Ian Allan

January 15, 2016

Playoff redrafter

Stacking the board for the remaining 3 weeks of the postseason

The injuries are shaking out for the playoff games. There are key guys in each game, but we can see where they are headed.

Pittsburgh has ruled out Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams, but Ben Roethlisberger seems to be on track to play.

New England has listed a whole bunch of guys as questionable, but Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman should be ready to go.

Kansas City calls Jeremy Maclin questionable, but he didn’t practice all week. He almost certainly isn’t playing.

Marshawn Lynch says he’s playing for Seattle.

Carolina’s Ted Ginn Jr. is questionable, but Ron Riveria indicates Ginn should be fine. They’ll also have Jonathan Stewart.

Nothing too notable with Arizona, Green Bay or Denver.

With an eye on those injuries, we can re-stack the overall board. That is, not based on what will happen this week, but with overall production for the remaining seven games of the season.

With this kind of exercise, best to start with how many games each team will play.

In my eyes, the Patriots and Broncos have the best chance of playing in three games. Not that those teams are the best, but there seems to be just two Super Bowl contenders (to get there) on the AFC side. In the NFC, the remaining road teams are a lot stronger, Seattle and Green Bay, making it harder for Carolina and Arizona to get there.

I’ve got the remaining projected games like this …

PROJECTED REMAINING GAMES
Team	Div	Conf	S.B.	Total
New England	1	77%	52%	2.29
Denver	1	85%	40%	2.25
Arizona	1	80%	34%	2.14
Carolina	1	55%	33%	1.88
Seattle	1	45%	26%	1.71
Kansas City	1	23%	5%	1.28
Green Bay	1	20%	7%	1.27
Pittsburgh	1	15%	3%	1.18

We can then take those projected games, multiply them by approximate production (per game) and get an order of how the players should fall, with expected production in the remaining three weeks.

When choosing your team, it probably makes sense to take more of a binary approach. That is, make a bold assumption (about which team will win it) and then proceed according, stockpiling players from that team. But if you want to “set the value”, so to speak, with the players weighted appropriately, it makes sense to go with a more analytical approach.

And my estimates are they should be valued in this kind of order:

At quarterback, Tom Brady and Cam Newton seem to be the top two, with Carson Palmer not far back.

REMAINING PLAYER PRODUCTION (Weeks 19-21) QUARTERBACKS
Rk	Tm	Player	Pass	Run	TDP	TDs	F Pts
1.	NE	Tom Brady	623	7	4.76	.14	51.8
2.	CAR	Cam Newton	456	87	3.26	.80	49.3
3.	ARI	Carson Palmer	572	7	4.13	.06	46.2
4.	SEA	Russell Wilson	449	55	3.13	.20	41.7
5.	DEN	Peyton Manning	546	1	3.38	.01	40.9
6.	GB	Aaron Rodgers	327	22	2.20	.11	28.0
7.	KC	Alex Smith	266	40	1.52	.16	24.4
8.	PIT	Ben Roethlisberger	278	2	1.45	.01	19.9
9.	DEN	Brock Osweiler	28	3	.17	.02	2.5
10.	NE	Jimmy Garoppolo	6	0	.05	.00	.5
11.	ARI	Drew Stanton	6	0	.04	.00	.5
12.	PIT	Landry Jones	6	0	.03	.00	.4
13.	CAR	Derek Anderson	5	0	.03	.00	.4
14.	SEA	Tarvaris Jackson	5	0	.03	.00	.4
15.	GB	Scott Tolzien	3	0	.02	.00	.3
16.	KC	Chase Daniel	3	0	.02	.00	.2

At running back, David Johnson is No. 1, and with a bigger spread over the rest of the players at his position than with any of the other top players (including Rob Gronkowski).

REMAINING PLAYER PRODUCTION (Weeks 19-21) RUNNING BACKS
Rk	Tm	Player	Rec	Run	TD	F Pts
1.	ARI	David Johnson	52	162	1.70	31.7
2.	DEN	C.J. Anderson	28	135	1.02	22.4
3.	CAR	Jonathan Stewart	16	142	.74	20.2
4.	DEN	Ronnie Hillman	23	122	.86	19.6
5.	SEA	Marshawn Lynch	23	110	.58	16.8
6.	NE	Steven Jackson	19	92	.80	15.8
7.	NE	James White	76	18	.64	13.2
8.	NE	Brandon Bolden	25	64	.57	12.4
9.	PIT	Fitzgerald Toussaint	29	60	.55	12.2
10.	GB	James Starks	36	45	.44	10.7
11.	KC	Spencer Ware	5	63	.49	9.8
12.	GB	Eddie Lacy	20	54	.37	9.6
13.	KC	Charcandrick West	19	49	.42	9.3
14.	CAR	Mike Tolbert	18	26	.58	8.0
15.	ARI	Andre Ellington	23	33	.39	8.0
16.	PIT	Jordan Todman	8	29	.24	5.2
17.	SEA	Fred Jackson	23	12	.17	4.5
18.	ARI	Kerwynn Williams	1	24	.22	3.8
19.	SEA	Christine Michael	1	14	.06	1.8
20.	PIT	DeAngelo Williams	3	10	.08	1.8
21.	GB	John Kuhn	3	4	.12	1.5
22.	DEN	Juwan Thompson	1	8	.06	1.3
23.	PIT	Will Johnson	3	3	.09	1.1
24.	ARI	Chris Johnson	0	7	.06	1.1
25.	KC	Anthony Sherman	5	1	.06	1.0
26.	ARI	Stepfan Taylor	2	1	.02	.5
27.	CAR	Cameron Artis-Payne	0	3	.02	.4
28.	SEA	Derrick Coleman	3	0	.01	.4
29.	KC	Knile Davis	1	0	.04	.4
30.	SEA	Will Tukuafu	1	1	.02	.3
31.	GB	John Crockett	1	1	.01	.2
32.	GB	Aaron Ripkowski	1	1	.01	.2

