Fantasy Index

Fantasy Football Index publisher Ian Allan answers your questions about fantasy football. Click here to submit a question.

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Mailbag for December 24, 2015

Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Is it time for all of us to start using first- and second-round picks on quarterbacks? Is fantasy football better (or worse) than it was 20 years ago? Which teams have the worst run and pass defenses?

Question 1

Happy Holidays, Ian. Not really a question, just a few observations. I'm in the championship in 3 out of 4 leagues and I only use one reference tool - Fantasy Index! In the three championship games, I have Eli as starting QB on all three teams (Winston backs up two and will probably start this week and Carr backs up the other one and will probably start as well.) I'm playing against Newton in all three games. Although a small sample size, I believe this speaks to not only the amazing season Newton is having, but in drafting a QB in the first two rounds of any draft format. Although not a question, I would be interested to hear your thoughts on this.

Todd Voorhees (Chula Vista, CA)

NFL teams will average about 27 TD passes this year. So in a typical fantasy league, I think the average team is finishing with about 30 TDs. Many of the competing teams in your league will finish with over 30 TD passes without selecting a quarterback in the first three rounds. So if you are going to select one in rounds one or two, it should be a guy where you’re confident he has a chance to maybe put up over 40 touchdowns. The way the game has changed, with inflated stats, there will be quarterbacks with over 40 touchdowns every year now. Sounds simple enough. But if you to go back to late August and draft, the two quarterbacks you would consider in the first round would have been Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, and they both would have fizzled. Carson Palmer was coming off an ACL surgery. Cam Newton is an erratic passer in a conservative offense who had just lost his only good receiver. Blake Bortles is an unpolished youngster on a bad team. You would not have selected those guys.

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Question 2

Hey Ian, some of us had a discussion in Andy's "A Day of Football" column. I've been playing for 20 years & I was saying that today's game is such a timesuck. The game today with smartphones, RBBC, DraftKings EVERYWHERE, Sunday Ticket / RedZone, and ridiculous scoring systems just makes me pine for the days of yore, when you'd call in your lineup to an answering machine, watch whatever game was on locally, and compute scores out of Monday's USA Today. We were wondering what your thoughts are regarding today's game vs. the "days of yore"? I'll get over this gut-punch of a season (just like last year) and be devouring training camp news come July next year. Thanks for everything you do!

Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)

I haven’t taken to the one-day games. (I haven’t had the chance, since they’re not even legal in Washington state). But I like the drama of a four-month season that unfolds, with a draft and waiver moves. I like the dimension of picking up injured stars who might be healthy in a month and obtaining an obscure kicker a week early because he has a cherry matchup in a fortnight. I like standings, Toilet Bowls and wild-card spots. I like the dimension of playing not only your own game but having one eye on the pivotal other game, where you need the Bellevue Jive-Mongers to beat the Renton Rainiers to have a chance at the wild-card spot. You will not, however, hear me say a bad word about the RedZone channel. To be able to bounced around the league, sucking up key plays without ever watching a commercial is pretty sweet. I watch a ton of football, but it’s not until the playoffs that I usually get trapped into watching a few commercials (with these Thursday and Monday night games, I always use the tivo and then start them 30-60 minutes later). When the Super Bowl comes around and I watch the whole game in real time, it’s hard to get used to all the down time.

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Question 3

Is there anyway to list the teams that defenses have scored the most fantasy points against. Using any scoring system is fine.

Rob Shohet (Rye Brook, NY)

If you use the scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards, the Broncos, Jets and Seahawks have had the best run defenses so far. The Saints, Browns and Eagles have had the worst run defenses.

