BALTIMORE (vs Jacksonville):
This is a near-ideal matchup for the Ravens. Jacksonville’s defense was playing better football for a stretch in the middle of the season, but that appears to be over. Since holding three straight opponents to 17 or fewer points in Weeks 5- 7, the Jaguars have given up at least 27 in each of their last six games. They’ve been getting clobbered on the ground, which is what the Ravens do best anyway. Looks like another week, then, when Justin Forsett should lead the way. He’s playing great, and has been very steady, averaging 101 yards per game: 83
This report is taken from today's Week 15 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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rushing, 18 receiving. He’s put up fewer than 85 total yards just once in the last ten games, and scored 5 times in the last four. He’s even remaining in the game for some goal-line situations, scoring from 2 yards out against Miami (Joe Flacco has also snuck in a couple of touchdowns with Forsett in the backfield the last two weeks). Bernard Pierce and Lorenzo Taliaferro have been getting some change-of-pace work, and Taliaferro had an unsuccessful goal-line chance against Miami, but neither of those backs has scored in the last five games. Taliaferro, day-to-day with knee and ankle sprains suffered against Miami, will probably miss this game, making Pierce at least the clear No. 2. Pierce rushed for 50 yards last week, but all of that came with Baltimore running out the clock in the last five minutes, so he remains an afterthought in the offense (although there might be a similar opportunity for late-game production here). Jacksonville has allowed at least 116 rushing yards in six straight games; 148-plus in five of those, and an average of 159 in those contests. After a six-game stretch where they allowed just 1 rushing score, the Jaguars have allowed 9 TDs on the ground in their last five games. Look for strong numbers from Forsett, and maybe serviceable numbers from the designated “big” back in the second half. ... When the running game is working -- and it should be here -- Joe Flacco tends to not do very much. Baltimore has rushed for at least 150 yards six times this season. Here are Flacco’s numbers in those games.
| Flacco when team runs for 150 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Opp | Pass | TDs |
| Pitt. | 166 | 2 |
| Cle. | 217 | 1 |
| T.B. | 306 | 5 |
| Tenn. | 169 | 1 |
| N.O. | 243 | 1 |
| Mia. | 269 | 3 |
In those six contests, Flacco averaged 228 passing yards and 2 TDs, while throwing only 1 TD in half of those games. He had the big game at Tampa Bay and finished with solid numbers at Miami, but those appear less likely. Jacksonville has also defended the pass fairly well of late. They’re 23rd, but in the first five games, they allowed 12 TDs and an average of 330 passing yards per game. In their last eight, the Jaguars have allowed only 8 passing scores, and an average of just 221 yards per game. No one has thrown for even 260 yards against Jacksonville in that timeframe, a stretch that’s included some quality passers (Romo, Luck and Eli Manning). Romo and Andy Dalton are the only quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdowns against this defense since early in the season. Jacksonville also has a top-3 pass rush, another reason Baltimore might favor the run. ... Torrey Smith was active against Miami, but after experiencing swelling in his knee during pregame warm-ups was only used as a decoy. He probably will miss this game, which would benefit the other pass catchers. Last week his injury paved the way for Steve Smith Sr. to have a big game (7 catches and a touchdown on 11 targets). In the previous six games, Smith the Younger had a 5-1 scoring edge and 64-41 per game yardage edge over Smith the Older, so his absence, if it plays out that way, should again be good news for the other one. Smith’s absence last week resulted in Kamar Aiken putting up strong numbers, catching 6 of the 7 passes thrown his way for 65 yards and a touchdown. With Young Smith likely sitting out, Aiken should be on the radar of those desperate for a body to plug in at wide receiver. Marlon Brown would be the No. 3. All but one of the 8 passing TDs this defense has allowed in the last six games have gone to wide receivers. ... Jacksonville has allowed 6 TDs to tight ends, but only 1 in the last eight contests. Owen Daniels, meanwhile, hasn’t been over 30 yards or scored in any of this last four. ... Justin Tucker has put up 112 kicking points (6th), while the Jaguars have allowed 120 (3rd-worst). It’s the best matchup on the board this week. ... It’s an excellent week to use the Ravens Defense. Baltimore has 37 sacks (6th), while no team has allowed more than Jacksonville (54); it’s the best matchup for sacks on the board this week. Baltimore has only 8 interceptions, but with Jacksonville throwing a league-worst 17, it will be a surprise if they don’t get 1 and maybe 2 here. The Ravens have just 1 defensive touchdown, but Jacksonville has allowed 5, so that looks fairly promising, as well. Even with Haloti Ngata out, this still should be a top defense this week.
