Every year I do one of these playoff fantasy leagues where you pick your entire roster before the playoffs start. I should point out up front that my success in these things has been marginal. I came in 3rd out of 12 teams in one of them last year, which was my best finish. So take these picks with a grain of salt.
Here, though, are some of the assumptions and predictions I'm making about this year's postseason field, and how I've accordingly assembled my roster. We are allowed 14 players, and a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs/TEs, 1 PK, and 1 Team D.
The AFC is wide open. I don't know who's going to win Kansas City-Houston or Cincinnati-Pittsburgh. What I do know is that two very good defenses are playing in that first game, and there's really only one offensive star (DeAndre Hopkins). So I have nobody on either team on my roster. Whatever happens in that game, one will lose this week and the other will probably lose next week.
Pittsburgh-Cincinnati is trickier, but I'm giving the slight edge to Pittsburgh. I don't think DeAngelo Williams being out for Pittsburgh is as big a deal as Andy Dalton being out for Cincinnati. Nothing against AJ McCarron, but I don't think the Bengals will score quite as much with him in the lineup, and I think Pittsburgh will manage by sticking to the pass.
I currently have both A.J. Green and Antonio Brown on my roster, and here's why. They're the best two wideouts playing this weekend (along with Hopkins, who I'm avoiding), capable of racking up plenty of points in this game whether their team wins or loses. So I'll get good points from them here, and one of them will definitely be playing next week. I will have a dead spot on my roster next week, but it's a given than I'm going to have at least one. Unless I simply avoid everyone in the wildcard round, but I think you have to get SOME Week 18 points to win. And these guys will both get a lot of points.
If I ditch one of these guys, it will be Green. I think the Steelers have a chance to go on a run, and the prospect of getting three to four weeks out of Brown in a PPR league is exciting.
New England and Denver will probably meet in the AFC Championship game, but I'm not really sure who will win. Right now I have Edelman, Gronkowski and C.J. Anderson on my roster. I may replace Anderson with James White; it's possible. BTW, wide receivers and tight ends are lumped together, so I don't have to carry a tight end. But Gronk is certainly one of the top receivers in the postseason, and could play three games.
Three NFC teams can make it. No surprise, I don't see Green Bay, Minnesota or Washington getting very far. Two will get bounced this week, and the other will get rolled in Arizona next week. In my opinion. The only guy I have from any of these three teams on my roster is Jordan Reed. I think Washington wins this week, and two games of the heavily targeted Reed would be fine. Even one game might be serviceable.
Arizona is fortunate that it will only have to beat one from Carolina and Seattle. The Panthers and Seahawks will likely have to beat both of the other two to get to the Super Bowl. Possible, but quite challenging. With the Panthers, the only ones on my roster are Newton and Stewart. You've got to have running backs, and Stewart has a decent shot to still be playing in the Super Bowl -- more than anyone but Marshawn Lynch (who I also have) and David Johnson (who I also have).
I currently have all three quarterbacks and all three starting running backs from Arizona, Seattle and Carolina. If I leave Seattle guys out, I have nobody going in Week 18. If I leave Arizona or Carolina guys out, I could end up with nobody going in the Super Bowl. One strategy is to go all in one of the teams, and maybe I'll do that. Or two of the teams. But I'm trying to balance my roster so that I'll have some starters in Week 18 (Seattle, and Antonio and A.J.), plenty in Week 19, and probably Week 20, too. And then I'll have key guys from whichever of the three makes the Super Bowl, plus either Antonio or a couple of Patriots receivers. Unless Denver wins.
I'm punting on Kicker and Defense. The guy that won the league I was in last year did this, and it makes sense for several reasons. Defense scoring only includes sacks, turnovers, and touchdowns. There might be 3-4 defensive touchdowns in the entire postseason, and there's no way to assume they'll come from teams that make lengthy runs. Kansas City and Washington had two of the top 4 teams in this regard in the regular season, and I don't know that either team will be playing next week.
So to me, the odds of selecting the right fantasy defense on a team that both advances and maybe scores a touchdown are slim. Seattle, Carolina and Arizona are certainly the favorites, but the point likelihood from just one or even two games of those defenses looks slim -- less, certainly, than either A.J. Green or Antonio Brown in a PPR league. So to carry a defense, I have to leave off a wideout who could get me 20 points in a week. A defense won't beat that unless it plays 2-3 weeks. Probably.
Similar philosophy on kickers. I could carry Hauschka, Gano or Gostkowski, but I think I'm probably looking at 8-9 points a week, max, and they'd need to play multiple weeks to really pay off on the roster. And I don't feel strongly enough about any of them. Gostkowski is the one I might carry. With Hauschka, maybe you get four weeks, but I don't feel strongly enough about Seattle. Catanzaro is kind of slumping, so he worries me for a different reason.
So here's the roster I have today. I've still got 30 hours or so to change it, so let me know where you think I've gone wrong.
Cam Newton
Carson Palmer
Russell Wilson
Jonathan Stewart
David Johnson
Marshawn Lynch
C.J. Anderson
Doug Baldwin
Larry Fitzgerald
Antonio Brown
A.J. Green
Julian Edelman
Rob Gronkowski
Jordan Reed
11 Reader Comments:
BEN HOGEVOLL
ANDY RICHARDSON
BEN HOGEVOLL
ANDY RICHARDSON
BEN HOGEVOLL
NICK FRITZ
Keep up the good work guys!
Matt Mumford
I like the rest of your lineup. I think NewEngland might be too banged up.
PHIL KEIL
NICK FRITZ
ANDY RICHARDSON
ANDY RICHARDSON