With the tight ends, Rob Gronkowski is the clear No. 1, and Greg Olsen is the equally undisputed No. 2.

REMAINING PLAYER PRODUCTION (Weeks 19-21) TIGHT ENDS
Rk	Tm	Player	Rec	TD	F Pts
1.	NE	Rob Gronkowski	164	1.49	25.3
2.	CAR	Greg Olsen	129	.92	18.4
3.	KC	Travis Kelce	81	.49	11.0
4.	DEN	Owen Daniels	62	.45	8.9
5.	GB	Richard Rodgers	46	.53	7.8
6.	PIT	Heath Miller	51	.27	6.7
7.	ARI	Darren Fells	40	.29	5.8
8.	SEA	Luke Willson	36	.35	5.7
9.	SEA	Cooper Helfet	32	.28	4.9
10.	DEN	Virgil Green	23	.24	3.7
11.	ARI	Jermaine Gresham	23	.17	3.3
12.	NE	Scott Chandler	13	.24	2.7
13.	CAR	Ed Dickson	14	.13	2.2
14.	KC	Demetrius Harris	11	.14	1.9
15.	GB	Justin Perillo	7	.07	1.1
16.	PIT	Jesse James	5	.06	.8
17.	ARI	Troy Niklas	6	.04	.8
18.	DEN	Vernon Davis	6	.03	.8

With the wide receivers, not much separation at the top. It comes down to games played, so I’ve got six players from the Broncos, Patriots and Cardinals as the players projected to produce over 18 fantasy points (in the three weeks).

Note on this chart that the touchdowns includes all touchdowns – catch, run and return. That contributes to Tyler Lockett being in the top 10.

REMAINING PLAYER PRODUCTION (Weeks 19-21) WIDE RECEIVERS
Rk	Tm	Player	Rec	Run	TD	F Pts
1.	DEN	Demaryius Thomas	163	0	.98	22.2
2.	DEN	Emmanuel Sanders	158	3	.96	21.8
3.	NE	Julian Edelman	145	2	1.06	21.0
4.	ARI	Michael Floyd	139	0	1.04	20.1
5.	ARI	Larry Fitzgerald	133	0	1.00	19.3
6.	ARI	John Brown	127	2	.92	18.5
7.	SEA	Doug Baldwin	113	1	.79	16.2
8.	SEA	Tyler Lockett	104	3	.85	15.8
9.	SEA	Jermaine Kearse	104	1	.66	14.5
10.	CAR	Ted Ginn Jr.	97	3	.72	14.3
11.	GB	Randall Cobb	79	14	.52	12.4
12.	NE	Danny Amendola	84	0	.57	11.8
13.	NE	Brandon LaFell	76	0	.48	10.4
14.	GB	James Jones	76	0	.44	10.3
15.	PIT	Martavis Bryant	74	2	.39	9.9
16.	CAR	Philly Brown	64	3	.43	9.3
17.	DEN	Jordan Norwood	68	0	.38	9.1
18.	PIT	Markus Wheaton	68	0	.35	8.9
19.	CAR	Devin Funchess	61	0	.46	8.9
20.	CAR	Jerricho Cotchery	57	0	.33	7.7
21.	KC	Albert Wilson	48	0	.25	6.3
22.	KC	Chris Conley	48	0	.24	6.3
23.	GB	Jared Abbrederis	46	0	.24	6.1
24.	PIT	Darrius Heyward-Bey	34	0	.18	4.5
25.	NE	Keshawn Martin	25	0	.14	3.4
26.	DEN	Bennie Fowler	23	0	.10	2.9
27.	ARI	J.J. Nelson	17	0	.13	2.5
28.	KC	Frankie Hammond	16	0	.10	2.2
29.	KC	Jeremy Maclin	16	0	.09	2.1
30.	PIT	Antonio Brown	13	0	.07	1.8
31.	ARI	Jaron Brown	14	0	.04	1.6
32.	GB	Jeff Janis	10	0	.07	1.4

Last but certainly not least, I’ve got the eight kickers. Stephen Gostkowski No. 1.

REMAINING PLAYER PRODUCTION (Weeks 19-21) KICKERS
Rk	Tm	Player	Points
1.	NE	Stephen Gostkowski	18.8
2.	DEN	Brandon McManus	17.3
3.	ARI	Chandler Catanzaro	17.1
4.	CAR	Graham Gano	15.2
5.	SEA	Steven Hauschka	12.0
6.	GB	Mason Crosby	8.1
7.	KC	Cairo Santos	8.1
8.	PIT	Chris Boswell	7.3

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