BALTIMORE (vs New York Jets): This is a playoff-type game for the Ravens. Sitting at 4-6, they need to win to entrench themselves in the wild-card race. They can't afford to lose to the 5-5 Jets, who are tied for that final spot right now. So the urgency should be there. This is one Baltimore should win. But putting up big numbers looks unlikely. They'll be to hold down New York's offense, which will reduce the need to score touchdowns, and the Jets have a solid defense. This looks like a 23-10 type game. ... Ray Rice has struggled this year. He went for 131 yards last week in Chicago, but that was against a defense that's really been struggling against the run. Prior to that game, Rice was averaging under 3.0 per carry and had been under 50 yards in all but one game. So he's not "fixed." He just happened to benefit from playing against a bad defense on a sloppy field. That won't be the case this week. New York has the No. 1 run defense in the league; nobody's been able to run on them all year (they're allowing only 73 yards per game). The Ravens have scored only 6 rushing touchdowns, while New York has allowed only 6 -- so 12 TD runs in 20 games, to give you an idea of Rice's scoring potential. This is a game where he'll be hard pressed to get over 60 rushing yards, and we're not promising he'll even hit 50. Bernard Pierce will be mixed in and should get 20-40 percent of the workload. Rice, at least, is averaging 20 yards per game as a pass catcher. Lesser matchup. ...
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Joe Flacco, on the other hand, should have one of his better games. If the Ravens can't run, they'll need to pass more. That's how New York's other games have tended to play out. That team ranks first against the run, but it's a bottom-10 pass defense, allowing 267 passing yards per game, with 19 TDs (almost 2 per game). Flacco is averaging 247 yards, and he's thrown 13 TDs, so you get an idea of where he should end up -- close to 260 yards and 2 TDs. And he could bust it out some. The Ravens have been held under 60 rushing yards in four games this year. Flacco has averaged 325 passing yards in those four games, with 2 TDs in each of them. He should be an above-average quarterback this week. ... We're going above-average on Flacco, so we're also slotting his pass catchers higher. Torrey Smith is the No. 1 guy; not a great scorer, but he's averaging 79 yards per game. Marlon Brown doesn't catch as many balls, but he's more of a red-zone option because of his size and height. Brown has outscored Smith 5-2. Brown didn't play on Sunday because of a knee injury but says it's no big deal -- he says he'll definitely play. Further down, in supporting roles, you've got Jacoby Jones and Tandon Doss. Neither one has scored in the last four games, and they've both been under 40 yards in all four of those games. Jones will return kickoffs, Doss will return punts, and they're both above-average in those roles. ... Dallas Clark isn't a big part of the passing game. He's been under 15 receiving yards in four of his last six games. He's usually not even on the field. But he's got some red zone ability; he's caught 3 TDs in his last five games. ... Using the offense-defense numbers, Justin Tucker projects to be a top-5 kicker this week. He's averaging 8.0 points per game, and the Jets are allowing opposing kickers 8.6. The Ravens are at home in a backs-to-the-wall type game, which works in his favor. ... We're moving the Ravens Defense way up in the ratings this week. It's a good unit anyway; only one team playing this week has more sacks. And here it goes against a young quarterback whose confidence appears to be shot. Geno Smith has thrown 16 interceptions and lost 4 fumbles, so he's at an even 2 turnovers per game. And the Jets have allowed 35 sacks, the 4th-most in the league. New York has also had 5 TDs scored on returns, 3rd-most in the league. Baltimore is playing at home and needs the win to get back in the playoff hunt -- it's a playoff-type game for them. Dennis Pitta (hip) is returning to practice, so he might return to the lineup in Week 13-14.
