Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Are the Colts are shoo-in for more than 10 wins? Which kickers will be hurt most by the new 2-point rules? And how should we group the quarterbacks into tiers?
Question 1
I respect your opinion tremendously and need a quick reply. Vegas has Colts at wins 10.5 but you have to lay a huge 1.65. But looking at their schedule, barring a Luck injury I can't see them winning fewer than 12 games. Thoughts?
Vernon Jones (Rockville, MD)
A Luck injury needs to be part of the calculation. He runs a lot and hangs in the pocket too long at time, so it’s definitely possible. Maybe 10-15 percent chance that he misses a month or more. That’s significant, because if he goes down, you would be dead in the water. But whatever. In a few weeks (after I’ve had a chance to see all of the teams play their second and third preseason games) I will put together the chart where I put a number on all 256 regular season games. But for now, we can make early guesses on the 16 Indianapolis games. I see two where they probably will be an underdog. New England and at Pittsburgh. I see another four where they might be underdogs (games that look pretty close to pick-ems right now): at Carolina, Denver, at Atlanta, and at Miami. They’re at Buffalo in Week 1, and I could see them flubbing that one. That leaves nine that they should win, but no doubt one of those opponents will come up and bite them, with either the Saints or Texans (twice) the most likely culprits. Expressing that mathematically, it comes out to something like 2 x (40%) + 4 x (50%) + 9 x (90%) + 1 x (60%) = 11.5 wins. So the 10.5 over-under to me looks low. Gut tells me 11-5 for the Colts this year.
Question 2
Which teams do you see going for the 2-point conversion the most (and thus hurting the value of their kickers by a dozen or so points)?
MIKE HERNANDEZ (Yakima, WA)
I don’t expect any teams to attempt a meaningful number of 2-point conversions. With the extra points now from 33 yards, it’s still just a tap in. Success rate, I think, will be 95-96 percent. We’re seeing some teams attempt 2-point conversions in the preseason, but I think that’s just because the coaches are taking the opportunity to give their offense some goal-line work. When the real games roll around, everyone will be kicking.
Question 3
I'm in a PPR league and TDs are all worth 6 points. You have Luck and Rogers going first for QBs, the first tier. How would you group the rest of the QBs to take? Second tier, third tier etc.
John Wozniak (Lackawanna, NY)
I’ve got seven quarterbacks in the second tier, and I don’t see much difference between those guys. Matt Ryan and Cam Newton, I think, will go later than some of those other guys, but I think they’re right there with the big-name guys in that group (in particular, Manning and Brees). There’s a step down to the third tier, but those guys can also play – Rivers, Romo, Flacco, Tannehill and Stafford. Flacco I see as the up-and-comer. I think he’ll be helped by the new offensive system. Romo would be in the top tier, but he’s had the series of back injuries.
Question 4
When do I draft a IDP in a 8 team draft? I am a veteran player of larger (12 teams) drafts, but never before with one IDP. So, teams will be stacked and I want to show my son's young naive friends how it's done. So which round should I pull the trigger? And can you suggest a few sure fire guys to draft so I don't have to worry about that position the whole season? Thanks.
derek king ()
I’ve never done an IDP draft, so I can’t speak from experience. But the process is the same as with the offensive players. You decide what’s going to be available in the late rounds, and then you measure how much better you could be by selecting the elite guys. Andy Richardson has final say on IDP rankings around here. They can be found in the Monday & Thursday products (for his exact projections, see the fourth tab of the Excel stat projection file). In the scoring system he’s supposing (which includes tackles), after the first 12 defensive linemen, he’s got about 10 between 135-145 fantasy points. That looks like the baseline. If you want to pay for more than that, you go for one of the elite guys. He’s got J.J. Watt at No. 1, with 247 points. And he’s got another half-dozen guys in the 166-180 range. Of that group, I saw Everson Griffen blowing into the backfield against Cincinnati. He looks like a good sack option – an up-and-comer who might be more favorably priced than some of the other options. At linebacker, after the top 10 he’s got a ton of guys between 150-162 points. You can get that kind of production if you wait. At the top, he’s got two of the tackling machine linebackers, Luke Kuechly and Lavonte David, up at 222 and 206 points. With defensive backs, outside the top dozen he’s got a bunch of guys between 132-145 points. That’s the baseline. Tops at that positions, he’s got three of the high-volume tacklers – Eric Weddle, Morgan Burnett and Harrison Smith. Scoring systems vary, of course, but if you’re giving any kind of credit for tackles, it’s better to go for middle linebackers and safeties, rather than outside backers and cornerbacks. They’re just in on a lot more plays. If your league requires you to select a cornerback, please keep Malcolm Butler in mind. Watching the Green Bay game, I noticed that he very much looks ready to be a No. 1 cornerback. I don’t think the Patriots will miss Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner as much as people are thinking. For fantasy purposes, I think Butler will outperform the very best corners – Revis, Richard Sherman and Joe Haden. More teams will try to attack him, I think, and I believe he’s ready to hold up in that role. He should get more tackles than those elite guys, and I think he might get more picks than them as well.
