Ian Allan fields your fantasy football questions. In this edition. How early should one take a quarterback if TDs are worth 6 points? Which rookie quarterback will put up the best numbers numbers? And weighing Eddie Lacy versus Megatron in a keeper league.
Question 1
I know you have answered this in the past but, in a 10-team league where the QB gets 6 pts per TD, how much more valuable does that make the QB? Does that make the top 3 or 4 QBs your top picks overall on a cheat sheet?
Treavor Phipps (Salem, IN)
You increase the value of touchdown passes, and it makes the quarterbacks more valuable. In this case, I’ve got those elite three quarterbacks as the Nos. 10, 11 and 13 players on the board – Manning, Brees and Rodgers. If you increase TD passes from 4 points to 6 points, it causes them to climb to Nos. 1, 2 and 7. As for the others in the top 40, Stafford rises from 26 to 20, Brady from 31 to 21, Foles from 33 to 26, Luck from 34 to 28 and Ryan from 46 to 35. That’s the kind of shift you’re looking at.
Question 2
If you had to bet your kid's college tuition on it, which rookie QB will have the best three-year stretch (2014-2016)?
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
Not a huge difference between the three, I think, but I will go with Blake Bortles. He’s the guy who interested NFL teams the most. The Jaguars selected him 3rd overall, and I believe multiple other teams wouldn’t have let him get out of the top 10. With Manziel and Bridgewater, there are obviously doubts about those guys because they slipped all the way out of the top 20. If some other team was confident that either of those quarterbacks was the answer at quarterback, they would have been selected a lot earlier. Bridgewater might not have enough arm strength; he really struggled at his pro day. While Manziel looks a lot like Ryan Leaf – a talented guy who might be more interested in partying like a rock star than developing into a top quarterback. Ultimately, I think you defer to the NFL scouts. In the last 20 years, 14 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round but outside the top-15. Only two of those guys have gone on to have good careers (Flacco and Rodgers). Of the other 12, only Chad Pennington has had more than a smattering of success. Boller, Grossman, Losman, Quinn, Tebow – that’s the group that Manziel and Bridgewater have to try to work their way out of.
| QBs TAKEN OUTSIDE THE TOP 15 (IN FIRST ROUND) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Pick | Player |
| 2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel |
| 2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman |
| 2000 | 18 | Chad Pennington |
| 2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco |
| 2003 | 19 | Kyle Boller |
| 2003 | 22 | Rex Grossman |
| 2004 | 22 | J.P. Losman |
| 2007 | 22 | Brady Quinn |
| 2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden |
| 2014 | 22 | • Johnny Manziel |
| 2005 | 24 | Aaron Rodgers |
| 2005 | 25 | Jason Campbell |
| 2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow |
| 1997 | 26 | Jim Druckenmiller |
| 2002 | 32 | Patrick Ramsey |
| 2014 | 32 | • Teddy Bridgewater |
In the same time period, 26 quarterbacks have been selected with top-5 picks, and half of those guys went on to be stars, and a couple of others at least had some pro success (Kerry Collins, Alex Smith). So I will go with Bortles, even though the Jaguars are indicating their plan is to leave him on the bench for all of this season.
| QUARTERBACKS SELECTED IN TOP 5 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Pick | Player |
| 1993 | 1 | Drew Bledsoe |
| 1998 | 1 | Peyton Manning |
| 1999 | 1 | Tim Couch |
| 2001 | 1 | Michael Vick |
| 2002 | 1 | David Carr |
| 2003 | 1 | Carson Palmer |
| 2004 | 1 | Eli Manning |
| 2005 | 1 | Alex Smith (some success) |
| 2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford (maybe) |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck |
| 1993 | 2 | Rick Mirer |
| 1998 | 2 | Ryan Leaf |
| 1999 | 2 | Donovan McNabb |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III |
| 1994 | 3 | Heath Shuler |
| 1995 | 3 | Steve McNair |
| 1999 | 3 | Akili Smith |
| 2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington |
| 2006 | 3 | Vince Young |
| 2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan |
| 2014 | 3 | • Blake Bortles |
| 2004 | 4 | Philip Rivers |
| 1995 | 5 | Kerry Collins (some success) |
| 2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez |
Question 3
I usually play in a couple of different web based Fantasy Contests every year and I am looking to try out some new ones. Which contests would you recommend the most? I see that RTS has a new Fantasy Championship going this year run by Geoff Stein. They seem like a reliable service. Which contests do you participate in Ian?
