Fantasy News

December 12, 2015

Defenses / Special Teams

An early look at Week 15-16 rankings

Earlier I did the kicker numbers. Here’s the defensive data. Prior to Week 14, this is an estimate of how the defenses should fare in Weeks 15 and 16. It’s an averaging of each defense, compared against the offense it will face.

There is no true “analysis” here. There is no accounting for which teams have just plugged a turnover-plagued quarterback into their lineup, or which team’s pass rush has heated up (or cooled down). No weight is given towards home-field advantage. But it provides a reasonable starting point in the debate.

Scoring is based on 6 points for touchdowns on returns (including special teams), 2 for each takeaway and 1 for each sack.

For Week 15, the first-blush numbers indicate Carolina, Seattle and Denver will have the best fantasy defenses.

PRELIMINARY DEFENSE RANKINGS (Week 15)
Rk	Team	Opponent	Sack	TA	TD	Points
1.	Carolina	at NY Giants	2.3	1.8	.42	8.4
2.	Seattle	Cleveland	3.0	1.6	.35	8.3
3.	Denver	at Pittsburgh	2.8	1.8	.35	8.3
4.	Kansas City	at Baltimore	2.2	1.8	.32	7.8
5.	Philadelphia	Arizona	2.0	1.8	.31	7.4
6.	New England	Tennessee	3.1	1.7	.14	7.3
7.	NY Jets	at Dallas	2.2	1.9	.21	7.2
8.	NY Giants	Carolina	1.5	1.6	.39	7.1
9.	Miami	at San Diego	2.3	1.3	.33	7.0
10.	Arizona	at Philadelphia	2.0	1.8	.21	6.9
11.	Houston	at Indianapolis	2.4	1.6	.21	6.9
12.	Washington	Buffalo	2.2	1.4	.32	6.9
13.	Atlanta	at Jacksonville	2.0	1.6	.26	6.9
14.	New Orleans	Detroit	2.3	1.6	.22	6.9
15.	Pittsburgh	Denver	2.6	1.8	.13	6.8
16.	Detroit	at New Orleans	2.5	1.3	.24	6.6
17.	Buffalo	at Washington	1.6	1.6	.31	6.6
18.	Baltimore	Kansas City	2.8	.8	.33	6.5
19.	Cincinnati	at San Francisco	2.8	1.3	.15	6.3
20.	Tampa Bay	at St. Louis	1.8	1.7	.17	6.3
21.	Indianapolis	Houston	1.8	1.4	.25	6.1
22.	St. Louis	Tampa Bay	2.3	1.6	.10	6.1
23.	Cleveland	at Seattle	2.3	1.2	.21	6.0
24.	Minnesota	Chicago	2.0	1.3	.25	6.0
25.	Chicago	at Minnesota	2.5	1.0	.21	5.9
26.	Green Bay	at Oakland	2.1	1.5	.13	5.8
27.	Tennessee	at New England	2.6	1.1	.13	5.6
28.	Jacksonville	Atlanta	2.2	1.5	.06	5.5
29.	San Francisco	Cincinnati	1.7	.9	.29	5.2
30.	Oakland	Green Bay	2.4	1.1	.08	5.2
31.	Dallas	NY Jets	1.7	1.1	.17	4.9
32.	San Diego	Miami	2.3	1.1	.00	4.6

For Week 16, Kansas City, Denver and Philadelphia project to put up the best numbers.

