It’s not easy for running backs to get paid nowadays. Marvin Jones was a serviceable starting receiver for the Bengals. He got a contract that’s larger than any of the free agent running backs. Mohamed Sanu was a mediocre No. 3 receiver for Cincinnati; the deal he signed with Atlanta that would be close to the top for a running back.
Doug Martin got a pretty good deal to stay with the Bucs -- $35.75 million for five years. Among guys who have moved teams, Lamar Miller and Chris Ivory have landed the biggest deals, both averaging over $6 million per year. Miller signed for $26 million for four years, with over half guaranteed, while Ivory’s $32 million for five years includes $10 million guaranteed.
C.J. Anderson comes next. He signed a four-year deal worth $18 million – $4.5 million per year, on average. Matt Forte got about $4 million per year, and Bilal Powell comes in just a notch below him.
For fantasy purposes, there are no gems in here.
Among guys on new teams, Miller looks like the best fantasy option. He’s been good at times, and he definitely has speed. He shredded his new team when he saw them last year. In the Monday night game against the Giants, when the Dolphins were wearing their 1972 throwbacks, he looked like a modern-day Mercury Morris in the first half, ripping off long gainers.
Miller’s beef with the Dolphins is that he didn’t feel they ever used him enough. Miami isn’t saving, but they presumably feel he’s not built or otherwise suited to be a bell-cow back who handles the ball 20 times per game.
But Houston is a solid playoff contender and Miller is now they’re clear main back. He’s definitely the No. 1 free agent runner. Early guess is he’ll show up around 10th among running backs on boards this summer.
Anderson, I think, will be the 2nd-best of the free agent runners. I’m not sure yet where he’s playing. The Broncos have until Tuesday to decide whether or not they’ll match Miami’s offer. He started off slow last year, but he played pretty well in the final two thirds of the season.
On my boards, I will have Forte higher than Ivory, even though he’s making a lot less. Forte is 30, and many will point out that you don’t draft 30-year-old running backs. That’s easy to say and repeat, but when you actually look at the numbers, I don’t see any magical dropoff that occurs between 29 and 30. Truth is, there are good 30-year-old running backs every year. I think Forte still has something less, especially with pass-catching being such a huge part of his game. This is not a Christian Okoye or Earl Campbell type back who’s game is built on trying to run over defenders on every play. Forte is more of a run-catch-smarts back, like Marcus Allen.
Ivory, I think, is more like Okoye and Campbell. He runs hard and violently, and he’s had a tendency to wear down. For fantasy purposes, note that he’s a pretty awful receiver. I believe he’ll split time with T.J. Yeldon, and I’m not particularly excited about time-share running backs who don’t catch passes.
I haven’t heard much about where Alfred Morris and Arian Foster will wind up, but those guys have been really good in the past. Washington started phasing out Morris last year, but he’s 27 and I think he can still play. Like Ivory, he’s not much of a pass catcher.
Foster is 30 and has had a lot of injuries, but he’s also potentially very solid when healthy. If he’s right physically, he’ll fit in somewhere. I wouldn’t rule out New England, given that over the last 10-15 years, they’ve employed more 30-plus year old running backs than any other team.
Bilal Powell is a good third-down and change-of-pace back. I imagine the Jets will work him in for about a third of their playing time behind Forte. His contract is almost as large. He was particularly effective in the final month of last season.
I’ve got three older backs at the bottom of my top 10. LeGarrette Blount supposedly has been talking with the Patriots. Another big bruiser who doesn’t catch much. Joique Bell will be 30 in August; the Lions cut him, but not without first trying to get him to take a pay cut. Chris Johnson started most of last year for Arizona, and he’s also 30.
Lance Dunbar is coming off a knee surgery; assuming they get him back to full strength, I think he’ll be one of the better third-down backs (for Dallas).
James Starks and Ronnie Hillman were good No. 2 backs last year – co-starters at times last year. But neither is dynamic; neither looks likely to develop into a No. 1.
Christine Michael had a couple of decent starts late last year for Seattle, and he might wind up back there. But they didn’t like him enough that they were willing to offer him a tender. I believe they’ll want him back to compete for the No. 2 job (at a lower price) but they didn’t want to just hand him that job.
Tim Hightower finished last season as the starting tailback for New Orleans (with Mark Ingram hurt). The Saints like him enough that they’re trying to re-sign him, so they didn’t offer Khiry Robinson a tender (and he then signed with the Jets).
| IAN'S TOP 30 FREE AGENT RUNNING BACKS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | Old | New |
| 1. | Doug Martin | T.B. | T.B. |
| 2. | Lamar Miller | Mia. | Hou. |
| 3. | C.J. Anderson (RFA) | Den. | Mia. or Den. |
| 4. | Matt Forte | Chi. | NYJ |
| 5. | Chris Ivory | NYJ | Jac. |
| 6. | Alfred Morris | Wash. | --- |
| 7. | Arian Foster | Hou. | --- |
| 8. | Bilal Powell | NYJ | NYJ |
| 9. | LeGarrette Blount | N.E. | --- |
| 10. | Joique Bell | Det. | --- |
| 11. | Chris Johnson | Ariz. | --- |
| 12. | Lance Dunbar | Dall. | --- |
| 13. | James Starks | G.B. | --- |
| 14. | Ronnie Hillman | Den. | --- |
| 15. | Christine Michael | Sea. | --- |
| 16. | Benny Cunningham (RFA) | St.L. | --- |
| 17. | Tim Hightower | N.O. | --- |
| 18. | Donald Brown | S.D. | --- |
| 19. | Khiry Robinson | N.O. | NYJ |
| 20. | Matt Asiata | Minn. | --- |
| 21. | Stevan Ridley | NYJ | --- |
| 22. | Toby Gerhart | Jac. | --- |
| 23. | Chris Polk | Hou. | --- |
| 24. | Jordan Todman | Pitt. | --- |
| 25. | Ahmad Bradshaw | Ind. | --- |
| 26. | Robert Turbin | Dall. | --- |
| 27. | Boom Herron | Ind. | --- |
| 28. | Reggie Bush | S.F. | --- |
| 29. | Jacquizz Rodgers | Chi. | Chi. |
| 30. | Boobie Dixon | Buff. | --- |
—Ian Allan