Question 5
What are your thoughts on drafting (and playing) multiple parts of the same team? In other words, grabbing both Hyde and Bush, Blount and White, Ingram and Spiller, Hill and Bernard? The strategy is to grab both parts of a running tandem later in the draft (since both will tend to be less valued), and then play both every week. If one player has a great game, you're almost guaranteed to get it. If one player gets hurt, you already have the handcuff.
Andrew Napoli (Springfield, VA)
Some pairings are different than others. With Ingram and Spiller, for example, you’re definitely get parts of a running game. If Spiller isn’t ready on opening day, that is, it doesn’t really affect Ingram. They would just move Khiry Robinson up into the Spiller role. Same with Blount and White. White’s role (if he’s got that third-down role) won’t change much with Blount out in the first game; they’ll just plug in Jonas Gray. With Giovani Bernard, you’re getting more of a handcuff guy. He’ll catch some passes most weeks; he’ll have some nominal value. But it will only be if and when Jeremy Hill gets sidelined that Bernard would really explode. I’m a fan of trying to collect No. 2 running backs. We’re just finishing the 20-round Fanex Draft, and behind my starting running backs (Hill and Andre Ellington), I have two pass catchers (White and Danny Woodhead – it’s a PPR) and a fleet of backups – Jerick McKinnon, James Starks, Lorenzo Taliaferro, Chris Johnson and either Robert Turbin or Damien Williams with my final pick. With backup running backs, the more you can fit onto your roster, the more chances you have to maybe catch onto something special.
Question 6
#11 pick this year in a standard point system that starts 3 WRs, should I look to balance the lineup with a RB and WR in 1st/2nd rounds? Most mock drafts I have done have Hill, McCoy, Murray and Julio, Dez, Beckham available. Other theory is go WR/WR and leave RB till 3/4th. Your guidance is always appreciated.
Grant Markgraf (Elmhurst, IL)
I faced a similar kind of decision in a couple drafts I did last month. Those Fanex drafts. It’s PPR scoring, with 3 starting wide receivers and a flex (so almost every year in that league, I tend to start 4 wide receivers and only 2 running backs). Most of the guys in that league really go after running backs. Anyway, in both of those drafts, I selected a wide receiver in the first round, and when I was back on the clock in the early second round, the highest-rated player was a second wide receiver. But in both of those drafts, I kind of chickened out and selected a running back instead, trying to avoid being forced to select a running back way out of his value slot in one of the next four rounds. In each of those cases, after the first six rounds were complete, I went back and re-examined the various scenarios. In both cases, I concluded that I was correct to go with the WR-RB split in the first two rounds. My teams would have been worse had I just stuck to my overall board. So if I was holding your draft pick, my guess is I would select Julio Jones at 1.11, then probably go with Jeremy Hill (or another running back) at 2.02. But I don’t have the exact specs. Is it a PPR league? If it’s PPR, then I would be more willing to select two of those playmaker receivers with my first two picks, with Jones, Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham Jr. in that top group.
Question 7
I have a keeper question. I am in a 16-team PPR league, in which you can only keep 1 player. My best options are Julio Jones, C.J. Anderson and LeSean McCoy. I won this league last season, so I will have the 16th and 17th picks (after every team has kept one). I’m thinking of taking Julio and then hoping to get two RBs with my first two picks unless there is a stud WR that falls to me. What do you think?
