards. He’s finished south of 30 yards in all six of the other games, with just one touchdown. Foles is starting this game, so we’re putting Cooper way higher than usual. But we’re not bailing on DeSean Jackson. While not by a huge margin, he’s still the top Philadelphia receiver. Foles has helped Jackson go over 130 yards twice, and that pair has hooked up for 4 TDs. Michael Vick has quarterbacked most of the season, but he’s thrown only 2 TDs to Jackson. ... Jason Avant seems to be the opposite of Cooper. His big games have come with Vick at quarterback. He hasn’t been a factor in any of the games that Foles has played (even though Foles has put up huge passing numbers). We’ll pass on Avant. ... There’s not much difference between the two tight ends, Brent Celek and Zach Ertz. Neither one seems to be quite good enough to put into a fantasy lineup. They’re both averaging 25-27 yards per game. Celek has outscored Ertz 3-1, but Ertz has finished with more yards four games in a row. They both caught touchdowns last week. ... LeSean McCoy is a great talent, but he’s not quite the same guy when Foles is at quarterback. When Vick is in there, that opens things up for the running game because linebackers have to respect the threat of quarterback keepers. The ground game drops in effectiveness when the Eagles to plug in Foles, who’s a straight-up pocket passer. It’s really pretty remarkable.
| McCoy With Vick | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Att | Yds | Avg | TD |
| at Wash. | 31 | 184 | 5.9 | 1 |
| S.D. | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| K.C. | 20 | 158 | 7.9 | 1 |
| at Den. | 16 | 73 | 4.6 | 0 |
| at NYG (half) | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 1 |
| NYG (half) | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| McCoy With Foles | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Att | Yds | Avg | TD |
| at NYG (half) | 7 | -4 | -0.4 | 0 |
| at T.B. | 25 | 116 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Dall. | 18 | 55 | 3.1 | 0 |
| at Oak. | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
The stats there leave out the receiving production, of course. McCoy is averaging 36 receiving yards per game this year, and he caught a touchdown last week at Oakland. But you can see the run differential. He’s a much more productive runner when they’re running the read-option stuff with Vick. McCoy averages 3.4 yards per carry when Foles is playing; he averages 5.4 per attempt with Vick. For this week, they’re playing a Green Bay defense that ranks 6th against the run. The Packers have been tough (though they got knocked off course on Monday night, letting the Bears run for 171). But we’re going with a low, conservative projection for McCoy. He appears high on our list mainly because of his ability as a pass catcher. ... The Eagles Defense looks like a lesser unit. It’s had a lesser pass rush this year (just 19 sacks in nine games). Seneca Wallace allowed himself to be sacked 4 times on Monday night, so maybe Philadelphia can finish above-average in that category. But it looks like the Packers will be careful with Wallace as a passer; he wasn’t trying any high-risk passes against the Bears.
