It is 24 hours to Sunday, but it's just 8 hours or so until the first two playoff games, which come today. I've entered a playoff fantasy league where you pick any 14-player roster you want before the playoffs start, then can only change your 8-player lineup -- but not your roster -- after that.
A couple of years ago, when the Packers went 15-1 and the Saints also looked pretty good, I loaded up on Packers and Saints in one of these leagues. Both teams, of course, were bounced in the divisional round, torpedoing my chances. Last year I had a lot of Broncos, which also flopped. This year I am again favoring Broncos, but going with a little more balance. Still tweaking it, too, but I'll let you know what the final roster is when I'm complete in a comment below. OK, on to the four games.
Kansas City at Indianapolis: To me the X factor in this game is Andrew Luck. Can he put the Colts on his back and pull out a win? Every where else, aside from the game being in Indy and them having a more clutch kicker, the matchup seems to favor Kansas City. Better defense. Better running game. More proven coaching staff. I don't place much stock in the meeting a couple of weeks ago. I think Kansas City's offense should have a lot of success in this game, and the question is whether Luck can keep up. Fantasy-wise, I have little to no interest in the Colts receivers or runners, since I don't think any are or will be real go-to guys. If you want a sleeper, it's somebody like DaRick Rogers or LaVon Brazill, but I wouldn't invest in either. I'll take Kansas City 24, Indianapolis 20.
New Orleans at Philadelphia: The Saints haven't won a road playoff game. We get it. It's not as if they've been just horrible in the process of losing games at San Francisco, Seattle and Chicago the last few years. Is Philadelphia, which was kind of fortunate to knock off Dallas last week, really the kind of sure thing to invest in? Outdoors though it is, I think New Orleans' passing game should be pretty good. They don't have Pierre Thomas, which I'm thinking will probably benefit Khiry Robinson more than anyone. I am not sure Darren Sproles still has it and don't think Mark Ingram ever did. Brees, Graham, Colston, those are the players I'd invest in. For the Eagles, well, their offense should be good, and LeSean McCoy in particular should be pretty much unstoppable. It is Nick Foles' first playoff appearance, Chip Kelly too, and I think we should be mindful of their lack of a track record when considering them. It's supposed to be cold, but otherwise weather shouldn't be horrible. I'm going to pick yet another road team: Saints 27, Eagles 20.
Chargers at Bengals: The only thing that gives me pause about this game is that Andy Dalton hasn't played well in his previous playoff appearances, and I guess also that quirky fact that the last four Super Bowl winners have played at Philadelphia in the Eagles' home opener (and this year, that team was San Diego!). Setting aside that, you've got a talented offense and strong defense at home, where the Bengals haven't lost all year, against a team that snuck into the playoffs only when Kansas City gagged a 41-yard field goal. I think San Diego's offense has some potential in this game, but I also think Cincinnati is the most likely team to win this weekend, so I'm not touching any Chargers. I understand that Giovani Bernard is a fashionable fantasy pick, but I kind of think BenJarvus Green-Ellis will be better in this particular matchup. We'll see. Great matchup for A.J. Green. Injury wise it sounds like Cincinnati will have both tight ends available, so neither can reasonably be used. It now sounds like weather -- snow, specifically -- might be an issue, so I am ratcheting the score back slightly. I'll call it Bengals 2o, Chargers 14.
49ers at Packers: Weather is the great equalizer, and it's going to be really, really cold for this game. The 49ers have a better defense, but the Packers have a better offense, and they're playing at home. I admit I have no idea what's going to happen here, so I am avoiding both teams in my playoff league -- just don't see a clear favorite here. The problem is that whoever wins this game certainly can make a playoff run, go into Seattle and win, or Carolina if I'm right about New Orleans knocking off Philadelphia. But unsure as I am about who will win, you either need to roll the dice with Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, and Jordy Nelson, or avoid the game altogether. I'm avoiding it. I think this is a coinflip game where one team wins 23-20 or 20-17. Give it to one with the better defense, 49ers 20, Packers 17.
Enjoy the games.
