Normally we send out our game previews on Wednesday morning. With there being just four teams left, there’s not really enough meat there to merit putting together a mini-publication. I will, however, post a similar preview for each of the remaining teams, posting them separately. I’ll start with Arizona.
(These won’t include defenses, special teams and kickers, which will be posted as positional items.)
ARIZONA CARDINALS:
I don’t believe the Cardinals will win this game. They’re on the road, and Carolina is really good. Arizona, I think, is the least likely team to win this week. But the Cardinals might still put up average numbers. Probably better than one of the AFC teams. Arizona has a high-powered offense, while Carolina does have some cracks defensively. The Saints and Giants both put up 35-plus points against Carolina late in the year, and the Seahawks really moved it well against them in the second half on Sunday. Arizona’s offense has scored 54 touchdowns, averaging 3 in its last 10 games. Carolina’s defense has allowed 35, or just over 2 per game. So about 2-3 TDs in the target area, and I’d say 3 is probably a little more likely than 2. … Carson Palmer played poorly in Week 17 against Seattle, and was off again against the Packers. His overall numbers were fine – 349 yards and 3 TDs – but he threw 2 interceptions and missed too many throws. He had another potential interception in the fourth that was dropped; if that one was held, Palmer easily could have ended that game with about 240 yards and 1 TD. He wasn’t very good. But he’s got a decent chance of getting things turned around here. The Panthers haven’t been very good against the pass recently. Their second and third corners, Bene Benwikere and Charles Tillman, are both out for the year, so it’s really a patchwork secondary back there. Carolina has allowed over 300 passing yards three weeks in a row. Arizona, on the other hand, has the league’s deepest group of wide receivers, so there should be plenty of opportunities for big plays downfield. Russell Wilson threw for 366 yards and 3 TDs against this defense last week; he would have gone over 400 if he hadn’t missed Doug Baldwin on what could have been a long touchdown. Eli Manning and Drew Brees in the not-too-distant past combined for 7 TDs against this defense. Earlier in the year, Aaron Rodgers passed for 369 yards and 4 TDs at Carolina after the Packers fell way behind. So I like Palmer in this game. So far he’s averaged 301 passing yards, with 38 TDs. I expect he’ll throw a couple of touchdowns, and he might even get up to 3. And I would say he’s about as likely as any of the other three remaining quarterbacks to throw for 300-plus yards. Palmer isn’t a factor as a runner; he’s run for only 10 yards in his last 16 games, and he’s run for only 1 TD in the last three years. … I think the matchup looks fine for Arizona’s wide receivers. I am putting Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown higher than you might think. These guys are good players, and Carolina has the injury issues with its secondary (with Tillman and Benwikere out). Josh Norman is about as good as any cover corner in the league, of course, but he’s only one guy. And I’m not going to worry too much about Norman taking away Fitzgerald or Floyd. I don’t believe they’ll assign him to any one player. In the Seattle game, Norman didn’t stick with Doug Baldwin exclusively, and Baldwin definitely has been Seattle’s No. 1 receiver (by a mile), while there’s a lot more parity with Arizona’s guys. I see these three as pretty comparable. I’m ranking Fitzgerald highest. He’s a future Hall of Famer, and he might have some ability to elevate his game when there’s more on the line. He certainly came up big last week, and he’s scored 3 weeks in a row. Floyd tends to get a few more looks in the red zone. He’s caught 7 TDs in his last 10 games – 2 more than Brown and 3 more than Fitzgerald. But they're pretty comparable. If you look at their numbers in their last 10 games, they’ve all averaged 72-78 yards per game. Earlier I concluded that Palmer will pass for about 290 yards and 2 TDs, and those guys are eating from that pie. … I have no real interest in the tight ends, Darren Fells and Jermaine Gresham. They’re blockers first, and they simply don’t get many looks. Fells has averaged 19 yards in his last 10 games, with 1 TD. Gresham has averaged 17 yards in his last 10, with 1 TD. Of the team’s last 11 touchdown passes, none have gone to tight ends. … With the running game, it should be mostly David Johnson. They had Andre Ellington out there for just a few plays against the Packers; he’s run for 2-3 yards in each of his last three games. Ellington has some receiving ability, but he hasn’t had more than 7 receiving yards in any of his last four. He’s just not a big part of the offense right now. It’s Johnson’s gig, and he’s been pretty special. Since he became their starter, he’s averaged 80 rushing and 43 receiving yards in six games, with 5 TDs. Like Matt Forte, Johnson is a tall back, so when he builds up a head of steam, he’s capable of long gainers – as both a runner and receiver. They’ll definitely get him the ball some on pass plays. Since they made him their starter, he’s had over 20 receiving yards in six straight games. Here he’s working against a really good run defense; Carolina has that great pair of tackles inside, and only three teams allowed fewer rushing yards in the regular season. In their last 10 games, Carolina has allowed an average of 70 rushing yards, while Arizona has averaged 108. So we’re thinking about 85 yards in this game (for the team). That’s not a great total, but with the way Arizona uses Johnson (heavily as a runner and also in the passing game) he looks like the clear favorite to finish with the most total yards of all running backs playing this weekend. Touchdowns in this game should tend to come through the air. Carolina in its last 10 has allowed over three times as many touchdowns on passes, while Arizona’s offense has been similar. Combined, you’re looking at 39 TD passes versus 13 TD runs in the last 20 combined games of these two sides. If you want to divide that out, it translates to 1.95 TD passes and .65 TD runs, which is about what to expect from this game. Not a great TD run situation, but there are no can’t-miss backs this week. And keep in mind that Johnson isn’t only running but also catching. He caught 4 TDs in the regular season.
Boiling it down to numbers, I have the Cardinals in this order (using standard scoring):
| ARIZONA PLAYERS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pass | Rec | Run | Tot Yd | TDP | TD | Pts |
| QB | Carson Palmer | 289 | 0 | 2 | 291 | 1.98 | .02 | 22.7 |
| RB | David Johnson | 0 | 29 | 68 | 97 | .00 | .69 | 13.8 |
| WR | Larry Fitzgerald | 0 | 72 | 0 | 72 | .00 | .49 | 10.2 |
| WR | Michael Floyd | 0 | 69 | 0 | 69 | .00 | .52 | 10.0 |
| WR | John Brown | 0 | 67 | 2 | 69 | .00 | .46 | 9.7 |
| RB | Andre Ellington | 0 | 9 | 13 | 22 | .00 | .13 | 2.9 |
| TE | Darren Fells | 0 | 20 | 0 | 20 | .00 | .12 | 2.8 |
| TE | Jermaine Gresham | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12 | .00 | .08 | 1.6 |
| WR | J.J. Nelson | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | .00 | .05 | 0.9 |
| TE | Troy Niklas | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | .00 | .02 | 0.4 |
| WR | Jaron Brown | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | .00 | .02 | 0.4 |
| QB | Drew Stanton | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .02 | .00 | 0.2 |
| RB | Stepfan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .00 | .01 | 0.2 |
| WR | Brittan Golden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .00 | .01 | 0.1 |
| RB | Kerwynn Williams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .00 | 0.0 |
| QB | Matt Barkley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .00 | 0.0 |
| RB | Chris Johnson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .00 | 0.0 |

