CAROLINA (vs. Tampa Bay):
The Panthers will win this game; they’re better than Tampa Bay. They are, it seems, the off-the-radar Super Bowl possibility. The tendency is to focus on Seattle, Denver, New Orleans and New England. But ultimately, when you get to February, the teams with the elite defenses tend to emerge. Baltimore and San Francisco last year. The Giants, with a hot defense, were able to beat the Patriots in two Super Bowls. Pittsburgh’s been to three of the last nine Super Bowls with a good defense. Baltimore’s won two. Carolina definitely has the best defense in the league, and it’s not working with a pop-gun offense, either. Think about it. As for this week, however, we envision a lower-scoring game. Tampa Bay isn’t in Carolina’s class, but it’s a hot team right now, and it’s playing sound defense. ... We have no interest in the Carolina running game. The Bucs rank 9th against the run, and they don’t let you score that way. Of the 27 TDs allowed by this defense, only 5 have come on runs. The Panthers got two of those, of course, in a 31-13 win a month ago, but we’re looking at overall tendencies, rather than specific plays. Since Greg Schiano showed up in Tampa, these teams have played three times, and Carolina hasn’t had a 50-yard running back in any of those games. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will split the traditional tailback duties. Neither of these guys has run for 50 yards in any of the team’s last six games. Take away Cam Newton (who’s running for 35 yards per game on scrambles) and Carolina is averaging only 91 rushing yards per game. Mike Tolbert is more likely to score than either of those backs. When the ball gets inside the 3, they like to bring him in and leave Williams and Stewart on the sidelines. Tolbert has scored 6 TDs (4 run, 2 rec), which is four more than Williams and Stewart combined. That’s what we’re looking at this week. Less rushing production than usual, and maybe there’s a rushing touchdown somewhere along the line. Tolbert, by the way, averages 32 yards per game (23 run, 9 rec). ... Cam Newton is becoming a franchise-type quarterback, but what’s weird is that he’s actually doing less and the offense is gaining fewer yards. Newton averaged 253 passing yards per game as a rookie, and he was at 242 last year. Now he’s way down at 214. His rushing production has also declined. Carolina’s team rushing production has fallen from 151 to 131 to 126 yards per game the last three years. They’re also, oddly, not scoring any more points. The offense scored 47 touchdowns in Newton’s rookie year. This year, it’s on

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pace to finish with 41 -- one more than last season. You might point to Newton’s decision making or accuracy; his completion percentage has risen from 58 to 62 percent. But that’s just a reflection of the kind of passes he’s throwing. He’s settling for more short completions -- he actually averaged a yard more per attempt last year, when he was running downfield more often. Newton also is on pace, believe it or not, to finish with more interceptions than he did in 2012. The big driver on this team, it seems, isn’t any development or maturity by Newton; it’s the team’s defense -- that’s why the Panthers are 8-3 instead of 5-6. But where were we? Yes, fantasy football ... the Bucs. Tampa Bay likes to take away the run, so Newton should be busier than usual on Sunday. The Bucs have allowed 22 TD passes, and that includes seven straight games with at least 2 TD passes. They’re also allowing a below-average 261 passing yards per game. So this is a week where Newton should do more. He was very good in the earlier meeting, passing for 221 yards and 2 TDs, with no interceptions, and adding another 50 yards and a touchdown as a runner. For this game, we’re thinking about 220-230 passing yards is what to look for, with about 2 TDs. When you factor in that Newton will call his own number around the goal line (5 TDs in 11 games), he’s got an excellent chance to finish with 2 TDs, and he might sneak up to 3. ... With Tampa Bay’s tendency to allow touchdown passes, it’s a good situation for the receivers. Greg Olsen has emerged as their No. 1 threat in the red zone; he’s scored in four of his last five games. Steve Smith, meanwhile, is their main pass catcher; he’s gone over 60 yards three weeks in a row. The Bucs have Darrelle Revis, who’s a good shutdown corner, but Revis left his game last week with a groin injury. Those kind of one-on-ones seem to bring the best out of Smith anyway; he did fine against Aqib Talib two weeks ago. Smith isn’t a big scorer; he’s caught only 3 of the team’s 17 TD passes. Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn don’t catch as many passes as Smith, but they’re almost as likely to score. Ginn caught a touchdown against New England and dropped a 50-yard score at Miami. ... Graham Gano looks like a middle-of-the-pack kicking option. He’s facing a defense that’s allowing 7.8 kicking points per game, which is more than most teams, but Gano is averaging only 7.1 points, which is slightly below average. Even in the team’s 8 wins, Gano has averaged only 7.5 per game. We tend to like kickers from winning teams (and Carolina will win this game) but Gano doesn’t seem to grade out as a top-5 guy at his position right now. ... The Panthers Defense is fast developing into the best in the league. It’s shutting people down. If you’re using yards and points, it needs to get a nudge upwards. But it’s not as dominant in typical fantasy formats. Mike Glennon has thrown only 4 interceptions in 8 games, so he’s taking care of the football. Carolina has scored only 2 TDs on returns of takeaways, while the Bucs have allowed only 1 of those, so nothing special there. Ted Ginn, Jr. isn’t a big-time kick returner. For sacks, Carolina should rank in the top 10. It’s got the big-time front, and it sacked Glennon 3 times in the earlier meeting.