DENVER (at New England): When Denver lost at Foxboro last year, Peyton Manning had his worst game of the season, completing 19 of 36 for 150 yards, with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. But in our eyes, that game means pretty much nothing. On that Sunday night, recall, it was unusually tough weather -- 22 degrees, with 22 mph winds. And the Broncos, remarkably, still put up 31 points (in a 34-31 overtime loss). Mother Nature isn’t coming to save the Patriots this time, so it will be a surprise if Manning doesn’t put up 300-plus yards and 3-plus touchdowns. Give Bill Belichick credit; he’s 10-5 against Manning. But with the way today’s game is structured, it’s tough for even Belichick to slow down this kind of quarterback. When these teams met in the AFC Championship game, recall, Manning passed for 400 yards and 2 TDs in a 26-16 win (with the Patriots scoring a late touchdown to make it look more respectable). For fantasy purposes, the idea of sitting down Manning because he’s playing against a Belichick defense hasn’t paid dividends recently.

Recapping: Other than the weather affected game, Manning has thrown for over 325 yards in four straight games against Belichick, with 13 TDs in those four games. This time around, Manning is playing as well as ever (maybe better), while the Patriots are juggling pieces

This report is taken from today's Week 9 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.

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and trying to figure out how to stop people. Other than Geno Smith, the last four quarterbacks to play against New England have all thrown at least 2 TDs. The Patriots perhaps will figure out a way to win this game; they’ve been playing well. But Manning should put up his usual kind of numbers. It doesn’t make any sense to try to get cute, leaving him out of a fantasy lineup. ... Ronnie Hillman looks very intriguing. He’s on top of his game right now, running with speed that backfield hasn’t seen since Clinton Portis was a Bronco. And there’s the possibility Belichick will use a lot more dime formations than others attempt against Manning. In the Sunday night game here a year ago, recall, Knowshon Moreno ran for 224 yards and a touchdown. In the AFC Championship, Moreno and Montee Ball combined for 102 yards. The Patriots have been painfully soft against the run at times this year, particularly after losing Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo. In half of their games, New England has allowed over 150 rushing yards. Hillman is averaging 94 rushing yards per game as a starter, and two of his three starts have been against top-4 run defenses. He’s also averaging 25 yards per game as a pass catcher. The only knock against his game is his scoring potential. He’s scored 2 TDs in three weeks, but Juwan Thompson very impressively punched out short yardage on three occasions against the Chargers, including 2 TDs. If the ball winds up on the 1-yard line, it’s more likely that Thompson will knock it in, rather than Hillman. But Hillman looks like a top-5 kind of back right now -- one of the few players this week with the potential to maybe put up 140 total yards. ... Darrelle Revis is an intriguing chess piece. He’s one of the top half dozen shutdown corners in the league right now, and he seems to be on top of his game.

The Patriots surely will put Revis on Demaryius Thomas. On the one hand, that’s a big negative. When Revis is truly on his game, some teams will choose to just stay away from that part of the field. On the other hand, Thomas doesn’t see single coverage often, and that’s something that might be appealing to Peyton Manning. When the Cardinals tried a lot of man coverage at Denver, Thomas had his best game of the season. But the guess here is that New England will be more clever with how it uses Revis. The Patriots had a Revis-type corner last year (Aqib Talib), and he did a very good job. Thomas caught only 4 passes for 41 yards in the first game (with an 11-yard touchdown). In the second game, Thomas caught his first pass in the second quarter, and that was the play where Talib got hurt on the controversial pick block thrown by Wes Welker. With Talib out, Thomas went on to have a huge game, finishing with 7 catches for 134 yards. We’re putting Thomas lower than usual. ... If Thomas plays less of a role, that should work in favor of the other pass catchers. Emmanuel Sanders for sure. He’s caught 47 passes so far -- just like Thomas. Julius Thomas is another possibility. When he came out of the gates with guns blazing, it looked like he might be another Jimmy Graham, but he’s cooled. Julius Thomas has finished under 40 yards in four of his last six games, and two weeks in a row he hasn’t scored. But he’s a guy they like in the red zone. The Patriots have allowed touchdown passes to tight ends two weeks in a row. ... It’s tough to have any confidence in Wes Welker. Manning is putting up the pinball numbers, yet Welker hasn’t gone over 60 yards in any of his five games. Welker has been held to 1 catch for under 10 yards in two of his last three games. Since he returned, Manning has thrown 16 TDs, and Welker has caught only 1 of them. He wasn’t a big factor in either of the New England games last year, catching 4 for 31 and 4 for 38, with no touchdowns. ... Brandon McManus has been a bottom-10 kicker thus far, with only 46 points in seven games. He’s attempted only 11 field goals, and he’s missed three of them. But McManus could be busier this week. The Patriots are more likely than other teams to get some stops inside the red zone. When the Broncos beat New England in the AFC Championship last year, Matt Prater kicked 4 field goals. ... The Broncos Defense is outstanding. Right now it’s clipping along just short of 3 sacks and 1 interception per week. But we’re slotting it much lower than usual. Since the disaster game at Arrowhead a month ago, Tom Brady has been sacked only 4 times in four games, with no interceptions. And while Denver’s defense is very solid, it’s recovered only 1 fumble this year, tying for last in the league.