It's the NFL's best weekend of the year, and the matchups live up to it. Packers-Cowboys! Colts-Broncos! And two other games featuring the top seeds and clear Super Bowl favorites. I plan to watch every minute of all four games, albeit while hosting a child's sleepover birthday party. So I may be a bit bleary-eyed by Sunday. But it won't slow me down.
Ravens at Patriots: I made the mistake of underestimating the Ravens last week, thinking they'd lose to Pittsburgh. The Patriots, though, have made the mistake of underestimating the Ravens in past playoff matchups, so surely they won't do it again. But Baltimore has a sound, veteran defense that simply doesn't give up many touchdowns and forces offenses to work for everything they get. And the Patriots, though they're a smart offensive team, don't have the kind of dynamic offensive playmaker that ensures they'll score big.
I don't think New England will run, so they'll have to pass. Unfortunately, I don't think they'll have a go-to guy; this strikes me as a game where every possible pass catcher catches a couple or three passes, guys like Amendola, Wright, Vereen, and of course the main starters. I like Rob Gronkowski because he's healthy and tough to cover. Edelman and LaFell I'm less sure of, though they're clearly 2-3. For Baltimore, you have to worry about Revis and Browner on the Smiths, but I don't automatically bench them. I just wouldn't want to use them. Or their running backs. Weather shouldn't be a huge factor. I'm thinking New England 20, Baltimore 17, without much in the way of great fantasy choices. And I'm benching Brady for Romo, myself. Today.
Panthers at Seahawks: There's really no way to get past the fact that these teams have played three games the last three years with neither one reaching 17 points. Carolina's defense isn't as good as it was and the game is in Seattle, but you still can't get too excited about the Seahawks. Panthers tackle Star Loutoulei is out, that helps Marshawn Lynch. And Russell Wilson will run some and should be good for 1-2 TDs. But if I have anyone playing in this game besides the Seahawks D and kicker, I'm sitting them.
Most likely, it's a close, low-scoring game, until the final period when Seattle gets a score and then their defense makes a play or two when Carolina has to force some things. I'll go with Seattle 23, Carolina 13.
Cowboys at Packers: I was a huge Packers fan throughout the Favre years, so I remember every Packers-Cowboys game throughout that time vividly. All the playoff encounters were in Dallas, all were won by the Cowboys. Man, did I hate them. I have seen a lot of people picking the Cowboys to get the upset, and they certainly have the offense to score some and control the clock. But unless Aaron Rodgers is really gimping around out there on one leg, I can't see them slowing the Packers down. They can run with Lacy, they can pass to Nelson and Cobb, and Rodgers -- if he can move -- can pick up a 3rd and 8 with his legs if need be. Maybe not as often with the calf injury, but it's still in play.
For Dallas, I like Murray and love Bryant and Witten (and I guess Romo, by extension). I think Green Bay will try to stop Murray and have a harder time handling the passing game. It's going to be cold which will hurt the offenses, but they're not going to be just running all the time, either. I think it's Green Bay 27, Dallas 24, but it strikes me as a possible classic that could go either way.
Colts at Broncos: One road team always wins these games, right? It's going to be an awful feeling in the Manning households when Andrew Luck, who replaced him in Indianapolis (for those who forgot), brings his old team into Denver to erase his last, best chance of winning another Super Bowl. But that's what I think is going to happen. Luck is just too good, too capable (arms and legs) to be stopped. They can fall behind, he'll bring them back. He can make plays deep, he can convert third downs with his legs. He has enough receivers to get this thing done.
C.J. Anderson should be huge in this game. Colts can't stop the run. But if Denver does lean on the run, which they may have to (Manning simply not playing at his earlier level, either due to age, injury, temperatures, whatever), they won't score enough to put the game out of Luck's reach. I think the Colts go into Denver and win this thing 30-27. If I'm wrong, so be it, but I'm buying into the Luck is the Now and Manning is the Yesterday storyline.
Enjoy the games.
