Ian Allan answers your fantasy questions. In this edition. Why Justin Forsett should be a PPR monster. Setting baselines in the custom rankings machine. And weighing Mike Evans against LeSean McCoy in a dynasty league.
Question 1
PPR league and 6 points for all touchdowns including passing. In this sort of league quarterbacks and receivers go early in our draft. You take one of each and you're behind the 8 ball at the running back position. There are 7 running backs that will be in that early mix. Seems to me that picking the next best running backs after the bell cows could absolutely be the key to winning a championship. So...I am very curious why you moved Forsett up past Forte, Hill and Gordon and why you dropped Gordon so far down in the latest Update Rankings? What is the latest and greatest on these two running backs?
Johnny Bazzano (Santa Rosa, CA)
PPR format. You want a running back who’s going to catch passes. Forsett seems to be a good enough receiver, and he’s now in a Marc Trestman offense, where we have seen guys like Charlie Garner, Matt Forte, Derek Loville and Larry Centers catch 90-plus passes. If Forsett can stay healthy and in the starting lineup, he’ll catch 80-plus balls. So among all running backs that will be selected in the first six rounds in your draft, he probably will be the best “deal”. Forte was a great pass catcher last year, but he’s the opposite in that the system is changed now, and he won’t be used as extensively in that capacity. Hill might have some receiving ability, but they didn’t really use him in that way last year. Gordon seems to be struggling in the passing game (and overall) thus far. I would probably go into your league with an eye on perhaps picking up Forsett in the third round.
Question 2
10 team Dynasty league, full point ppr, 6 points for td passes, first draft. If I can't get Bell, would you recommend locking down luck or rodgers, and hopefully getting OBJ or Julio in the second? Or do you think gronk offers enough weekly advantage at the position to be considered?
Garrett Seymour (Fitchburg, WI)
Dynasty league. That is, you’re keeping the guys forever. With that in mind, I would expect Andrew Luck would be the No. 1 pick overall. LeVeon Bell is great right now, but you’ve got to look at the next 10 years.
Question 3
Long-time super fanatic looking forward to the new season. My question is I'm in a dynasty league and looking for rankings in our rookie draft. Do you have a top 20 of rookie types for dynasty leagues? Maybe a couple of sleeper guys to be on the look out later in the draft? I snagged up Knile Davis thanks to your heads up a couple years ago.
Chris Krumenauer (Oshkosh, WI)
There’s the article on rookies in the magazine, along with the dynasty league cheat sheet on page 23. That’s still pretty much up to date. Let me see these guys play a couple of preseason games, and then we’ll re-visit those rankings in the upcoming versions of the August updates. (I think you’ll see the first revisions this coming Thursday, Aug. 20.) Right now I would still have Jameis Winston and Amari Cooper as the clear No. 1 guys at quarterback and wide receiver. With running backs, I think Ameer Abdullah now must be in the conversation with Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley; Abdullah looked pretty special last night. No tight ends that I’m excited about; Maxx Williams was the first one selected, but I think Clive Walford might be better (especially this year).
Question 4
Been using Fantasy Index since 1989: magazine/late preseason update/and playoff redraft products. I have somewhat of a cumbersome question. 14 team PPR and yardage league. QB TDs are 6 points. Each week we start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 FLEX RB/WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF. We draft 20 rounds and everyone MUST draft 2QB, 6RB, 6WR, 2 TE, 2 K, 2 DEF. And those draft parameters must be maintained at those exact #'s for the entire season. I've been considering using the Auction section of the Custom Rankings Generator even though we are not an auction league. Because the Auction option allows me to input # of players chosen @ each position and I know there will be EXACTLY 28 QB, 84 RB, 84 WR, 28 TE, 28 K, 28 DEF chosen @ the draft. My question is this: what values do you recommend I input in the boxes for the "Of these QB/RB/WR/TE/K/DEF, how many do you feel are worth more than the minimum bid?" I thought just one less than the # I know will be drafted since it doesn't allow me to input same #. I have fooled around with 50%, 75%, and 100% less one. Rankings are significantly affected by my choices.
SCOTT STEPHENSON (Maineville, OH)
You must respect that the players selected early as a lot more valuable than the players chosen in the late rounds. What’s the probability of the 55th running back or wide receiver, for example, even still being on your roster in the middle of October? You’ll be making waiver moves and trades. And your 24th quarterback, kicker, tight end or defense, might not even be in the top 28 of any of the other owners. So those guys by definition isn’t worth that much. You would gladly trade away the 60th wide receiver on your board if allowed you to turn your No. 20 wide receiver into a top-10 guy, and we’re starting to get a feel for values. For your league, I would go with 17 quarterbacks (Carson Palmer; he would be the last guys that’s worth a little bit more than just a throwaway-type pick). For running backs, about 45 guys (when you get into the late 40s, I think some of the guys in that range you will be able to get with a last-round pick because of the variance in draft boards). A tight end, I’ll go with 15 of the 24. Jordan Cameron and Tyler Eifert; those are the last at that position where I feel like they’re worth a little bit more than just a late-round pick. At wide receivers, I will go with 50 guys (it’s a PPR format, so that flex starter will be a wide receiver every week, rather than a running back). And I will go with about 5 kickers and 5 defenses (out of the 24 at each position).
