Just three football games left on the season. There are different ways of doing playoff fantasy leagues, and I'm in one where I'm alive to win the thing. I wish I could ascribe to genius, but mostly it's a case where the teams I thought would advance to the Super Bowl, the top-seeded Seahawks and Patriots, are still playing. If they both lose this week, I'm toast; if at least one wins, I have a reasonable chance.
So I'll take a look at both games, while also comparing and ranking the players at each position. People in leagues like mine, where you pick your entire roster before the playoffs start, probably don't have many -- if any -- choices. At this point you're starting the players you have left and hoping you can field a full lineup. But I do have one key choice, at quarterback, and picking wrong could mean the difference between winning and losing. So here we go.
Green Bay at Seattle: Every year they flip whether the NFC or AFC Championship is the later game. That's how we ended up with this deal where the West Coast game starts at noon out there and the East Coast game starts at 6:40 p.m., so a couple hours after sunset. I'm on the East Coast, plus I'm not playing in the game, so I really couldn't care less, but I have to think this is a negative for the Seahawks -- they roll out of bed and have to be on the field for warmups around the time I'd be drinking my coffee and begging my dog to go to the bathroom. Where was I? Right, the game. If you're rooting for the Packers, I think this earlier start time benefits them somewhat.
The matchup, of course, is pretty bad for Green Bay's offense. Very tough to throw against Seattle's stellar secondary, and very tough to run on their front seven. Based on the earlier meeting, when the Packers stuck then No. 3 Jarrett Boykin on the side of the field that Richard Sherman occupies, Davante Adams won't do anything, and it looks better for Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. But I don't think Seattle will just waste Sherman like that for the entire game, and the rest of Seattle's defensive backs are good, too. I tend to think Cobb will be the best receiver here, with Nelson the receiver who sees the most extra coverage and safety help.
Eddie Lacy is involved as a receiver, so he could be OK even if he doesn't put up big rushing numbers. The overall expectations for Green Bay's offense need to be held in check, which is why you're much better using players from the Patriots-Colts game, if you have them. Arguably Aaron Rodgers is the best of the four quarterbacks playing this week, but he's definitely got the toughest matchup, and a bum wheel, so he's not the guy I'd want to start. He's 4th at QB, Lacy I'd only start over Dan Herron, and Cobb and Nelson slot in after Hilton, well ahead of the Seattle wide receivers, and around the same area as Edelman and LaFell. I'd use them first only because they're better and more go-to guys.
For Seattle, I like Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. They don't have to prove much at this point to me. Green Bay shouldn't have a ton of success stopping Lynch, and Wilson will make an impact with his legs. I've got him 3rd at QB, Lynch 1st at running back. And oh yeah, the game itself. I think Seattle wins 27-17 and goes back to the Super Bowl.
Indianapolis at New England: I'll repeat that I did think Indy would win in Denver, just so you know that when I say I don't think they'll win here you know I'm not predisposed to doubt underdogs/upstarts. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Andrew Luck and his game. He turns it over some, but very few of them are meaningful; often his interceptions are forces that end up being equivalent to punts. He's the best young quarterback in the league, the passer I'll draft first next year without question (yes, well ahead of Aaron Rodgers), and in my eyes the top quarterback this weekend, as well, in fantasy terms. He gives the Colts a puncher's chance to win this game.
But the Patriots have a lot of punch of their own. The only reason I selected LeGarrette Blount to my playoff roster was this matchup, which I thought would occur in the divisional round; he will have some success on the ground (and to me is the No. 2 running back this week). Yeah New England has Vereen and Bolden and Gray if he's active, but Blount is the only guy I'd use.
The Colts, remembering the way they were dominated on the ground in the regular-season meeting, might load up to stop that. For a while, that might work, but then Tom Brady and Gronkowski and Edelman-LaFell-Amendola should have some success. And then it will be Blount when the Patriots get up by 7-10 points. It just doesn't look good for Indy going up to New England to stop that offense. What they did to Peyton Manning wasn't as impressive in my eyes, because Manning had been slipping anyway.
Indy's offense? Well, there's Luck, he'll be productive, putting up 2-3 TDs. Hilton will see a lot of Darrelle Revis, which is a negative, but I can't write him off. I just don't think his production will matter as much to the outcome. Luck will use his other targets, including both tight ends, so those guys slot in after Gronkowski this weekend, with Luke Willson 4th and Green Bay's combined production of Quarless and Rodgers being tempting, but split, so you're just hoping your guy catches the touchdown if you start one of them.
Dan Herron will be busy as a runner and receiver, an every-down guy. Trent Richardson says he'll never again be a healthy scratch, which is a bizarre proclamation over something he has no control over. Why won't he be a healthy scratch this week? Whatever, I don't want to pile on. Herron should be productive, but he's not going to run much against the Patriots.
I think New England wins this game something like 34-24, meaning both offenses will be good. But we'll get that Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl which has seemed inevitable for about six weeks now.
Enjoy the games.
