Normally we send out our game previews on Wednesday morning. With there being just four teams left, there’s not really enough meat there to merit putting together a mini-publication. I am, however, posting previews for each of the remaining teams, posting them separately. I put up Arizona and Carolina yesterday, and now I’ll turn my attention to the Patriots.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:

The Broncos have a good defense. No team allowed fewer yards in the regular season, and only three gave up fewer points – 1st against the pass and 2nd against the run. But in today’s game, things tend to be slanted in favor of offenses, and teams like the Patriots tend to come up with game plans that find the pressure points in a defense. They scored 24 points at Denver in Week 12, and that was without both of their best wide receivers (and just two weeks after Dion Lewis was lost for the season). New England scored 3 TDs in that game; this defense has allowed only 27 touchdowns in its 16 other games – about 1-2 per week. This Patriots offense isn’t as balanced as it’s been in the past; they can’t run it like they have in the past. But it’s a veteran group that’s proven it can come through on the road and in key situations. We’re expecting they’ll score about 3 TDs and win this game, maybe even comfortably. … We have no interest in the running game. The offensive line isn’t particularly good, and they don’t have great running back talent. Steven Jackson and Brandon Bolden probably will get the most carries, but if the Patriots were to cut those guys, they probably wouldn't even be able to land roster spots with any other team. Bolden is more of a special teams player and backup, while Jackson is a plodding 32-year-old who simply doesn’t have anything left. If he did, the Cowboys or some other team would have signed him in the summer. Or in September. Or October. Or November. The Patriots would like for Jackson to be their LeGarrette Blount, but it simply isn’t there. Blount isn’t that good either, but he’s younger and stronger. In three games with the Patriots, Jackson has carried 27 times for 66 yards, with 1 TD. He’s averaged under 3 yards per carry in all of those games. He’ll probably get about a half dozen carries, and if form holds, they should be good for about 15 yards. He’s caught 1 pass in each of his last two games. Maybe Jackson punches in a 1-yard touchdown, but even if the ball winds up the goal line, he’s no sure thing – the Patriots have been using lots of sneaks. Bolden might be slightly better than Jackson as a runner. He carried 9-10 times for 30-36 yards in each of the final three regular season games. That’s slightly less crappy than Jackson, and he also caught 9 passes in those three games. But he’s not sure to be out on the play for anything more than a handful of plays. Against Kansas City, Bolden’s only touch was a reception that lost 3 yards. Bolden caught a 63-yard touchdown in the earlier Denver game, but that’s not going to happen again. They split him out wide a lot more in that game because of their injury problems at wide receiver. Three games in a row New England hasn’t run for more than 70 yards, and very little confidence they will do this week. No real interest in Jackson or Bolden. The smarter play in the backfield is to roll the dice on James White. He also won’t be a factor as a runner. He’s gone seven games in a row without running for more than 6 yards. But they’ll work him in some in a Shane Vereen role, and he can be a factor catching passes. He caught only 2 passes for 5 yards in the last Denver game, but since then he’s caught 30 passes in six games, going for 115, 38, 71, 28, 63 and 39 yards. Very possible he gives you about 40 receiving yards, and he’s also scored 6 TDs in eight games since Dion Lewis got hurt. … Tom Brady had some lesser games late in the year, with just 226, 231 and 134 yards against the Texans, Jets and Dolphins (and only 3 TDs in those games). Their offensive line might be the worst he’s every played behind, in part because left tackle Nate Solder is out for the year. But give Brady enough weapons to work with, and he’s awfully tough to stop, and they’re putting things back together now, with Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola healthy again. They’ll spread the field and the ball will come out quick, making it really hard for Denver’s pass rush to get to him. That was the case last week. Kansas City has a great pass rush, but the ball was coming out quick, and Brady was moving the sticks, with 302 yards and 2 TDs (despite a half dozen drops early). And as great as Denver’s defense is, New England should be able to come up with some concepts that expose weaknesses. They always do. In the Week 12 game, working without his preferred wide receivers, they still spread the field, and Brady in the first half was able to complete 13 of 18 for 106 yards and 2 TDs. Then Rob Gronkowski also got hurt, and things kind of fell apart in the second half. Brady has enough weapons now that he should be able to