AVERAGE RUSHING PRODUCTION ALLOWED
Rk DefenseYardsTDRPoints
1.Denver80.648.1
2.NY Jets83.148.3
3.Seattle84.648.5
4.Arizona87.578.8
5.Pittsburgh89.369.0
6.Carolina90.649.1
7.Kansas City92.439.3
8.Cincinnati93.509.4
9.Tampa Bay94.579.5
10.New England96.579.7
11.Baltimore100.5010.1
12.Oakland101.7110.2
13.Jacksonville101.8610.2
14.Atlanta1031.2910.5
15.Buffalo106.7110.7
16.Dallas1081.0011.0
17.Houston110.7111.1
18.Tennessee110.7111.1
19.Minnesota113.5011.4
20.Detroit1121.2911.5
21.NY Giants114.7111.6
22.Green Bay117.7911.8
23.St. Louis118.5011.9
24.San Diego1211.0012.2
25.Indianapolis124.7912.5
26.Chicago126.5712.7
27.San Francisco1291.2913.1
28.Washington130.5713.1
29.Miami132.7113.3
30.Philadelphia134.6413.6
31.Cleveland135.7913.6
32.New Orleans138.8614.0

The Broncos and Seahawks are also in the top 3 against the pass, joined by the Texans. New Orleans, Pittsburgh and the Giants have allowed the most production thru the air.

AVERAGE PASSING PRODUCTION ALLOWED
Rk DefenseYardsTDPPoints
1.Denver2231.1422.4
2.Houston2291.6423.2
3.Seattle232.8623.3
4.Chicago2311.8623.4
5.Dallas2421.0724.3
6.Carolina2441.4324.7
7.Minnesota2461.5024.9
8.San Diego2501.4325.3
9.Green Bay2521.2925.4
10.Atlanta2521.2925.5
11.Tennessee2522.1425.6
12.New England2551.3625.7
13.Arizona2561.4325.8
14.Washington2551.8625.9
15.Baltimore2562.0025.9
16.Detroit2571.6426.0
17.NY Jets2591.7126.2
18.Tampa Bay2592.0026.2
19.St. Louis2611.2926.3
20.Kansas City2611.7126.4
21.Cincinnati2621.1426.4
22.Cleveland2642.0726.7
23.Buffalo2662.0026.9
24.San Francisco2751.3627.7
25.Philadelphia2752.1427.9
26.Jacksonville2761.7927.9
27.Indianapolis2792.0028.2
28.Oakland2801.5728.2
29.Miami2792.2128.3
30.New Orleans2902.7929.4
31.Pittsburgh2962.0030.0
32.NY Giants3172.0032.0

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Question 4

After my early season rant about RBs, I have to say thank you. Your rankings helped me select Woodhead and McFadden as backups when other owners looked at me funny. And somehow I am playing in our league's Fantasy Bowl this week! So any recommendations on RBs and WRs would be appreciated. 2 of McFadden, Woodhead, Murray, Starks, or Anderson. 3 of Decker, Landry, Ginn, Randle, or Moncrief. Thanks and Merry Christmas!

Jane Gayamat (Bellingham, WA)

The Cowboys are running the ball well and Buffalo’s defense has been strangely crappy all year, so I think McFadden is your top back. Definitely. If you’ve got Latavius Murray, I would probably use him in the No. 2 spot, considering how poorly San Diego has played the run. If your Murray is DeMarco Murray, then I would instead use Woodhead in that role. As for the wide receivers. Decker has been very productive and played well in the earlier game against New England. If it’s PPR, Landry catches a lot of ball. Randle is in the mix – more of a go-to guy with Beckham suspended. But tough to sit down Ted Ginn Jr., with him having caught 2 TDs three weeks in a row.

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Question 5

What are your thoughts on Kendall Gaskins and Donald Brown this week? Will they be the main runners this week for SD and SF?

David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)

Melvin Gordon is on injured reserve, and I believe they’ll just plug Brown into that spot. He might be BETTER than Gordon. So far he’s been put into that role twice, and both times he’s been a little better than what they were getting out of their rookie. Brown was good last week, and he was good earlier in the year, when they pulled Gordon for fumbling. Danny Woodhead will also be mixed in, however, getting maybe 30-40 percent of the playing time. Woodhead is great in the passing game, but they don’t seem to want for him to run for more than 10-20 yards on draws. Gaskins I don’t see as an option. If Shaun Draugh is out, I think it will be a committee.

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Question 6

Is the emergence of Tyler Lockett in recent weeks a trend indicating he is more involved in the offense and able to beat coverages, or a more a product of Russell Wilson being on fire and everyone benefits?

