Fantasy Index

Fantasy Index Weekly

Carolina Panthers

Can Arizona slow down Cam Newton with the blitz?

Normally we send out our game previews on Wednesday morning. With there being just four teams left, there’s not really enough meat there to merit putting together a publication, so I’m just posting the previews of each of the four offenses as stand-alone items. Arizona went up earlier in the day. Denver and New England will be posted tomorrow.

CAROLINA PANTHERS:

The Panthers look awfully solid. They led the league in scoring, and they’re playing their best ball right now. The put up 31 points in record time Sunday, and they did it against a defense that’s allowed the fewest points in the league four years in a row. Other than one hiccup game at Atlanta, they’ve scored over 30 points in each of their last seven games. This offense has scored 38 touchdowns in its last 10 games – almost 4 per week. Only twice in its last 13 has Carolina failed to score 3 TDs, and in most of those games (7 of 13) it’s scored at least 4. Arizona’s defense, on the other hand, has been pretty solid. It’s allowed only 35 TDs in 17 games (just over 2 per week). But it’s more of a good unit, rather than a great one. They’ve lost a couple of key contributors in recent weeks. Tyrann Mathieu was making a lot of plays for them in the secondary, and he’s gone. And now they’ve also lost Alex Okafor, who was one of their better linebackers; he led them in sacks last year. With the game being in Charlotte, I’m expecting the Panthers will keep it rolling, probably scoring 3-4 TDs. If you want to order the four teams by how many points they’re going to score on Sunday, the easiest decision is to start by putting the Panthers at No. 1. I’m more comfortable saying they’ll outscore the other three, than by committing to any of the other three finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th. … I don’t much care for Cam Newton, with the ridiculous dances after each first down, the chewing gum, the prayer deal before the first snap, touchdown celebrations that last way too long, and the Gatorade head towel whatever. I guess I have aged into being an Old School guy. But I will concede he’s a hell of a player right now. Great runner, and he’s gotten way better as a passer. In the past, he sailed a lot more of his passes; you could count on some errant throws and poor decisions in each game. He was remarkably ineffective, for example, in the red zone. He threw only 19, 24 and 18 touchdowns in his three previous seasons; he moved that up to 35 touchdowns this year, versus just 10 interceptions. So he’s really progressed. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in seven of his last 11 games, with three 5-TD games in there. Arizona’s defense, meanwhile, hasn’t done a great job of stopping quarterbacks; it’s allowed 26 TD passes in 17 weeks, which is a middle-of-the-pack number. If you want to go straight off the numbers, Arizona is allowing 248 passing yards per game, while Carolina is averaging 237. So about 243 passing yards, with a combined 62 TDs in 34 games (1.82 per game). But Arizona seems to have dipped a little recently, while Newton has been coming on. If the Cardinals are to have much success against Newton at all, I think, it will be by throwing more pressure at him – force him to make decisions quicker. Seattle didn’t put him under enough pressure, and Newton was able to patiently stand back there and find the right guys, completing 73 percent. Arizona in the regular season was one of the most blitz-heavy teams, contributing to them allowing a lower completion percentage than the Seahawks. Seattle finished the season at 61 percent, which was just outside the top 10. Newton played three teams from the top 10 in the regular season, and as luck would have it, those were his three of his four lowest percentage games of the season – 49 percent against Houston, 46 percent against the Colts and 50 percent against the Packers. So there’s that. But Newton still threw 2-3 TDs in all of those games, and he’s still the best power-running quarterback in NFL history. He’s averaging 38 rushing yards, and he’s scored 10 of the team’s 21 rushing touchdowns. In typical fantasy formats, that pass-run combo moves Newton to the top of the pile this week. … Jonathan Stewart is playing really nice ball right now. He’s running with power, and he’s benefitting from Cam Newton scaring the heck out of opponents (they have to respect Newton as both a runner and passer). Stewart also has fresh legs, after sitting out the final three regular-season games. He’s averaged 88 rushing yards in his last 10 games, with 9 TDs. Arizona