Dennis Sosic ()
Agree on Jones. I think he might be the No. 1 player overall in your format. I think he’ll catch 110-plus balls. He’s right up there with Antonio Brown, in my eyes (I’ve actually got Jones a little higher right now). But I wouldn’t go into the draft thinking that I’d be selecting two running backs with my first two picks. As I look at my board, I see mostly wide receivers around 32 and 33 (which is what those picks are, after you factor in the keepers). On my board, 8 of the 14 players between 17th and 31st are wide receivers. So rather than selecting two running backs, I would be assuming that I’ll for sure be selecting one wide receiver there, and the second pick might be one where I might kind of squeeze in a running, even if he’s not the highest-rated player.
Question 8
In a 10-team league that utilizes formations and is an auction. I am debating between going after players in these two formations. 1qb 3rb 1wr 1te. Or 1qb 1rb 4wr. All other formations have a te with a mix of wr and rb. None have two qbs. Standard scoring no ppr. So between these two formations which could I get more bang for the buck. We auction 10 rds and draft 4 at the end. Must have defense and a kicker. 100 dollar cap.
Mike Munson (Tracy, MN)
Let’s just look at RB-WR-TE. Forget about the other positions, since you’re selecting just one of each. Of my top 50 field players, 26 are wide receivers, 23 are running backs and 1 tight end. In the second 50 (players 51-100) I see another 26 wide receivers, 19 running backs and 5 tight ends. So a pretty even mix. And as the season transpires and guys are popping off and on rosters, keep in mind that the best hunting will be at running backs. That’s the position where if Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles or Adrian Peterson gets hurt, you’re sitting on a gold mine with James Starks, Knile Davis or Jerick McKinnon. This isn’t the same with the top 5 wide receivers. Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. aren’t as likely to get hurt, and when they do, there isn’t a backup who steps in and shreds it. The other receivers on those teams would catch more balls, of course, but it’s just not quite the same. Nor do the injuries happen as frequently. So my leaning in your league would be to go in planning to play 2 RB, 2 WR and 1 TE. If other guys are overpaying for running backs, you could reconsider and go with more of a run-and-shoot look.
Question 9
In a 16-team league, snake style draft. How would you draft starting in the 6th position?
jack crowder (DENHAM SPRINGS, LA)
Answer would vary based on scoring system. If it’s PPR, I’d be hoping for either Julio Jones or Antonio Brown. If it’s 6 points per TD pass, then we get Rodgers and Luck in the discussion. Start by compiling your overall board using your scoring system. You’re picking 6th, 27th and 38th. Look at the board and make an educated guess of who you’ll be picking in the second and third rounds. Most likely it will be about the 20th and 25th players on your board, I think.
Question 10
What are your thoughts as to players on the same team. Lacy/Cobb and J.Hill/AJ Green. In a keeper league where this could be an option
FRANK LEE (Pinellas Park, FL)
If it’s the Packers, then I’m for it. I think they’ll have the league’s best offense this year, so we should all be trying to latch onto that offense in as many ways as we can. They had a lot of games with 35-plus points at home last year. With lesser teams, my preference is to diversify, but it’s not something I feel strongly about. I’m not a fan of selecting a lesser player, just because he plays on a different team than somebody I selected earlier.
Question 11
I have what I would consider a good dilemma. I am in a 12-team (non PPR) keeper league. I am drafting in the 9th position. QBs are valued high in our league, we give 6 pts per TD. I can keep Big Ben in the 14th round, Jeremy Hill in the 10th round, or Mike Evans in the 10th round. I know either Hill or Evans would be there at 1.09 (if not someone better.) Would the best value be to keep Big Ben in the 14th, knowing I can get someone of equal value at 1.09 to Hill or Evans? Thanks for your help!
