So here we are at the last game of the season, in a matchup that isn't terribly surprising but does have probably an even number of "experts" and regular folks on either side of the game. I think I've already said who I think will win, but all that really matters is I think the game will be close, and thus could go either way. A late turnover, sack, recovered onside kick or helmet completion might well decide the game.
That's why I am picking Seattle, which for a few seasons now has seemed to have the players, personalities, toughness and I'll say it good karma to win these games. I believe in Wilson, Lynch, Sherman and Pete Carroll to make the plays and calls that will work out. It's been 10 years since I've seen the Patriots do it.
I am aware that safety Kam Chancellor apparently banged a knee at the end of practice yesterday, and that two other Seattle DBs are banged up. Working on the information I have, I am proceeding as If those guys are fine. If by tomorrow new information comes out, well, I might change my tune. But I think they are OK, and Seattle will be, too.
So what I will offer here is a preview, broken down by position, of the players I will and won't be using. Let's go.
Quarterback: As it happens, this is my only actual choice of the week. I am in 2nd place in a league where you pick your whole roster at the start of the playoffs. I have Brady and Wilson, and only one can start. Nobody else has Wilson. So I need to decide if Wilson will give me an edge, enabling me to slide into 1st or stay in 2nd, which also pays, or if I should go with Brady, ensuring no one beats me at the position. I have enough respect for the Seattle D that I believe Wilson, with his running, willbe a little better, and I am starting him, risking falling into 3rd...but maybe claiming 1st. If you can't take a risk in the season's final game, when can you?
Running Back: I am not a big LeGarrette Blount fan. I used to be, his rookie season. But now I see him as an ordinary runner doing nothing Brandon Bolden or Jonas Gray couldn't do. I think Seattle shuts him down, and Shane Vereen plays just as often if not more. I favor Marshawn Lynch, and think Vereen is a sneaky PPR play.
Wide Receiver: This is the big one for most people, with the most decisions to be made. Best bet, I think, is to rank them in order. What helps Seattle here is that they've got so few options. Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse, that is basically it. Baldwin shouldn't get free of Darrelle Revis very often, leaving Kearse to see more targets and chances to score. I will go with Edelman as New England's top wideout just because of the kind of routes he runs; tough to defend that shorter stuff, so he'll get a couple of throws right near the line of scrimmage. LaFell will have a hard time getting separation and getting downfield; more likely to have a big play, but will catch fewer passes. Reserve guys, well, Danny Amendola makes an intriguing spot start. I think New England will flood the field with receivers at times, spreading Seattle's banged-up secondary out. Seattle's other wideouts, such as they are, forget it. It will be reserve tight ends instead picking up slack.
Tight End: I don't think any defense can handle Rob Gronkowski, making him an easy choice as the top overall receiver. Definitely the most likely pass catcher on either team to score. Luke Willson is intriguing since he is talented, cheap, and won't face one of New England's top quality cornerbacks. He might lead Seattle in receiving -- seriously. And I think Tony Moeaki and Tim Wright, especially Wright, have some value, as cheap guys who could have larger than expected roles. Wright has been so quiet lately you get the sense that Belichick has been saving him for exactly this game. Of course, he might also not be used at all. But there's budget appeal there.
Kicker: Forgive me, but flip a coin. Both should be good. There might be more field goals than touchdowns in this game. I view Hauschka as slightly more clutch.
Defense: I think Seattle will win and is more likely to come up wth a touchdown. But Russell Wilson is a little more likely to take sacks and throw interceptions. So I view New England's defense as the "safer" play and Seattle as more of a shoot for the moon type of option. I will concede that strictly in terms of a punt return touchdown, New England is the better bet. So, Patriots.
I think it's going to be a great game, with great commercials, the lovely and talented Katy Perry riding a shark at halftime, and other fun stuff. And at long last, Pete Carroll's revenge on Bob Kraft for firing him. Enjoy the game.
