Fantasy Index

Fantasy Index Weekly

January 21, 2016

Week 20 Kickers

Gano looks like top kicker; Newton looks like No. 1 overall

Completing my look at the conference championship games, I turn my attention to the kickers. I looked at the defenses on Monday, the Cardinals and Panthers on Tuesday, and the Patriots and Broncos yesterday. Now let’s put numbers to the kickers and look at our overall board for the weekend.

With kickers, I am more interested in the teams and the overall games, rather than trying to parse through whatever slight difference in accuracy exists between these guys. They’re all accurate enough, and weather isn’t expected to be a factor at either venue.

Mostly, it’s about winning. You want kickers on teams that are going to win. You win games by scoring points, and it’s all kind of tied together. Good, winning teams tend to produce higher-scoring kickers.

That’s how it’s played out with these guys. Each of them has averaged more points in wins than losses this year. Not always the case, of course. Chandler Catanzaro scored 16 points in a home loss to the Rams, for example. But on average, these guys don’t score as much when their teams are losing.

KICKER SCORING: wins vs. losses
PlayerWinsLosses
Gostkowski11.55.5
Gano8.77.0
Catanzaro9.47.7
McManus9.85.5

Therefore, let’s circle back to our overall analysis. We’ve concluded that Carolina is the team most likely to win, so we’ll go with Graham Gano first. Patriots (I think) will win in Denver, so I’m going with Stephen Gostkowski next. Broncos are more likely than the Cardinals to spring an upset, so I’m putting Brandon McManus ahead of Catanzaro.

If you look at what the offenses and defense of all of these teams have done (that is, if you average those numbers) all of these kickers grade out at 7-8 points. That’s the ballpark we’re looking at.

And that brings us to the end of this endeavor. If you use standard scoring (6 points for touchdowns, 4 for TD passes, 1 for every 20 yards and 1 for every 10 run/rec yards) I think the 50 most productive players this weekend will come in the following order (with defenses getting 2 points for takeaways, 1 for sacks and 6 for touchdowns, including kick returns).

OVERALL TOP 50 (Standard scoring)
RkPosTeamPlayerPoints
1.QBCARCam Newton26.8
2.QBNETom Brady24.1
3.QBARICarson Palmer22.7
4.QBDENPeyton Manning15.6
5.RBARIDavid Johnson13.8
6.TENERob Gronkowski11.9
7.RBCARJonathan Stewart11.7
8.RBDENC.J. Anderson10.4
9.WRARILarry Fitzgerald10.2
10.WRARIMichael Floyd10.0
11.TECARGreg Olsen9.9
12.WRNEJulian Edelman9.8
13.WRARIJohn Brown9.7
14.RBDENRonnie Hillman8.6
15.WRDENEmmanuel Sanders8.5
16.PKCARGraham Gano8.4
17.PKNEStephen Gostkowski8.2
18.WRDENDemaryius Thomas7.8
19.PKDENBrandon McManus7.3
20.STNEPatriots7.1
21.STCARPanthers7.0
22.PKARIChandler Catanzaro7.0
23.RBNEJames White6.9
24.RBNESteven Jackson6.3
25.WRCARPhilly Brown6.1
26.WRCARJerricho Cotchery5.9
27.WRCARTed Ginn Jr.5.8
28.STARICardinals5.5
29.STDENBroncos5.0
30.RBNEBrandon Bolden4.7
31.WRNEDanny Amendola4.6
32.RBCARMike Tolbert4.4
33.WRCARDevin Funchess4.3
34.WRNEBrandon LaFell3.9
35.TEDENOwen Daniels3.7
36.WRNEKeshawn Martin3.1
37.RBARIAndre Ellington2.9
38.TEARIDarren Fells2.8
39.WRDENJordan Norwood2.6
40.TEDENVirgil Green1.7
41.TEARIJermaine Gresham1.6
42.TECAREd Dickson1.6
43.WRDENBennie Fowler1.4
44.WRDENAndre Caldwell1.1
45.WRARIJ.J. Nelson.9
46.WRDENCody Latimer.8
47.RBCARFozzy Whittaker.8
48.TENEScott Chandler.8
49.QBDENBrock Osweiler.7
50.TEARITroy Niklas.4

Many use PPR, and with the kind of scoring, the pass catchers come out a little higher. On this one, I have also tweaked the defenses, giving them a little credit for holding opponents under 24 points (at a rate of a half point for every NFL point).

OVERALL TOP 50 (PPR scoring)
RkPosTeamPlayerPoints
1.QBCARCam Newton26.8
2.QBNETom Brady24.1
3.QBARICarson Palmer22.7
4.TENERob Gronkowski17.2
5.RBARIDavid Johnson16.9
6.WRNEJulian Edelman16.3
7.WRARILarry Fitzgerald16.1
8.QBDENPeyton Manning15.6
9.TECARGreg Olsen15.4
10.WRARIMichael Floyd14.3
11.WRARIJohn Brown14.0
12.WRDENEmmanuel Sanders13.4
13.WRDENDemaryius Thomas12.9
14.RBCARJonathan Stewart12.6
15.RBDENC.J. Anderson11.6
16.RBNEJames White11.4
17.RBDENRonnie Hillman9.8
18.WRCARJerricho Cotchery9.2
19.STNEPatriots8.9
20.WRCARPhilly Brown8.8
21.PKCARGraham Gano8.4
22.PKNEStephen Gostkowski8.2
23.STCARPanthers7.8
24.WRCARTed Ginn Jr.7.8
25.WRNEDanny Amendola7.6
26.RBNESteven Jackson7.6
27.PKDENBrandon McManus7.3
28.PKARIChandler Catanzaro7.0
29.RBNEBrandon Bolden6.3
30.WRNEBrandon LaFell6.0
31.TEDENOwen Daniels6.0
32.WRCARDevin Funchess6.0
33.RBCARMike Tolbert5.8
34.STDENBroncos5.0
35.WRNEKeshawn Martin4.9
36.STARICardinals4.7
37.TEARIDarren Fells4.5
38.WRDENJordan Norwood4.3
39.RBARIAndre Ellington4.0
40.TEDENVirgil Green2.9
41.TEARIJermaine Gresham2.7
42.TECAREd Dickson2.6
43.WRDENBennie Fowler2.3
44.WRDENAndre Caldwell1.9
45.WRDENCody Latimer1.3
46.WRARIJ.J. Nelson1.2
47.RBCARFozzy Whittaker1.2
48.TENEScott Chandler1.1
49.QBDENBrock Osweiler.7
50.TEARITroy Niklas.7

As usual with this kind of thing, don’t hesitate to tell me where you think I’ve gone wrong.

—Ian Allan

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