ROBERT TECCA (Buffalo, MN)

Both, I think. Wilson is certainly lighting it up right now, but Lockett brings value to the table. With his speed and elusiveness, he’s got a lot more big-play ability than Jermaine Kearse.

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Question 7

I'm in my Championship final, standard scoring. Floyd over Marshall? (Palmer is my QB). Also Hightower or Forte? Thanks for all your help this year. Merry Christmas!

BARRY ST PETER (Pittsfield, MA)

The guys look pretty comparable to me. In both cases, I have them in different orders based on what scoring system you’re using. For standard, it’s Floyd and Hightower. With Hightower, he moves well below Forte if Brees isn’t starting. With Floyd, you can look at risk assessment. If you want to diversify your portfolio, it’s not a big downgrade to Marshall. I respect the work Malcolm Butler is doing in New England. In earlier meeting, Marshall caught only 4 passes, which is a really low total for him. He did, however, drop a touchdown in that game (if he catches that one, he’s at 5 receptions for over 80 yards and a touchdown, and nothing wrong with that kind of production).

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Question 8

Hey Ian, I have some decisions to make in the championship this week. It's a PPR league with a superflex, QBs receive 4 points per TD and the Qbs yards per point is slightly deflated when compared to standard. I have been rolling with Eli and Brees in my QB and Flex spot most of the year. However with the question marks surrounding them should I potentially bench one of them in favor of Crabtree? The raiders playing thursday makes this tough. Alternatively, I am starting one of Denard/Mcfadden with DJ at RB and could use one of them or can start Crabtree in one of the 3 WR spots with (Decker, Cooks/Floyd) and use the 4th in the flex if brees in inactive. What are your thoughts on this murky situation?

John Mortensen (Long Beach, NY)

Brees says he will play. If he’s starting on Sunday, you definitely want him in there. So for now, I would hold that spot for him. If, come Sunday, he’s inactive, then you plug in somebody else at that time.

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Question 9

todd gurley or calvin johnson? standard scoring and already going with donte freeman, julio jones, martavis bryant and maclin.

DAVID ENGBERG (Saint Augusta, MN)

Johnson has been really down recently, catching only 1 pass in back-to-back games. He’s at home against a lesser opponent, so I guess he’s overdue for a bounce-back game. But my projections indicate Gurley, operating as both a runner and pass catcher, makes more sense. The Rams usually play the Seahawks tough.

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Question 10

Long time subscriber and once again you've brought me deep into the fantasy season. Of course, already purchased the Weekly, but with Brees' injury, need to get this question in to you now. .5 PPR title game and the lineup right now looks like Palmer over Brady & Stafford (barely), AP & David Johnson, Julio and Cooks, Decker Flexed, B.Watson TE. But the Brees injury is HUGE. I know back in week 3 Cooks was productive with McCown at QB (7-8-79 w the game winning failed 'J.Norman' end zone look) and is on fire lately, but the Coleman/Snead emergence sis still worrisome. What are your thoughts about the 2 scenarios, Brees playing hurt & McCown replacing him - the options to shake up the lineup would be - T.Hightower, Lockett, C.Michael. So really, need to pick 2 guys out of Cooks, Decker, Hightower, Lockett and C.Michael. Thanks for a great year.

Russ D (Jamison, PA)

If Brees sits, it won’t be McCown. He would be Matt Flynn or Garrett Grayson. Big downgrade, I think. If Brees is out, you probably don’t use Cooks. I like what Decker has done, and he was very productive in the earlier game against New England. I think he’s in there. I’m thinking it’s probably Christine Michael. Rams have tended to play Seattle tough, but their run defense has been pretty awful for the last month and a half. Seahawks, meanwhile, have their ground game going. So I like the potential of Michael to run for 80-plus. That said, I don’t have the half-point PPR rankings in front of me, and I don’t have a great feel for what kind of players are good in that format. That is, do you play for the guys who are catching 3-4 passes every week? Like Danny Woodhead and James White. Michael isn’t much of a pass catcher.

