Posting now the last of these conference championship team previews. I put up Arizona and Carolina yesterday, and earlier in the day I previewed New England. Now it’s time to take a look at the Broncos.

DENVER BRONCOS:

This is an unusually limited offense for a team in a conference championship game – especially one that’s a No. 1 seed. That speaks to the strength of Denver’s defense. But the Broncos on offense have scored only 33 touchdowns, slightly fewer than 2 per game. They’ve been even worse when Peyton Manning has been at quarterback, with just 17 touchdowns in those 10 games (including 2 TDs late in the Kansas City game, after he was mercifully pulled). New England, on the other hand, has one of the better defenses. It’s a top-10 unit in yards and points, and it’s allowed only 34 touchdowns – 2 per game. The Patriots just lost linebacker Jerod Mayo; that should help some. The Broncos are also playing at home. But tough to look at these two clubs and come to any conclusion other than that the Broncos aren’t likely to score more than 2 TDs (they might even finish with just 1). With this being the last of the four previews, we now have a general feel for the lay of the land. Carolina should have the top offense, up at 3-4 TDs. New England comes in 2nd, at about 3 TDs. Arizona clocks in 3rd, at 2-3 TDs. And Denver finishes in last down at (hopefully) 2 TDs. … Peyton Manning is probably one of the five greatest players in NFL history, and he’s still a Hall of Famer between the ears. There are some things he can do with play calling at the line of scrimmage – recognizing what defenses are trying to do. And give him credit for putting together a decent effort against the Steelers, completing 21 of 37 for 222 yards, with about 5 drops. But Manning is trying to gimp by with maybe the worst physical skills in NFL history. He has no mobility, and he’s working with severe arm strength limitations. Some opponents have been able to draw up game plans that have completely shut him down, which is why Manning couldn’t get the offense in the end zone at all (rushing or passing) against the Ravens, Raiders or Kansas City, and could manage just 1 TD against the Browns and Steelers. In the 10 games he’s started, he’s averaged only 240 passing yards, with just 9 TDs. He’s averaged under a touchdown pass per game, while all of the other quarterbacks still playing are averaging over 2 TDs per game. So tough to have any confidence that he’s suddenly going put things together and put up 270 yards and 2 TDs. Even without Jerod Mayo, the Patriots have plenty of talent, and they tend to be the best-coached team in the league. Three times in recent years, for example, they’ve had undrafted defensive backs come up with timely plays in the end zone in save games in the final minute. Lee Evans has the ball in his hands to advance Baltimore to the Super Bowl, but Sterling Moore knocks it out before Evans hangs onto it long enough. Malcolm Butler jumps the short pass by the Seahawks for the clinching interception at the end of last year’s Super Bowl. And Butler duplicates Moore’s play against Odell Beckham Jr. against the Giants earlier this year, allowing the Patriots to drive for a winning field goal in the final seconds. They make those kind of plays way more than any other team, and here they’re facing a quarterback who’s had problems getting it in the end zone anyway. The Patriots have had success against Manning in the past. In 2013, Manning threw a career-high 55 TDs, but he turned ordinary in a regular-season loss at Foxboro, completing 19 of 36 for only 150 yards, with 2 TDs. The Patriots were helped along by high winds on that night; weather shouldn’t be a problem this time. But Manning can’t throw it anymore like he could two years ago. Last year the Broncos got rolled at New England, 43-21. Manning finished with 438 yards and 2 TDs, but he tossed 2 interceptions and completed under 60 percent of his passes. For the year, Manning is averaging 240 yards and a touchdown per game, and that’s probably about the most to hope for. … If the Broncos are somehow able to win this game, it will be by playing good defense and running the ball. When they beat New England 30-24 in Week 12, it was with C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman combining for 172 yards and 3 TDs on 29 carries. Anderson won it in overtime with a 48-yard run. The Patriots just lost Jerod Mayo, and he’s a key part in the middle of that defense. Denver’s running game, meanwhile, has improved over the course of the season. It was terrible early in the year. If not for a long touchdown by Hillman, it would have been under 70 yards in each of its first five game. Then they went for 152 and 160 yards in wins over Cleveland and Green Bay. After regressing in losses to Indianapolis and Kansas City, they went for 170-plus in each of Brock Osweiler’s first two games, followed by 134 at San Diego. Then another dip, but they’ve been on the upswing again lately, with 113 and 109 against good Cincinnati and Pittsburgh defenses, and 210 in the Week 17 win over San Diego. They’ve averaged 122 rushing yards in their last 12 games, with 11 TDs. And factoring in the Mayo injury, this might be only an average run defense. The Patriots ranked 9th against the run in the regular season. The Patriots don’t tend to allow rushing touchdowns. Other than the 3 TDs they gave up in the earlier Denver game, the Patriots have allowed only 3 rushing touchdowns in their last 14 games. They allowed only 6 rushing touchdowns all of last year. So we’re thinking this is kind of an average situation for these running backs. About 120 yards and probably a touchdown. They’ll both play. Hillman has started each of the last 11 games, but Anderson has been getting almost as much. Over the last three weeks, Hillman has only 1 more carry than Anderson. Anderson, meanwhile, has been slightly more productive. He’s averaged more yards per carry in 9 of the last 10 games that they’ve both played. Anderson averages 80 rushing yards in his last three games, with 3 TDs, while Hillman has averaged 63 yards in those games, with 1 TD. Anderson was more productive in the earlier New England game. They’ve been pretty much interchangeable in the passing game. Hillman has caught 17 passes for 99 yards in his last 10 games; Anderson has caught 13 passes for 94 yards in his last 10 (no touchdowns for either guy). Definitely a time-share. We’re not crazy about either back, but the pickings are slim at running back this week. … Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders should be the main pass catchers. In the previous New England game, Thomas caught only 1 of 13 passes thrown his way; he was plagued by ugly drops, then came up with a big catch late. But let’s not get too worried about that game. He’s a big-time receiver who’s a proven performer, and the Broncos were using Brock Osweiler at that time – so he was seeing different throws. Thomas and Sanders should catch a healthy number of balls. In Manning’s 10 complete games, they’ve averaged 79 and 72 yards per game. Sanders has outscored Thomas 4-1 in those games. We don’t see either as a knockout option this week, but they’re at least healthy, full-time players, and with the Patriots probably more concerned about Denver running the ball, they’ll probably see a decent amount of single coverage. … The Broncos don’t seem to have a clearly defined No. 3 receiver. Jordan Norwood, Bennie Fowler, Cody Latimer and Andre Caldwell all saw 2-4 targets last week. … Owen Daniels is Denver’s main tight end. He doesn’t catch many passes, but the Broncos use their tight ends in the red zone. Peyton Manning has thrown only 9 TDs, but 4 of them have gone to tight ends. Daniels has caught 3 TDs. But he’s averaged only 24 yards in Manning’s 10 full games. … In Vernon Davis, the Broncos have the only active tight end in the league who’s gone over 100 yards four times in playoff games. But it seems like they’ve completely given up on him. He had key drops at the end of the losses to the Raiders and Steelers, and now he’s hardly even gotten on the field in the last three weeks.

Putting the scouting report in numerical form, it works out to something like this …

—Ian Allan