Question 5
Keeper question: I picked up Sankey and Blue as FA last season. I can keep one and give up a 15th round pick. Should I keep one at that price?
dave harrison ()
If Blue wins the starting job in Houston, then I will have him higher than Sankey. But I’m not sure if that will happen. The Texans could go with another young back – Chris Polk, perhaps – or they could sign a veteran. They tried to sign Pierre Thomas for the minimum, but he’s hoping the price will go up if he waits. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has played for Bill O’Brien in the past; he’s another possibility. Maybe Ray Rice or Chris Johnson. So if you’re making your decision today, I would go with Sankey.
Question 6
In a 10-team, 1 pt PPR Keeper League. Options are Evans or McCoy. price is about the same for both. which do you prefer and why? Can keep players forever. I am leaning towards Evans. My other keepers are Jordy and Lamar Miller.
PHIL SCARCELLA (Palm Coast, FL)
Let’s see what they look like in the preseason, but right now I would be going with Mike Evans. He’s shown ability to be a playmaker receiver, taking the ball away from people. At Texas A&M, he made Johnny Manziel look very good. I remember the last Alabama game in particular, where Manziel kept throwing to Evans, who was using his size to dominate. And then Evans did a lot of the same kind of things at times as a rookie. He looks like he’ll be good for a long time. That’s enough, I think, to get him ahead of LeSean McCoy, but let’s see what they look like in the preseason. I am down on McCoy in part because I don’t think they’ll use him much as a pass catcher. The Jets never passed much to their backs, and Greg Roman (the offensive coordinator in Buffalo now) never used his backs as receivers in San Francisco. But Rex Ryan was saying something the other day about McCoy hopefully going over 1,000 yards as both a runner and a receiver. For now, I’ll consider that a big pile of BS, but let’s see what they do in their practice games. I might change McCoy’s projection.
Question 7
I'm in a 12-team league, we give 1 point for each 50 yards passing and 1 point for each 20 yards rushing or receiving. TDs are the standard 4 points for passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving. I entered these settings into the Custom Cheat Sheet. I expected to find that QBs would move down in the rankings a bit compared to standard scoring, given that the 1 point per 50 passing yards devalues quarterbacks a bit, or to be more accurate, QB yards are devalued more than RB or WR yards. Much to my surprise, the custom cheat sheet put Rodgers at #3 and Luck at #4 overall. QBs in general showed up much higher in the rankings than you'd think: Brees #27, Manning #29, Newton #30, etc. Even Flacco is at #45! So here's my question: in this scoring system should I really be drafting QBs that high? Or am I missing something?
kevin tschetter (SANDY, UT)
With the auction values, there’s the scoring system, and then there’s where you’re setting the baselines for each position. The quarterbacks look a little high to me, so my guess is you’ve got the baselines a little off. I agree with you; quarterbacks should have gone DOWN a little bit, relative to Standard scoring. Go back into your scoring profile and get into the auction setup area. There are questions there where you’re asked to identify how many players will be selected at each position and how many will go for more than $1.00 in the auction. Those are the numbers you want to work with. If you’re intimidated by the question “How many will go for more than the $1 million?” then instead think of it this way. Of the first 100 players selected in your auction, how many will be quarterbacks? How many will be running backs? I think if you go with about 44 wide receivers, 40 running backs and 16 quarterbacks, the mix should be about right.
Question 8
I'm a Pats fan but I'm pretty convinced that Miami is going to win the division with 11 or 12 wins. If I'm correct with this assumption, is it really a stretch to think that Lamar Miller rushes for 1400 yds and 14 tds? He barely had the ball last year and ran for 1100. I'm torn with keeping him for $12 or Jordy Nelson for $35 in an auction league with a cap of $300.
James COSTELLO (Biddeford, ME)
If you’re guaranteeing me that Miami will go 11-5 or 12-4, then I think it’s logical to keep Miller at $12 over Nelson at $35. (But can you guarantee me that?) Given that it’s a $300 cap, I think they both look like good deals.
Question 9
Great response to my question. I think you really made the point that Running Backs are the most unpredictable and least stable position in fantasy. I think if you are looking to build a "safe" lineup, picking top QBs and WRs makes sense. But back to my original question: What about actual players? Take Julian Edelman for example. I know you're high on him and I am too. He gets a ton of looks every week and the Pats (Brady) rely on him to move the chains in the middle of the field. He is not flashy; he won't often go long and isn't targeted around the end zone often. But, every week, he does catch a lot of short passes. That kind of consistently tells me that, barring injury, suspension, jail time ... he will be a safe option to put up predictable numbers. Worthy of a great "safe" second WR. And on the other side, look at guys like C.J. Anderson. He plays for one of the best offenses in the NFL and had a great year last year. But his sample size is small. Almost as small of a sample size as another Denver RB (Tatum Bell...) And his QB will definitely start to decline, maybe severely, at some point in the near future. Maybe not this year but sometime. Yes, he has a really high ceiling; he could be the number one back in the league. But given all the negatives, I think his floor could be really low too. A risky pick in my opinion. Given those examples, at the top of your head, does anyone in particular stick out who are "safe" and "risky" picks? Thanks!