Justin Chambers (Humble, TX)
Start by using the custom scoring to see what the overall board looks like. That’s step one. If Roethlisberger is the highest-rated player, then it’s a pretty easy decision. If you protect him, you get a 10th-round pick rather than a 14th, and there’s some value there. There are, however, a lot of good quarterbacks out there. Luck and Rodgers, of course, will be long gone. But there are six other quarterbacks that look pretty much interchangeable with Roethlisberger. Is one of those guys going to be available at 1.09? If you let Roethlisberger go, would all nine of those quarterbacks be gobbled up? There are 12 keeper spots and eight draft picks ahead of you. But probably no reason to get too cute, since you’re confident you could get Evans or Hill at 1.09 anyway. Evans probably isn’t quite worth that spot. Talented guy, but it could take some time for Tampa Bay’s passing game to get rolling. Jameis Winston looked pretty iffy in his first game. Hill was a monster in the second half of last year, and I think he’ll continue to thrive. If you decide to get cute and hope Matt Ryan or Eli Manning is there in the first round, then Hill would be the guy to protect.
Question 12
12 Team PPR league, with a heavy emphasis on QBs: 7 pts for TD, extra 5 points for any over 40 yards, and 1 pt for every 5 yards (which is the exact same as wr, te, or rb). Top rated qb (Luck) is projected (through FFI custom rankings) to average 76 pts a game while top rated rb 25 and wr close to 30. The trend in our league has been to draft a qb quick (a trend I started six years ago) in the first rd and second rd at latest. I have the third pick this year and believe that the big two (Luck/Rodgers) will be gone leaving me with a "take your pick" next ten. Due to your projections on qb's, I really want to go off the radar and let the chips fall leaving me with the #12 qb (but some stud starters at rb/wr. Am I crazy to do this under our qb dominate scoring system?
Emerson Snee (Waynesburg, PA)
I played around with this some for about 10 minutes. It’s an interesting math problem. I worked on a spreadsheet, rather than with the custom rankings tool, so I lost the 5-point bonuses for touchdowns over 40 yards, but I don’t think that’s too significant. All quarterbacks will get some of those, but I don’t know that it will tweak the rankings too much. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees would probably all fall a little (Manning and Brees don’t have strong arms, and Brady throws a lot of short balls) but whatever. Let’s leave that out. Luck and Rodgers grade out as the top 2 players overall, which is no surprise, but I am surprised to see only five other quarterbacks showing up before the end of the second round. Key is the depth at quarterback. If you wait until the third round to take a quarterback, you would probably be OK. I’ve got Matt Ryan as my No. 3 quarterback, and I think there’s even an outside chance that you might get him at the end of the second round. Probably not, but maybe. When I started playing around with the numbers, I looked at the players I expected would be selected in about the first six-seven rounds. I went with 15 quarterbacks, 32 running backs, 4 tight ends and 30 wide receivers. Then I looked at the stat differences between those guys – how much better they are than the best at their position who wasn’t selected. By that math, you should be looking at Julio Jones or Antonio Brown with the third pick. With you being in Pittsburgh, you might be willing to find someone willing to trade up for a Steeler. (Even outside of Pittsburgh, Brown, LeVeon Bell and Roethlisberger might all be first-round picks in that format).
Question 13
In a 10-team dynasty league, can keep 1-4 players, 4th player cost you 25 bucks that goes towards points leader pot. I have A.J GREEN JEREMY HILL, E.SANDERS, ARIAN FOSTER, J. EDELMAN, E.MANNING. Am thinking of keeping hill, green, sanders and might try to get foster on 3rd round 8th pick or 4th round 3 pick, what are your thoughts, since foster might be out only a month.
GARY CASEY (Louisville, KY)
GREEN, HILL, SANDERS (as you might say). Agree on those guys. Edelman would be a factor if it was PPR scoring. If your quarterbacks are valued, then we can talk about Manning. Other than Rodgers and Luck, I think he’s as good as any of the other quarterbacks. Look at what he did in the second half of last season. In this final nine games, he averaged 315 passing yards, with 16 TDs and 9 interceptions. As for Foster, I’ve got him around 20th among running backs right now. Best-case scenario would be that he comes back on the early side, plays 12 games, and is a top-10 back during that time period. But he’s had a lot of problems staying healthy, so there’s a lot of ifs in there. He’s got to come back early. If his replacements have been playing well, he has to quickly push them to the side and get back to playing in a full-time type role. And he’s got to somehow stay healthy for 10-12 straight games, which has been hard for him.
