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BUFFALO (vs Indianapolis):
The Patriots and Colts played in the AFC Championship game last year, and the Bills oddly have a reasonable chance of opening the season with wins over both of those teams. Both of those games will be at Ralph Wilson Stadium, and the Bill are a viable playoff sleeper. They’ve got one of the league’s best defenses, and their unorthodox offense will cause some problems. The Colts are 3-point favorites, but in our eyes
This report is taken from today's Week 1 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 19 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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that looks a little high. ... It starts with the running game. The Colts, recall, have problems up front. They got run over in those two blowout losses against the Patriots last year, with Jonas Gray and LeGarrette Blount combining for 353 yards and 7 TDs in those games. Now the No. 1 key to their run defense, 337-pound Arthur Jones, is out for the year. So they will be mauled again in some games, and one of those could come on Sunday. The Bills have an elite back, LeSean McCoy, and they have probably the game’s fastest quarterback, Tyrod Taylor, opening things up with that constant threat of him keeping the ball and scampering outside for huge yards. It’s a simple offense, but one that could give the Colts all kinds of problems. This might be the top rushing offense in the league this week. McCoy has been out with a hamstring injury, but he says he expects to be fine. If he’s healthy and they give him his usual kind of workload, he’ll probably be a top-5 back this week. If they’re nervous about him aggravating that injury (a killer blow to their season) then they may play it safe by spelling him more than usual. Rex Ryan doesn’t sound as optimistic about the hamstring as McCoy does. Right now, we’re operating under the assumption that McCoy will play and play well, but that he’ll be spelled more than usual. If he practices fully during the week, we will upgrade McCoy on Friday. If, come Friday, it looks possible that McCoy will sit out, then we can start thinking about how the Bills will utilize their fleet of backup running backs – Karlos Williams, Boobie Dixon and Bryce Brown. Running backs coach Anthony Lynn indicates that Williams will be the team’s backup tailback. ... We like Tyrod Taylor a lot. Most fantasy leagues are heavily slanted in favor of quarterbacks who run, and he looks like he might be the best running quarterback in the league. He’s got unusual speed, and they’re going to use him on a lot of designed runs – read-option, bootlegs, and pass plays that break down. He’ll have many games with over 40-60 rushing yards, and those are equal to 80-120 passing yards in most fantasy leagues. He’ll run for touchdowns. And he also seems to be coming along nicely as a passer. He completed 77 percent of his passes in the preseason, even though he didn’t get to play at all with his top three wide receivers. He’ll go up against a Colts defense that looks pretty ordinary, and one that could be punch drunk from trying to contend with this running game. The Colts allowed an average of 246 passing yards per game last year, with 27 TDs. ... It looks like an average-type matchup for the pass catchers. Sammy Watkins sat out much of August with a glute injury, but he’s definitely playing, and he’s definitely the No. 1 option in this passing game. The beat reporters suggest Watkins was by far the team’s best player in training camp. Robert Woods is the other starting receiver. Percy Harvin has more name recognition, but he’s going to be just their No. 3 receiver. Charles Clay looks like a pretty nominal tight end, but he hit the Steelers for a 67-yard touchdown in the preseason. ... Dan Carpenter was shaky in the preseason, going just 3-6 on field goals. With a bad miss early in the year, the Bills may decide to cut him. But Rex Ryan says they’re going to give Carpenter a chance to come around. He’s been great the last two years, hitting 67 of 74 field goals. ... The Bills Defense is an elite group. It’s piled up a league-high 111 sacks over the last two years and might dominate this matchup up front. But Andrew Luck isn’t an easy quarterback to work against. He’s been sacked only 59 times in his last 32 games, with 25 interceptions. It’s rare to harass him into 3-plus sacks and multiple turnovers.
