Four games to play over the next two days, and I don't mind saying I'm glad that I'm not betting any of them. Three of the games have sizable point spreads, but if I were picking against those spreads, I'd take the underdog in at least two and possibly three of the games. The fourth is basically a pick 'em, and it should be; it will no doubt come down to the final drive, final series.
But enough of my yapping. Let's look at the games themselves.
New Orleans at Seattle: I have fond memories of this matchup, as Seattle's dominance of the Saints offense in Week 13 won me a money league Super Bowl in Week 13. I can only imagine what my opponent, who needed a pittance out of the Drew Brees-Marques Colston tandem but didn't get it, was feeling. Can lightning strike twice? I don't think so. Note that I thought New Orleans would win in Philly last week, and I believe they can -- can -- win this one, too. I don't think it will work out that way, but I expect New Orleans' offense to be better here than it was in the previous meeting. I like Marshawn Lynch, in a game where conditions (wind, rain) will work against the passing attacks. I like Percy Harvin as a roll the dice type of play, as I think they'll give him some short throws and hope he can turn one into a big gainer. It's not clear whether Pierre Thomas will play, but the uncertainty has me inclined to avoid every Saints running back, unless he is ruled out, in which case there's a little more value in the others. But this is still New Orleans and I don't see them having the patience to pound away with the ground game.
I am going to call this one a good, close game that comes down to the end, but ultimately I can't see Seattle stumbling at home when their strength, defending the pass, matches up well with what New Orleans does best. I'll call it Seattle 27, Saints 24.
Indianapolis at New England: Somebody posted something recently that showed that Tom Brady's recent playoff history isn't much better than Peyton Manning's. Just kind of interesting. It is going on a full decade now since Brady won a title, which just reminds you how tough it is to win a Super Bowl, even if you're in the playoffs every year. I don't think New England is the best of the divisional round hosts, but they're the home team who I'd be most surprised if they lost. Because Indianapolis really doesn't have much going for it beyond Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton. Their running game is poor. Their defense is bad. New England's defense should be able to cook up some things to frustrate Luck. As for New England's offense, they should be able to do pretty much whatever they want. They'll run it, they'll have some success passing it. They'll score a lot.
I can see New England building a big lead, with Edelman, Amendola and some sort of running back tandem (probably Blount and Vereen) being very productive. Then Luck slings his way back into it to make things interesting, probably not with Hilton, who will get most of the coverage, but some sort of combo of Brazill/Rogers/Fleener. But I'll call it New England 34, Indianapolis 24.
San Francisco at Carolina: Sometimes you get the thought you want to go against the grain, predicting some sort of wild slugfest, or saying one team will blow the other one out. But there just doesn't seem to be much profit in that kind of rationale here. Both teams have really good defenses, neither offense is what you would call explosive, and it just appears certain to be a close, tough game. Where I guess I do differ from a lot of people is that I think Carolina's going to win this game. Part of it is that they're home, part of it is that they've won all their close games over the last half a season, part of it is I just think they're a little hungrier, maybe a little more determined. I sort of view San Francisco, since they went to the Super Bowl last year and won up in Green Bay, as thinking they're going to win this game before they actually play it. So in the final period, the final drive or two, it will be Cam Newton who makes the big runs and the big throws, and Colin Kaepernick who doesn't.
It would be nice if Carolina had a healthy Steve Smith, but at this point I'm not sure if Smith is exaggerating his knee injury or downplaying it. He keeps tossing out these percentiles of how healthy he is and I don't know if he's trying to lull the 49ers into a false sense of security or what. Bottom line is he's three weeks removed from a sprained knee and it's got to limit him somewhat, so I'm avoiding him despite his big-play potential and favorable playoff history. Still, and I admit it's just a feeling, but I think Carolina gets the win and heads up to Seattle next week. I'll call it Carolina 20, San Francisco 17.
San Diego at Denver: I remember previewing this matchup for the Weekly during the season and thinking Denver would easily march up and down the field. It didn't happen then, so I am wary of being too too confident it will happen now. San Diego clearly can win this game -- they already did. But, it sounds like they won't have Ryan Mathews, or if they do he'll be very limited. If he is inactive, which is possible, Ronnie Brown becomes the very cheap option to fill out a divisional round lineup. San Diego has been running the ball very well, Brown showed last week he has some functional legs left, and that's how to beat this Denver offense; keep them off the field.
When it comes down to it, though, San Diego has an ordinary defense that shouldn't be able to stop Denver's offense. It will cause occasional problems, as it did some series in the earlier meeting, and it will also have series where Denver zips down the field without even facing a third down. I think there will be more of those this time. I'm putting Denver down for a 31-24 win, although a small part of me thinks just maybe San Diego can pull this one out. It'd be nice if they had a healthy Mathews, though.
Enjoy the games.