Jake Haugen (Hutchinson, MN)
I would add Odell Beckham Jr. into the risky class. He was historically great as a rookie, and he’s definitely a special dude, but why didn’t that show up more at Louisiana State? In his final two years there, he caught only 10 of his team’s 35 TD passes. So as we move into 2015 and opponents start throwing more double teams his way, I wonder if the Giants will counter by going to other players more.
Question 10
I just joined a keeper league. Every team gets two keepers. In this league you start seven idp's. What round should I start to look at these defensive players considering we are technically starting in round three? Is that too early for a JJ Watt? I think the scoring for them is high. 1.5/tackle, 1/tackle assist, 4/sack, 4/int, 2/fumble force, 2/fumble recovery, 6/td, 2/safety, 2/pass defend, 2/block kick.
Tony Zeller (Dundalk, MD)
I’ve never actually been in a league with individual defensive players, so I can’t speak from experience. But the process is the same. You decide what you’ll get if you wait until the late round to select a player. That is, you decide what kind of production is there for pretty much free if you address the position in the 12th-14th round. Then you look at how much better you could be if you picked one of the more heralded options earlier. J.J. Watt is the No. 1 defensive player on Andy Richardson’s board, I know that. If you want to see his exact defensive projections, they are available as the fourth and final tab in the Excel stat download that comes out twice as week as part of our regular product.
Question 11
I am in a two-QB, 10 team keeper league. We get to keep any players drafted in rounds 9-12, for up to three years. I am going to keep Carlos Hyde, and drop Khiry Robinson. I am on the fence on whether to keep Kyle Rudolph. I am also considering drafting Arian Foster as a keeper if he slips to rounds 9 or 10 and then doubling back to get Alfred Blue. Should I keep Rudolph and pick up Foster? Keeping one player uses up your 12th draft pick, two uses up 11th pick, etc. So I might be able to get Rudolph in the 11th or 12th picks anyway.
Andrew Napoli (Springfield, VA)
Clever ideas. I think Rudolph will be headed for a breakout-type season if he can stay healthy, so that makes a lot of sense. Considering his age, contract and history of injuries, I don't think it's a given that Foster is still with Houston in 2016.
Question 12
I am sure this is nothing more than a “first-class problem”, but having won our league last year, in a few mock drafts I have found myself leaning towards drafting guys who were on my team last year, even though they might not be the cheat sheet’s best available. For example – E. Sanders over R. Cobb or J. Charles over L. Bell. Is this completely irrational and should I try to forget last year’s squad or are these feelings in any way justified given last year’s performance?
Michael Massad (Dallas, TX)
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with tweaking the rankings a little. Sanders and Cobb, those are pretty similar wide receivers. Same with Charles and Bell. If you want to keep your championship core together, I think that’s fine.
Question 13
I can’t figure out how to add the auction values to my custom scoring. The league I want to use it with is 8 Team, PPR with 2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1Flex, 1DEF, 1K, 6Bench. QB passing TDs are 4 pts. Thanks for any help you can provide.You log in. You click on “Your Stuff”. Then click on “Your Scoring Profiles”. You want a custom scoring system, so you click on “Create a new Scoring System”. You click “continue”, name the profile “Vehar” or whatever. Fill out all of the scoring specs (that you want 1 point for each reception and whatnot). Near the bottom, there’s an “Auction Values” box. Click that one. Once you active that, there’s about 10 questions you need to answer. Some of those require a little thought. For your league, I would guess that 24 quarterbacks will be purchased, and 15 will go for more than $1. I think 36 running backs will be selected, with 25 worth more than $1. About 42 wide receivers selected, with 31 worth more than $1. Maybe 11 tight ends, with 6 above the minimum. And probably just 8 each at kicker and defense, with maybe 1-2 worth more than $1. Good luck.
Gary Vehar (Vienna Township, OH)
You log in. You click on “Your Stuff”. Then click on “Your Scoring Profiles”. You want a custom scoring system, so you click on “Create a new Scoring System”. You click “continue”, name the profile “Vehar” or whatever. Fill out all of the scoring specs (that you want 1 point for each reception and whatnot). Near the bottom, there’s an “Auction Values” box. Click that one. Once you active that, there’s about 10 questions you need to answer. Some of those require a little thought. For your league, I would guess that 24 quarterbacks will be purchased, and 15 will go for more than $1. I think 36 running backs will be selected, with 25 worth more than $1. About 42 wide receivers selected, with 31 worth more than $1. Maybe 11 tight ends, with 6 above the minimum. And probably just 8 each at kicker and defense, with maybe 1-2 worth more than $1. Good luck.
Question 14
In all the previous years you guys had an experts matrix that listed out predictions like "breakout year" "comeback year" "best rookie" (thanks for Sankey there guys) "best sleeper" "most overrated" etc. What happened to that?
ian zelesko (New York, NY)
Those grids were fun, but we phased them out a couple of years ago. We decided to use that editorial space would be better utilized in other ways.
