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Ian Allan

Top-10 Running Backs

Superstar running backs don't stay on top for long

When you use a first-round pick on a running back, can you count on that guy coming in and doing what he’s supposed to do – lift your fantasy team to greatness? It’s not as easy as you might think. Injuries, scheme changes, age: numbers suggest you’re about as likely to miss as hit with those picks.

It was particularly ugly last year. DeMarco Murray and Marshawn Lynch underperformed. LeVeon Bell, Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster got hurt. Eddie Lacy got fat. Even a couple of the backs who put up top-10 type numbers for the second year in a row didn’t have great year – Matt Forte and Jeremy Hill.

It’s a tough position.

In an effort to express this numerically, I have taken the top 10 running backs of each of the last 10 years. That’s using standard fantasy scoring – 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards (run/rec). Those are the guys, in a general sense, who tend to get selected in the first and second rounds of fantasy drafts the next year.

Then I tracked how those guys did in their followup seasons.

Turns out that only 22 of those 100 running backs put up top-5 numbers the next season. Of, if you look at it from the other direction, 78 percent of running backs putting up top-5 numbers are guys who weren’t in the top 10 the previous season.

To me, this means you shouldn’t be shy about being aggressive with your picks. If you’ve got a running back that you think is going to be a breakout guy – a player who was perhaps the 22nd-best running back the previous season – you should follow your instincts/research and strongly go after said player.

There are an even 100 players in this study (which includes one mulligan-type guy, Tiki Barber, who retired after a big season in 2006). Of the 100, only 38 returned to rank in the top 10 the next year. The exact same number (38) didn’t even rank in the top 20.

On the clunky chart here, I’ve got top-10 guys with a black dot in front of their name. Double dots if they’re in the top 5. If a guy isn’t in the top 20 (which we can call a “miss”, for fantasy purposes) I’ve got his name in bold.

They’re listed in chronological order, with their 1-10 rank from the previous year.

Lots of numbers, of course, but point is that running back is a very fluid position. Lots of change.

HOW TOP 10 BACKS HAVE FARED
YearPlayerPrev YrYardsTDRank
2006Shaun Alexander1944725
2006•• Larry Johnson22,199192
2006•• LaDainian Tomlinson32,323311
2006• Tiki Barber42,12757
2006Edgerrin James51,376617
2006Clinton Portis6693730
2006• Rudi Johnson71,433128
2006LaMont Jordan8508243
2006Thomas Jones91,364619
2006Mike Anderson10237154
2007•• LaDainian Tomlinson11,949181
2007Larry Johnson2745434
2007Steven Jackson31,273611
2007• Frank Gore41,53868
2007Willie Parker51,480213
2007•• Brian Westbrook62,104122
2007Tiki Barber700--
2007• Maurice Jones-Drew81,1751010
2007Rudi Johnson9607441
2007Deuce McAllister10107073
2008•• LaDainian Tomlinson11,536125
2008• Brian Westbrook21,338148
2008•• Adrian Peterson31,885103
2008Joseph Addai4750731
2008• Clinton Portis51,70596
2008Jamal Lewis61,180419
2008Marion Barber71,302913
2008Willis McGahee8844727
2008• Frank Gore91,409810
2008Edgerrin James10599342
2009DeAngelo Williams11,369713
2009Michael Turner29061020
2009•• Adrian Peterson31,819182
2009Matt Forte41,400416
2009• Thomas Jones51,460146
2009Steve Slaton6854729
2009LaDainian Tomlinson78841217
2009Clinton Portis8551246
2009•• Maurice Jones-Drew91,765163
2009Brian Westbrook10455252
2010•• Chris Johnson11,609124
2010•• Adrian Peterson21,639132
2010Maurice Jones-Drew31,641711
2010• Ray Rice41,776610
2010Frank Gore51,305519
2010Thomas Jones61,018622
2010Ricky Williams7814331
2010Ryan Grant845076
2010Joseph Addai9619437
2010Steven Jackson101,624613
2011•• Arian Foster11,841124
2011Peyton Hillis2717336
2011• Adrian Peterson31,109139
2011Jamaal Charles492175
2011Chris Johnson51,465416
2011Darren McFadden6768531
2011Rashard Mendenhall71,082919
2011•• LeSean McCoy81,624202
2011• Michael Turner91,508116
2011Matt Forte101,487415
2012•• Ray Rice11,621104
2012LeSean McCoy21,213516
2012Maurice Jones-Drew3500238
2012•• Arian Foster41,641172
2012•• Marshawn Lynch51,786123
2012Michael Turner69281114
2012Darren Sproles7911817
2012Ryan Mathews8959123
2012•• Adrian Peterson92,314131
2012Michael Bush10494533
2013• Adrian Peterson11,437116
2013Arian Foster2725238
2013Doug Martin3522149
2013•• Marshawn Lynch41,573144
2013Alfred Morris51,353713
2013Ray Rice6981422
2013C.J. Spiller71,118223
2013•• Jamaal Charles81,980191
2013Frank Gore91,269912
2013Trent Richardson10879430
2014• Jamaal Charles11,324147
2014• LeSean McCoy21,474510
2014•• Matt Forte31,846104
2014•• Marshawn Lynch41,673173
2014Knowshon Moreno5156166
2014Adrian Peterson693077
2014• Eddie Lacy71,566136
2014•• DeMarco Murray82,261131
2014Chris Johnson9814227
2014Reggie Bush10550237
2015DeMarco Murray11,024715
2015LeVeon Bell2692333
2015Marshawn Lynch3497338
2015• Matt Forte41,28777
2015Arian Foster5390345
2015Eddie Lacy6946521
2015Jamaal Charles7541535
2015Justin Forsett8794231
2015•• Lamar Miller91,269105
2015Jeremy Hill108731211

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