The NFL playoffs have arrived, two games today and two games tomorrow. I think it's nice of the league to always schedule the least compelling game first, so the matchups seem to get better as the weekend moves along. Usually it's the Bengals-Texans in that early slot, but this year we've got a sub-.500 division winner against Ryan Lindley, so Saturday afternoon when people are out catching Into the Woods or Unbroken sounds like a nice time to squeeze that one in.
Fantasy playoff leagues don't care, though, and just because the game is kind of a dog doesn't mean there aren't some viable fantasy options. Right? Well, we'll see. I'm playing in a couple of playoff leagues myself, including one where you have to pick your entire roster before the playoffs begin. I'm not expecting many of the eight teams playing here to have a great shot of winning more than one game, so it's a pretty thin Week 18 lineup. Let's get to it.
Cardinals at Panthers: We must be careful not to underestimate the chances of a hot defense going far in the playoffs. We've seen the Ravens, Titans, Steelers, Giants and Patriots all do it in the last 10-15 years. Two very good defenses here (although Arizona was better early and Carolina better late), and one will go on the road next week to face a maybe up and down offense in Seattle, or a team that hasn't always lived up to playoff expectations in Green Bay. Anyway, as for this game. Arizona's offense did put up some production in San Francisco last week, and Carolina's defense has some holes, so maybe Michael Floyd catches a long TD or Kerwynn Williams breaks a long run; it's possible. Realistically, though, you don't want to be counting on anything out of the Cardinals; Lindley's not going to go all Joe Montana out there. If Arizona scores 17 points on offense it's a surprise.
For Carolina, I don't really care that DeAngelo Williams is back, because the Panthers cannot be stupid enough to take the ball out of Jonathan Stewart's hands. It's gonna be Stewart running and Cam Newton running and throwing it short to Greg Olsen and I suppose Kelvin Benjamin. But I think the best two fantasy options might be Stewart and Carolina's defense; Panthers should go conservative, force some turnovers, and come away with something like a 20-13 win.
Ravens at Steelers: I know what the Ravens have done in the playoffs in the past, but this particular team just doesn't seem very good. In the last two weeks they got smoked in Houston and were far from impressive in slipping by Cleveland. They were less bad down the stretch than the AFC teams they snuck by for the final spot; I think Houston would have been a more compelling playoff participant. Justin Forsett and the two Smiths are the players I like here; you can pass on the Steelers secondary, and Forsett should get almost all the carries, given that Bernard Pierce is terrible. But I don't think Baltimore is likely to win this game.
That said, Pittsburgh doesn't have its best player during the season in LeVeon Bell. And it's apparently going to be raining like a madman, and weather is the great equalizer; players slip and fall down, there's unlikely turnovers, etc. If Baltimore can put some bodies on Antonio Brown and slow him, suddenly Pittsburgh is relying on Josh Harris to carry the offense. Watching Harris in highlights, he looks like he might be OK. I don't think the worst thing in a salary cap type league is to gamble on him in one spot, and go strong everywhere else. Although I like Pittsburgh passing against this defense better than running. Brown is the only guy from the Saturday games I've got on my playoff roster; I could see him playing three games if Pittsburgh wins this one; they can win in Denver. I'm going to go Pittsburgh, 24-20; Steelers only lose this game if they turn it over a bunch.
Bengals at Colts: Interesting game here, I think. Bengals can win if they give the ball to Jeremy Hill and throw short passes to Giovani Bernard and that approach is effective. Keep Andrew Luck on the sidelines, work the run and the short throws (essentially long handoffs). Any other approach, given that it seems A.J. Green won't be available, and they can't win. I don't want to use Mohamed Sanu, Jermaine Gresham, or any of the Bengals' other receivers (Greg Little? really?). That's not how they're going to win this game.
The fact that I think Cincinnati could be successful doing this is why I have no Bengals or Colts on my playoff roster. I don't know who will win, and I don't think either team has a prayer of winning in Foxborough (or Denver) next week. Especially Foxborough. But for the Colts, I do like Luck, who will be the entire offense, and would consider T.Y. Hilton and Dwayne Allen, at least this week. Maybe Dan Herron, but probably not, and rosters aren't big enough for me to even think about Trent Richardson, who simply cannot play. I think the Colts win this game 24-17; only the ground game and the defense forcing turnovers would enable the Bengals to sneak out of here with a win. And, it's possible.
Lions at Cowboys: Not sure how I feel about the Cowboys as a heavy favorite. Ian and I have a slight disagreement here, in that we both think Dallas can win in Green Bay next week and make a deep playoff run, but he thinks the Cowboys will definitely win this game, and I'm not as sure. Detroit's defense is really good and I'm just concerned that they'll be tough enough to slow down the running game, hit a play or two to Calvin Johnson and get a lead, and then doubt creeps in for Dallas. I've got Romo, Murray and Bryant on my playoff roster, so obviously I believe they will win, but I'm not totally confident.
For Detroit, certainly Joique Bell, Johnson and Matthew Stafford are intriguing. Dallas has no pass rush and isn't anything special against the run or the pass, so if Stafford is on his game -- which he hasn't been for most of the season -- who knows. But really, it's Detroit's defense that's worrying here; maybe they contain Dallas and steal a 20-17 type of game. I'll go along with the point spreads though and say it's Dallas 27-20, but an upset would not stun me. Hope I'm wrong, because I want Green Bay to get a game next week, and doubt Detroit provides it.
Enjoy the games.
