Every Saturday morning, I'll take a quick look at all the week's games, offering my own take on what I think will happen, as well as touching on significant injury news since our Weekly came out. I'll check in every so often over the course of the day to answer questions, too.
Lots of playoff semifinals going on this week. I'm in a couple of them, and I get it. Choices are tougher than ever before, because there is no tomorrow. My basic feeling on these is to make sure you go with the choice that feels right; that you can live with if it goes wrong. I don't want to be sitting here on Tuesday saying, Why did I do that? Every fiber of my being felt differently. My trusted rankings argued against it. But I did it anyway.
Michael Murillo, earlier this week, wrote about the notion of Dancing with those who brought you. I agree with him that that's a flawed strategy. However, track records are important me. If a guy has stepped up for me all year long, and I'm debating between him and somebody else, I am going to use the guy who hasn't let me down in the past, and live with the consequences. And feel better about it if I lose.
Lots of games and lots of lineup decisions to make, so let's go.
Steelers at Falcons: Sounds like Julio Jones will miss this game, making Harry Douglas a viable option. Neither defense particularly good. I see no reason not to use anyone of note in this game. I'm going with Heath Miller, knowing that he's busted when I've used him all season, and blown up when I didn't. But it's him or Kyle Rudolph for me, and Miller's got that soft defense to face. No reason for this game not to be a high-scoring shootout.
Jaguars at Ravens: Sounds like Torrey Smith will play. I think Baltimore will do a lot more on the ground against this defense, so Forsett is obvious and I think you can even think about Bernard Pierce, even though he isn't any good. Baltimore should run for 150 and 1-2 TDs in this game. Jacksonville could have some success via the pass (they're not going to do anything on the ground) but I can't advise using any of their players.
Packers at Bills: I've got both Lacy and Starks, who it seems will share work against a tough run defense. I'm going with Lacy, but I'll be watching those Sunday morning reports. Still, Green Bay would have listed him as questionable rather than probable if they had any doubts about him. If you need a running back for a lineup spot, I think Starks might fit the bill. Am thinking 60-40 for Lacy. You can't stack the line against the Packers. For Buffalo I'd be all over Watkins and think Fred Jackson could be OK.
Bucs at Panthers: No Cam Newton and no DeAngelo Williams. I'm still using Kelvin Benjamin in a flex spot, he should be fine with Derek Anderson. Tampa Bay ground game can/should be ignored, though I guess Martin is a desperation choice. VJax and Evans, sure. Jonathan Stewart in a leading role, yes.
Bengals at Browns: Like most, I'll tune this one in to see Johnny Football. He'll probably run plenty and call his own number near the goal line. I'd be surprised if he has a good day passing the ball, but I think I'm a little higher on Josh Gordon than Ian is. He's Josh Gordon, Cincinnati's defense has some holes, I'm sure Manziel will throw him a few jumpballs. If he's tall enough to get the ball up high in the air, that is. Marvin Lewis tells me that Manziel is on the short side. Jeremy Hill and A.J. Green are the Bengals to use in this game. Jermaine Gresham probably won't play.
Texans at Colts: Use the usual guys, Foster and Luck and Hopkins and Hilton. Hopkins gets a boost since it seems very unlikely that Andre Johnson gets full clearance from his concussion. Though you've got to check tomorrow to be certain. Dan Herron should be OK but Houston is better against the run.
Raiders at Kansas City: Latavius Murray and Jamaal Charles, Mychal Rivera and Travis Kelce. I think that's about the extent of usable players here. Not the quarterbacks, not the wide receivers. Kansas City defense should be OK but not as great as you'd like, unless the Raiders turn in another game like they did against St. Louis (and I don't think they will).
Dolphins at Patriots: New England should run a lot, Miami should pass a lot. None of the "questionable" Patriots concern me, but Blount is the guy I'd most like to use in this game. There aren't any Dolphins I'd really be excited about putting into a lineup.
Washington at Giants: I'm thinking it will be about 60-40 or 70-30 Jennings versus Williams in this game. Jennings will be in for third downs, Williams might get goal-line work. Washington is much softer against the pass, I considered picking up Eli to use for this game. Beckham Jr. and Donnell, yes. DeSean Jackson iffy and I wouldn't want to use him.
Broncos at Chargers: Tough to sit down Philip Rivers, but I'm doing so for Russell Wilson. They both have tough opposing matchups. Rivers was fine in the earlier Broncos game, and he's home now, but I trust Wilson a little bit more. I do like Antonio Gates and Keenan Allen here. Sounds like no Ryan Mathews, so Branden Oliver and Donald Brown should share work (and be avoided). Denver's offense, use the regular starters, not too tricky. Both Thomases fine.
Jets at Titans: One of those games which will be watched only by diehard fans and immediate family members of players. Chris Johnson should be running hard against his old team. Don't know or care if Percy Harvin will be out there. Both defenses get nice matchups, but I still see them as middle of the pack type options. Nate Washington is usable, especially if Kendall Wright inactive, but really, most have a better option. Delanie Walker should be great.
Vikings at Lions: This was originally a 1 p.m. game, I'm curious as to why it's been flexed into a later time slot. Santa appearing at the stadium earlier in the day, perhaps? Charles Johnson is the only Viking I'd even think about using here. Stafford, Bell, Calvin and Tate and the Lions Defense should all be good.
49ers at Seahawks: I am wary of underestimating San Francisco, but it kind of seems like things are over for Jim Harbaugh and company. I certainly wouldn't be using any of their players after that Thanksgiving game. For Seattle I'm using Wilson and Lynch and hoping I'm right about Seattle caring and the Niners not having the proper focus/attitude going into this one.
Cowboys at Eagles: We all watched this matchup on Thanksgiving, so it's understandable to be wary of the Dallas offense. But I think if you've got Romo, Bryant and obviously Murray, you're going with them and hoping they shake that previous bad outing. Philadelphia's offense should be just fine against Dallas and yes I'd go ahead and use even Mark Sanchez this week.
Saints at Bears: I can't figure the Saints at all this year, and poor games from Mark Ingram have factored heavily into my strong teams that got bounced in elimination games in two of my leagues the last three weeks. But I am going to go with him again anyway, and all regular Saints players, against a Bears defense that's terrible. I haven't examined this story about the Bears coach ripping Jay Cutler too carefully. Cutler, Jeffery, Forte and Bennett, to me, are good starts against an equally terrible Saints defense. And since I've got Ingram and am facing Bennett, I am sure Monday night will be a late one around here.
Questions? Ask away. Please consult the Index rankings, which I will seldom dispute, but I will try to offer clarity or "What I would do" on the really close ones. Good luck this weekend, and enjoy the games.
--Andy Richardson