cobble together a credible game. He’s averaged 298 passing yards this year, with 38 TDs. So something along the lines of 285 yards and 2 TDs makes sense. Ben Roethlisberger was able to throw for 380 and 339 in recent games against this defense. For passing purposes, Brady looks very similar to Carson Palmer, whom we previewed yesterday. But Brady has a better chance of perhaps getting up to 3 TDs. They also use him on quarterback sneaks. Brady has scored 4 of the team’s 15 rushing touchdowns. … Rob Gronkowski is really good, and they know how to use him. He’s fast enough that they’ll get him in some good spots on downfield routes, and with his size, he’s really tough in the red zone. He’s played in 16 games, and he’s caught 13 of their 35 touchdowns in those games. He caught 12 of their 34 TDs in the regular season last year. He’s catching over a third of their touchdowns. They should throw 2-3 TDs in this game, and that makes it look awfully likely that Gronkowski will execute one of his power spikes in the end zone Sunday. Gronkowski is also averaging 79 yards per game this year. In the earlier game he came in with a huge target on his back (with both Edelman and Amendola down) and still caught 6 passes for 88 yards and a touchdown before leaving with a knee injury. … Julian Edelman didn’t play in the earlier Denver game. He’s back now, and that’s huge. They don’t run the ball, so his ability to catch quick throws for short gains is pivotal – he’s like their running game. He’s a targets machine, and that’s been proven time and time again. He’s caught at least 8 passes in each of his last five playoff games. He caught 10 for 100 last week. They don’t have any other receivers who plays with quite the same style. He’s tough, and he works the middle of the field. The Patriots have great cornerbacks, but those kind of throws are awfully hard to take away. If you’re in a PPR format, tough to consider taking any wide receiver before Edelman – he’s essentially a shoo-in for a half-dozen catches. Edelman isn’t a great scorer, but he’s not chopped liver. Setting aside the games he missed with a foot injury, he’s caught 7 of their 24 touchdown passes. Almost a third. He caught only 5 of their 43 touchdown passes (when he was playing) last year. Of the 19 touchdown passes allowed by the Broncos, only 7 have gone to wide receivers, so we’re thinking something like 20 percent is the number to attach to Edelman. That is, when the Patriots finish with 2-3 TD passes, he should catch about 20 percent of them. … We have very little confidence in Brandon LaFell . He’s played a little better recently, but he simply hasn’t been the same guy he was in 2014. He’s caught only 35 of the 70 passes they’ve thrown to him, which is a remarkably low percentage (50 percent) for a receiver working with Tom Brady. He caught 74 of 119 passes last year. No touchdowns, either. LaFell has been shaky enough that earlier in the year it seemed like they were promoting Aaron Dobson ahead of him. Then Dobson got hurt, and Keshawn Martin hasn’t done enough to chip much in LaFell’s role. So LaFell at least is out there pretty much full time. But he hasn’t scored in any of his 12 games, and he’s been under 40 yards in six of his last seven. In the last Denver game, it was logical that LaFell was going to play a huge role (with both Edelman and Amendola out) but LaFell caught only 4 passes for 36 yards that week, on 9 targets. He just doesn’t seem to have it this year. He hasn’t really been any better than Martin. In the last five games, LaFell has caught 15 passes for 162 yards. Martin has caught 16 passes for 178 yards in those games, with a touchdown. … Danny Amendola is a solid, Patriots-type guy. He seems to be tough, smart and versatile. He made the edgy but clever decision on the punt last week, taking out the Kansas City defender trying to down it inside the 5. Amendola will be out there plenty. But if you look at his big games (32 catches against the Giants, Bills, Eagles and Texans), they all came when Edelman was sidelined. Amendola caught only 2 passes for 18 yards last week. And he caught only 30 passes and 2 TDs in the first half of the season, when Edelman was healthy. So about 3-4 catches for Amendola, and they should be shorter catches. He’s not really any better than LaFell or Martin. … Scott Chandler was a factor in some games earlier in the year. He had his best game of the season at Denver in the earlier game, catching 5 passes for 58 yards and a touchdown. But that was when the receiving corps was riddled with injuries. They’re healthy now, while Chandler has hardly been playing (maybe in part because of a knee injury). In the last four games that he’s played, Chandler hasn’t played much, and he hasn’t caught a pass in any of those games.

So that’s the general lay of the land. Patriots players, therefore, grade out as follows, with passing yards, receiving yards, rushing yards, passing touchdowns and total touchdowns (including runs, recs and kick returns). The fantasy points here use standard scoring.

—Ian Allan