All over this page, Ian Allan has provided your detailed statistical breakdowns of these games. It's the same process we go through each week during the season -- calculating and ranking each player based on expected team production according to what teams have done previously, and what opponents have allowed. But, who is going to win?
A lot of predictions, I think, start with a conclusion, and then cherry pick facts to support it. Here's an example: Peyton Manning can't lose this game at home in his record-breaking season. You then go through and pick the stuff that supports it: won the last playoff meeting with Belichick/Brady, was clobbering them in New England until the Broncos started turning the ball over, is home with the superior offense, etc.
Basically you can't remove the human element from predictions, which begins with a gut feeling of which team will win. As the seconds ticked away on Broncos-Chargers and 49ers-Panthers last week, everyone had a back of their mind idea about who would win the games this week. I'm not sure I can totally set those instincts aside, but I'll try.
Patriots at Broncos: Taking the human element out of this game, the Broncos have the better offense, and the Patriots have the better defense. This is in terms of scoring: Denver's record-setting offense was 10 points better during the season, and its defense was 4 points worse. Year after year with these high-scoring offenses, we tend to see them cool off in the postseason. As a most recent example, it happened to the 2007 Patriots. It happened to the Broncos versus the Chargers defense last week. And it will probably happen to them again tomorrow. They're not going to score 37 points; 27 is more likely. And then you factor in the defense they're facing, which played its best ball, despite all the injuries, late in the year, allowing 7, 20 and 17 points in its last three.
You can probably see where I'm going with this: I think New England can keep Denver's offense in check. They'll stick Aqib Talib on Demaryius Thomas and make the Broncos work for their yards and especially -- as Ian has pointed out recently -- points. New England has had the ultimate bend-without-breaking defense, and one more week of that might be in store.
Then you get to the human element. Bill Belichick is a better head coach than John Fox, and Tom Brady has been a better clutch quarterback than Peyton Manning. Now, Brady himself hasn't been as great in recent postseasons, and I even think some of his early clutch play was overrated. He got an all-time gift in the tuck-rule game, and his game-winning drive against the Rams for a 48-yard field goal; sorry, nothing special. Just completed a couple of easy, short throws against a defense that was giving them to him and his receivers made the plays to get the offense into range. Big deal.
Whatever. New England definitely has the better defense in this game. I think it's got the coach less likely to get too conservative late, and probably the quarterback less likely to misfire in the final period. You are what your history says, and we've all seen Peyton Manning lose a few too many of these tight playoff games. For me the X factor in this game is Julius Thomas, who got free to make the key reception in the final series against San Diego. I think New England will do a nice job on Denver's wide receivers, but I don't think they can handle Thomas, who of course missed the earlier game. If Denver wins, Julius should be the reason why. But I think it's going to be New England 27, Denver 23. I kind of hope I'm wrong.
49ers at Seahawks: The two popular notions with this game are (1) Seattle is home and can't possibly lose with their 12th man and Legion of Boom defense and whatnot, and (2) San Francisco is the better team and it's on a roll and is all set to finish the job it started a year ago. I want to mention up front, for those who don't know, that unlike Ian I do not live in Seattle and have no pro or negative Seahawk bias of any kind. I have Colin Kaepernick on my dynasty team, but otherwise don't really care who wins this game.
Looking at those season-long numbers, the offenses are very similar; Seattle 17th in yards and 9th in points, San Francisco 24th in yards and 11th in points. Seattle is slightly better, but they've been playing worse as the season has gone on, with 3 TDs per game in their first 11, just 2 per game in their last five. Although Colin Kaepernick played better in the second half of the season, that offense was similar to Seattle: 3 TDs per game in its first eight, 2 in its last eight. So, this isn't going to be a shootout.
Which defense is better? Well, it's close. Seattle is No. 1 in both yards and points allowed, while San Francisco isn't far behind (3rd and 5th). The over-under of just 39 (16-17 points less than in the AFC game) tells you about what to expect.
The tricky thing with this particular game is that both quarterbacks have similar track records -- clutch, but given that they're both second-year starters, fairly brief. Colin Kaepernick is 4-1 in the postseason, which is impressive, but Russell Wilson is 2-1, and was impressive in the win over Washington and narrow loss to Atlanta last year. Both can make plays with their legs, and this will be a game they have to do that, and will. I won't be surprised if both guys run for 60-70 yards tomorrow.
Seattle has the better ground game; I like Marshawn Lynch a lot better than Frank Gore at this point (though they're both great running backs). San Francisco has the much better receiving corps; if I were drafting all these receivers from scratch, the top 3 would all be 49ers, and it's a steep drop down to Tate, Kearse and Baldwin. Seriously, is that really going to be the Super Bowl receiving corps? No wonder they gambled by trading for Percy Harvin; too bad he won't play.
Seattle's defense, at home, has the edge. What they did to New Orleans -- twice! -- is very impressive. What they've done to San Francisco at home, also twice the last two seasons, is too. It's going to be tough for the 49ers to get much going, even with the superior receivers.
I think ultimately this will end up being a better game than the AFC one; like, I think with that one you might have New England go up 10 points, Denver come back, but not get it done. This one has a real who gets the ball last feel, with the quarterback picking up 3rd and 4th downs with his legs to get into position for that final, game-deciding field goal. I go back and forth on this one, but I'm going to pick against the 49ers for the second straight week anyway. Seattle 19, San Francisco 17.
Enjoy the games.
