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December 12, 2015

Kicker rankings

An early peek at Week 15-16 rankings

I’ve had a few guys asking about kicker and defense rankings for Weeks 15-16. They’re looking at playoff matchups down the road. I have tossed out a few ideas. But now that it’s Saturday and there’s a little more time to work with, I can offer a more detailed answer.

Specifically, I can average what offenses have done so far against what defenses have allowed. That is, if a team so far has scored 100 kicking points, and it’s going against a defense that has allowed 85 kicking points, it’s first-blush number would be 185 (divided by 24 games = 7.7 points).

These aren’t official rankings. They don’t factor in home-field advantage, and they give no weight to what teams have done recently. A team that was pretty good in September, for example, might now be really crappy. Maybe a team has lost four straight or just lost its Pro Bowl quarterback or whatever.

But this kind of approach provides a reasonable starting point in the figuring.

Here be the kicking estimates for Week 15 (not this week’s games, but next week’s).

KICKING POINTS ESTIMATE, WEEK 15
RkTeamOpponentPoints
1.Carolinaat NY Giants9.0
2.Kansas Cityat Baltimore8.7
3.Arizonaat Philadelphia8.3
4.SeattleCleveland8.3
5.Tampa Bayat St. Louis8.3
6.NY Jetsat Dallas8.0
7.Green Bayat Oakland7.9
8.MinnesotaChicago7.7
9.New EnglandTennessee7.6
10.Atlantaat Jacksonville7.6
11.Chicagoat Minnesota7.5
12.PittsburghDenver7.4
13.Detroitat New Orleans7.4
14.NY GiantsCarolina7.3
15.DallasNY Jets7.3
16.Cincinnatiat San Francisco7.3
17.Denverat Pittsburgh7.0
18.Buffaloat Washington7.0
19.San DiegoMiami6.9
20.St. LouisTampa Bay6.9
21.BaltimoreKansas City6.8
22.WashingtonBuffalo6.8
23.JacksonvilleAtlanta6.7
24.Clevelandat Seattle6.6
25.PhiladelphiaArizona6.6
26.New OrleansDetroit6.6
27.OaklandGreen Bay6.6
28.Houstonat Indianapolis6.5
29.Miamiat San Diego6.4
30.IndianapolisHouston6.2
31.San FranciscoCincinnati5.8
32.Tennesseeat New England5.5

Here are the numbers for Week 16 for kickers …

KICKING POINTS ESTIMATE, WEEK 16
RkTeamOpponentPoints
1.Kansas CityCleveland8.8
2.Pittsburghat Baltimore8.3
3.Chicagoat Tampa Bay8.2
4.SeattleSt. Louis8.2
5.New Englandat NY Jets8.1
6.MinnesotaNY Giants8.1
7.Jacksonvilleat New Orleans8.0
8.NY Giantsat Minnesota7.9
9.Tampa BayChicago7.8
10.Carolinaat Atlanta7.8
11.ArizonaGreen Bay7.8
12.San Diegoat Oakland7.7
13.OaklandSan Diego7.7
14.Washingtonat Philadelphia7.6
15.BaltimorePittsburgh7.4
16.BuffaloDallas7.4
17.Cincinnatiat Denver7.1
18.PhiladelphiaWashington7.1
19.Dallasat Buffalo7.0
20.Green Bayat Arizona6.9
21.New OrleansJacksonville6.8
22.DenverCincinnati6.8
23.NY JetsNew England6.8
24.Indianapolisat Miami6.7
25.San Franciscoat Detroit6.6
26.DetroitSan Francisco6.6
27.AtlantaCarolina6.5
28.St. Louisat Seattle6.3
29.MiamiIndianapolis6.0
30.Clevelandat Kansas City5.7
31.TennesseeHouston5.5
32.Houstonat Tennessee5.5

Finally, these are the two-week totals for kickers …

KICKING POINTS ESTIMATE, WEEKS 15-16
RkTeamPoints
1.Kansas City17.5
2.Carolina16.8
3.Seattle16.4
4.Arizona16.1
5.Tampa Bay16.0
6.Chicago15.8
7.Minnesota15.8
8.New England15.8
9.Pittsburgh15.7
10.NY Giants15.2
11.Green Bay14.8
12.NY Jets14.8
13.Jacksonville14.6
14.San Diego14.6
15.Washington14.4
16.Buffalo14.4
17.Cincinnati14.4
18.Baltimore14.3
19.Dallas14.3
20.Oakland14.3
21.Atlanta14.1
22.Detroit14.0
23.Denver13.8
24.Philadelphia13.7
25.New Orleans13.4
26.St. Louis13.1
27.Indianapolis12.9
28.Miami12.4
29.San Francisco12.4
30.Cleveland12.3
31.Houston12.0
32.Tennessee11.0

I will list the defensive numbers in a separate post.

—Ian Allan

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