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Question 11

Thanks for all the advice during the season and my team ending up in the Finals this weekend. But of course a delimma at RB since my core RBs of McCoy, Ingram, D.Lewis all going down. So any advice of a choice of 2 RB's between Ivory, D.Robinson, J.White, A.Blue and D.Brown...from reading the Index gut fill is D.Robinson if healthy and either A.Blue/J.White. Ivory tempting but he hasnt done much the past several weeks with Powell back. Then onto the fun WR's where Im tempted to bench J.Jones and go for 3 WRs with one playing a flex and playing Baldwin, Hurns, T.Ginn, Jr with the matchups. But if you played J.Jones who would you bench- my best guess is T.Ginn, Jr and maybe Hurns...but there matchups are so tempting and J.Jones even being a star has a bad matchup. thoughts?

PAUL STUTZMAN (Portland, OR)

As poorly as the Saints are playing, I think you have to use Hurns. And as well as Doug Baldwin is playing, I think he has to be in there. So I think it comes down to Julio and Ginn. If it’s a TD-only format, it’s tough to sit down a guy who’s caught 2 TDs three weeks in a row; I would think it would have to be Ginn. But if the scoring is built more around catches and yards, then I think you have to leave Julio Jones in there. It’s been rare for him to catch fewer than 7 passes this year. With the running backs, if you’re playing for PPR and receiving production, I think you can think about James Whites, but I find myself gravitating to Alfred Blue after that nice game last week.

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Question 12

A couple of questions, Ian. I have been using Hill or Abdullah as my RB but also have Michael in Seattle. Hill is boom or bust and he's at Denver so I agree that he is not the best option. Abdullah is home against a lousy 49er run defense and Michael is also home against a poor Ram rushing defense. Abdullah looked good last week but Michael is like the new toy I want to take out of the box.You have them ranked right next to each other so, do I flip a coin? Secondly, you have Lafell ranked way down the WR list. I have been starting Snead but if Brees is a no-go I'm thinking Lafell. My other receiver choice is McDonald who didn't look good last week but is going against a Detroit defense that has been soft against TEs. Thanks for your help!

david hogshire (Plymouth, MN)

With the running backs, I have no confidence in Jeremy Hill. He’s been sluggish and slow, and he’s not involved in the passing game. Going up against the league’s best run defense, he’s not even a consideration. I think Abdullah and Michael are comparable; I have Abdullah a little higher, given how painfully awful San Francisco has been against the run. With the pass catchers, Vance McDonald isn’t a consideration; he didn’t play well enough last week, causing a couple of interceptions with drops (he might not even be the best tight end on his own team). With LaFell, I worry that he’ll have Darrell Revis on him and not be a factor at all. You may need to re-explore the waiver wire (is Dwayne Harris available?).

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Question 13

Happy Holidays! I have been a loyal subscriber for 10+ years. I doubt you'll want to deal with this long e-mail, but I am in the championship game of a 14 team SCORING ONLY league (4 pts TD passes, 6 pts for TDs and double points for any scores over 50 yards). Anyway, I have lineup dilemmas all over the place based on my current roster, injuries (Drew Brees), suspensions (Beckham) and available players on the waiver wire. QB - Do I start Manning or Tannehill, or do I pickup and start Bridgewater, Manziel or Mallett? I start 2 RBs, 2 WRs and 1 Flex: RB's - C. West and D. Johnson are no-brainers but I'm torn at Flex with Hightower, Artis-Payne or S. Ware (Ware and West could both score vs. the Browns) WRs - Cooks, Fitzgerald, Crabtree and E. Sanders (pick 2) TE - Do I stick with Barnidge, or should I pick up and start Rudolph, Tye or Ebron? Thank you very much for taking the time to help me out!

EDWARD BECKER (Brookeville, MD)

I don’t have anything new to add on these guys right now. You’re kind of stuck at quarterback. I don’t like any of those guys. I suppose I would just start Manning, and hope for the best. With the running backs, I like the look of Cameron Artis-Payne playing at Atlanta; it’s either him, or the conservative double-down of the two KC backs against the Browns. With the wide receivers, key is whether Drew Brees is playing (and healthy enough to play well). If Brees is out there, then Cooks is your top guy. If Brees is out, then I think you start looking at other guys. Barnidge has played well enough at tight end that I would probably just leave him in there. I have Ebron and Rudolph higher on my board, but not by enough to merit a change.

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