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
Real Time Fantasy Sports is definitely a legit company. They’ve been around for years. You need not have any worries about them flaking out or their website breaking down or anything. Ditto for CDM Sports. Like us, they’re one of the few remaining fantasy companies that pre-dates the internet. Unfortunately, I can’t play in any of these national contests because I’m in one of the five states where such games are prohibited.
Question 4
Keeper League question. I have Calvin Johnson but keeping him costs me my first round pick. I can keep Eddie Lacy with a 4th round pick as an alternative. I think Johnson is still the right choice(PPR League). Am I wrong? I also can keep Alfred Morris for a 9th round pick or Emmanuel Sanders for a 14th round pick. My thought is Johnson and Morris. Right combo?
Shaun Sterner (Niagara Falls, NY)
I think you need to look at relative values. Johnson is your best player, but protecting him with a first-round pick won’t add any value to your franchise. You might be able to select him in the first round anyway, meaning it will be as if you didn’t get to protect anybody. Better to use those two keepers on Lacy and Morris. Lacy would probably be selected in the mid-first to early second round in that league, while Morris probably would be selected in about the fourth. Adding those guys with your fourth- and ninth-round picks would give you a nice headstart on the bulk of the league.
Question 5
My choices for a third Keeper are: WR/TE Jimmy Graham as a 4th rounder, WR/TE Alshon Jeffery as a 10th Rounder, or WR/TE Percy Harvin as a 13th Round Keeper. Thanks, Ian, for your consideration and response. Also, love the podcasts … great to hear your voice.
Steven Schipper (Winnipeg, MB)
I think it’s Jeffery, and I don’t think it’s even close. He’s probably the best of those guys, and he’s coming at a much lower cost than Jimmy Graham. Percy Harvin is on a plateau far below those guys; he’s not even in the mix.
Question 6
Keeper league question. I can keep either Matt Forte or Eddie Lacy. I know it sounds like a no brainer to keep the younger Lacy over Forte, but here's the rub. We keep two a year and do not lose ANY draft picks. Meaning I would still have a chance to draft Lacy in the first round if I pass on him as my keeper. Drew Brees is already locked in as my second. Standard yardage league.
JOHN RUPPE (Fort Myers, FL)
Why is Brees penciled in as a keeper? I would guess that both Forte and Lacy would be selected before him, so why aren’t those the two keepers? Those are the two I would keep. Easier to find quarterbacks than tailbacks. As for weighing Forte and Lacy, I don’t see a big difference between the two. If it’s a league for just 2014, I would go with just Forte. But when you start considering 2015 and beyond and look at the ages of the guys, I think the smarter choice would be to protect Lacy.
Question 7
One time I heard of a different way to play fantasy football. Instead of just playing one team each week, you played ever team each week. So, for instance , if you had 10 teams, and you had the high score for the week, you went 9-0 that week. You would get multiple wins (or losses) each week, and would make the playoffs by who had the most wins, which would obviously be a higher number than the regular way. Then, in the playoffs, you would just play against one team. Do you know of any leagues that do it this way? Does any computer program/sports site offer this kind of setup?
GEOFF GREGGS (Roy, WA)
We’ve been running experts leagues for over 10 years (the Mock Draft and the Mock Auction) and they both use that kind of format. We wanted to reduce the luck of scheduling. It’s there as an option to choose if you use Real Time Fantasy Sports. I know that MyFantasyLeague also has it. I’ll bet that many others also have it as an option that can be selected.