PRELIMINARY DEFENSE RANKINGS (Week 16)
Rk	Team	Opponent	Sack	TA	TD	Points
1.	Kansas City	Cleveland	3.1	1.9	.31	8.7
2.	Denver	Cincinnati	2.5	1.5	.51	8.5
3.	Philadelphia	Washington	2.1	1.8	.43	8.2
4.	NY Giants	at Minnesota	2.1	1.5	.47	7.9
5.	Carolina	at Atlanta	2.4	2.1	.18	7.7
6.	Miami	Indianapolis	2.3	1.6	.33	7.4
7.	Buffalo	Dallas	1.8	1.7	.35	7.2
8.	Pittsburgh	at Baltimore	2.3	1.8	.23	7.2
9.	New Orleans	Jacksonville	2.5	1.5	.28	7.2
10.	Houston	at Tennessee	2.9	1.6	.17	7.0
11.	Minnesota	NY Giants	2.0	1.2	.42	6.9
12.	St. Louis	at Seattle	3.0	1.3	.22	6.9
13.	Washington	at Philadelphia	2.0	1.8	.19	6.7
14.	Oakland	San Diego	2.5	1.5	.17	6.5
15.	Seattle	St. Louis	1.9	1.5	.25	6.5
16.	Cincinnati	at Denver	2.5	1.7	.08	6.4
17.	Arizona	Green Bay	2.1	1.3	.28	6.3
18.	Tampa Bay	Chicago	2.0	1.5	.21	6.3
19.	Detroit	San Francisco	2.9	1.0	.22	6.2
20.	Baltimore	Pittsburgh	2.2	1.2	.25	6.1
21.	Jacksonville	at New Orleans	2.4	1.4	.17	6.1
22.	Cleveland	at Kansas City	2.3	1.1	.25	6.1
23.	Tennessee	Houston	2.4	1.3	.17	6.0
24.	Indianapolis	at Miami	2.2	1.5	.13	5.9
25.	Atlanta	Carolina	1.5	1.5	.25	5.9
26.	NY Jets	New England	2.4	1.4	.08	5.7
27.	New England	at NY Jets	2.2	1.5	.10	5.7
28.	Green Bay	at Arizona	2.2	1.4	.08	5.5
29.	San Francisco	at Detroit	2.1	1.3	.13	5.5
30.	Dallas	at Buffalo	2.3	.9	.22	5.4
31.	Chicago	at Tampa Bay	2.0	1.4	.00	4.8
32.	San Diego	at Oakland	1.7	1.3	.08	4.8

And if you combine those numbers and look at the totals for Weeks 15-16, Denver, Kansas City, Carolina and Philadelphia project to have the best overall defenses.

PRELIMINARY DEFENSE RANKINGS (Weeks 15-16)
Rk	Team	Sack	TA	TD	Points
1.	Denver	5.3	3.2	.86	16.9
2.	Kansas City	5.3	3.7	.62	16.5
3.	Carolina	4.8	3.9	.60	16.2
4.	Philadelphia	4.1	3.5	.74	15.6
5.	NY Giants	3.6	3.1	.86	15.0
6.	Seattle	4.9	3.2	.60	14.8
7.	Miami	4.6	2.9	.67	14.4
8.	New Orleans	4.8	3.1	.50	14.0
9.	Pittsburgh	4.8	3.5	.36	14.0
10.	Houston	5.3	3.2	.38	14.0
11.	Buffalo	3.4	3.3	.65	13.8
12.	Washington	4.2	3.2	.51	13.6
13.	Arizona	4.1	3.1	.48	13.3
14.	New England	5.3	3.1	.24	13.0
15.	St. Louis	5.3	2.9	.32	13.0
16.	NY Jets	4.6	3.3	.29	12.9
17.	Minnesota	4.0	2.5	.67	12.9
18.	Detroit	5.4	2.3	.46	12.8
19.	Atlanta	3.5	3.1	.51	12.7
20.	Cincinnati	5.3	3.0	.23	12.7
21.	Baltimore	5.0	2.0	.58	12.6
22.	Tampa Bay	3.9	3.2	.38	12.5
23.	Cleveland	4.7	2.3	.46	12.1
24.	Indianapolis	4.0	2.9	.38	12.0
25.	Oakland	4.9	2.7	.25	11.7
26.	Tennessee	5.0	2.4	.29	11.6
27.	Jacksonville	4.5	2.9	.22	11.6
28.	Green Bay	4.3	2.9	.21	11.3
29.	Chicago	4.6	2.4	.21	10.7
30.	San Francisco	3.8	2.2	.42	10.6
31.	Dallas	3.9	2.0	.39	10.3
32.	San Diego	4.0	2.4	.08	9.3

—Ian Allan

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