ranked 6th against the run in the regular season, but it’s not a shutdown group. They’ve given up 145 and 135 rushing yards in their last two games. And Carolina is awfully tough to defend, with that pass-run-quarterback trifecta. Makes sense to project Stewart a little lower than usual, but he’s definitely in the mix to be the top rusher of the week. And note that they’re using Stewart as a goal-line runner now more than in the past. Newton has a 10-8 edge in rushing touchdowns, but in the last 10 games that they’ve both played, it’s 8-5 in favor of Stewart. On the downside, note that Stewart isn’t much of a factor as a pass catcher. He’s averaged only 7 receiving yards, with 1 TD in 14 games. … Carolina uses a bunch of wide receivers. Ted Ginn Jr. and Philly Brown are the starters, Jerricho Cotchery plays plenty as the No. 3, and they’ll also rotate in their big rookie, Devin Funchess. Ginn had that one great streak late in the year, where he went for 80-plus yards and 2 TDs in three straight games. But Ginn otherwise has averaged only 35 yards in 13 games, with 4 TDs. Arizona typically assigns Patrick Peterson to cover other teams' No. 1 receivers, and it logically appears that he’ll cover Ginn. If it plays out that way, Newton won’t throw that way often. With Richard Sherman on him last week, Ginn didn’t even catch a pass, while Peterson last week completely shut out James Jones. Brown is the same kind of receiver – a small, speedy guy who maybe hits a big play but really can’t be counted on for anything. He’s averaging 31 yards thus far, with 4 TDs in 15 games. Cotchery is better than those guys on slant routes, and he’s been coming on some. He’s averaged 40 yards in his last 10 games, albeit with just 2 TDs. Funchess is the biggest of those receivers, and he’ll probably be better than all of those guys in 2016. But for now, he’s an unpolished rookie he’s going to play the least of all of them. Against this defense, which might blitz a bunch, they need to have receivers who know what they’re doing – making adjustments at the line and whatnot. Funchess had a couple of decent games late in the year, when either Ginn or Brown were sitting out, but in his last 10 games in which the other receivers were healthy, Funchess has averaged 24 receiving yards, with 2 TDs. Combined these guys are averaging 7 rushing yards; there will be an end-around or two. But it’s a Grab Bag with those receivers, and we’re not excited about any of them. … Greg Olsen is a solid tight end. There’s a certain rapport between him and Newton. They combined on the real nice touchdown last week. Olsen is averaging 70 yards per game, which is easily 2nd-best among the tight ends playing this week. But unlike the guy in New England, Olsen isn’t the designated go-to option in the red zone. Olsen has caught only 8 of Newton’s 36 TD passes. He’s catching about 1 of every 4-5 touchdowns they throw. With the Patriots, Gronk has caught 13 of 35 when he’s been playing, which is better than 1 out of every 3. Olsen is facing a defense that hasn’t been particularly tight end friendly. Arizona has allowed 26 TD passes, but only 6 have gone to tight ends. Whatever. We’re figuring Newton throws about 2 TDs in this game. That gives Olsen about a 50 percent chance of catching a touchdown. … Touching base on the lesser lights. Mike Tolbert averaged 16 rushing and 9 receiving yards in the regular season. He’s scored 7 percent of their offensive touchdowns, and they’ll probably score 3-4 TDs in this game, so there’s at least a chance he’ll get a touchdown (if they played this game 5-6 times, he’d probably get a touchdown somewhere along the line). Fozzy Whittaker suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 16, so we’re expecting it will be Cameron Artis-Payne as their No. 2 tailback proper. He’ll probably get a couple of carries. Artis-Payne fumbled early against Seattle but they didn’t bench him; he finished with 4 touches and 8 total yards.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (vs. Arizona)
PosPlayerPassRecRunTotalTD PTDPoints
QBCam Newton2380412782.13.4727.3
RBJonathan Stewart077683.00.6111.9
TEGreg Olsen070070.00.5210.1
WRPhilly Brown038240.00.376.2
WRJerricho Cotchery041041.00.326.0
WRTed Ginn Jr.034336.00.375.8
RBMike Tolbert0101322.00.384.5
WRDevin Funchess026026.00.284.3
TEEd Dickson010010.00.111.6
RBCameron Artis-Payne0268.00.051.1
QBDerek Anderson2002.02.000.2
TEScott Simonson0101.00.010.1
RBFozzy Whittaker0011.00.010.1
QBJoe Webb0000.00.000.1
WRBrenton Bersin0000.00.000.1
WRKevin Norwood0000.00.000.0
RBBrandon Wegher0000.00.000.0

—Ian Allan

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