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Ian Allan

Top-10 Wide Receivers

Are wide receivers safer draft choices than running backs?

My gut tends to tell me that wide receivers are “safer” choices than running backs. That is, when you’re sitting in the middle of the first round, the better route is to go with a pass catcher rather than a runner – take the guy that you know will be good. Julio Jones and Antonio Brown, for example, were great last year, and everybody knew they were going to be great. Why take a flyer on a hit-or-miss running back, when you can definitely fortify your offense with a pass-catching monster.

Yesterday I posted the chart showing that of the last 100 top-10 running backs (over 10 years) just as many finished outside the top 20 the following year as landed in the top 10 again.

With that in mind, I figured I’d put together the same chart for wide receivers, showing how they compared. My expectation was that they’d be at least a little bit more solid.

But the results surprised me. Turns out there’s also a surprising amount of misses with the so-called top tier wide receivers.

I was aware that busts and injuries occur. Julio Jones, for example, broke his foot a few years ago. Last year Jordy Nelson and Dez Bryant got torpedoed by injuries. But I figured wide receivers would be more steady.

Not really the case.

Of the last 100 top-10 wide receivers (using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards) 38 didn’t even finish in the top 20 the next year. That’s the exact same number as the running backs.

Of those hot 100, only 21 in their next season finished in the top 5. That’s one fewer than with the running backs. And repeating for emphasis: If you want a top-5 receiver, over 80 percent of those guys in their previous season did not rank in the top 10.

Of the previous hot 100 receivers, 37 in their next season ranked in the top 10. That’s almost identical with running backs (which had 38).

I still like the idea of choosing a receiver that I think is a can’t-miss prospect, but I may need to head back to the drawing board and fine-tune my overall rule of thumb a little.

Here are the top 100 receivers from the last 10 years, with their stats for the following season. I’m formatting them exactly as I did the running backs yesterday. If a player ranked outside the top 20, his name is in bold. If he’s in the top 10, he gets a black dot in front of his name. If he’s in the 5, he’s got two dots.

TOP-10 WIDE RECEIVERS IN THEIR NEXT SEASON
YearPlayerPrev YrYardsTDRank
2006• Steve Smith Sr.11,22798
2006Larry Fitzgerald2946622
2006Anquan Boldin31,231416
2006Santana Moss4872624
2006• Torry Holt51,188106
2006•• Chad Johnson61,39374
2006Joey Galloway71,066714
2006Chris Chambers8772436
2006•• Marvin Harrison91,366121
2006Terry Glenn101,058618
2007Marvin Harrison1247189
2007•• Terrell Owens21,360152
2007•• Reggie Wayne31,514104
2007• Chad Johnson41,48786
2007Donald Driver51,052230
2007Torry Holt61,189713
2007Lee Evans7849531
2007Steve Smith Sr.81,068717
2007Javon Walker9284094
2007Roy Williams10837532
2008• Randy Moss11,008119
2008• Terrell Owens21,085108
2008Braylon Edwards3873331
2008Reggie Wayne41,145614
2008•• Larry Fitzgerald51,431121
2008Chad Johnson6540447
2008T.J. Houshmandzadeh7913428
2008Marques Colston8760532
2008• Brandon Marshall91,261610
2008Plaxico Burress10454455
2009•• Larry Fitzgerald11,092135
2009Calvin Johnson21,057522
2009•• Andre Johnson31,56991
2009Greg Jennings41,113421
2009Steve Smith Sr.51,004718
2009• Roddy White61,155117
2009Anquan Boldin71,036523
2009Antonio Bryant8600446
2009Terrell Owens9883624
2009•• Randy Moss101,264132
2010• Andre Johnson11,22689
2010Randy Moss2393561
2010DeSean Jackson31,160811
2010Miles Austin41,134812
2010Larry Fitzgerald51,137615
2010• Reggie Wayne61,35567
2010•• Roddy White71,392103
2010Sidney Rice8280281
2010Brandon Marshall91,017328
2010Vincent Jackson10262377
2011Brandon Lloyd1966521
2011Dwayne Bowe21,171517
2011• Roddy White31,29687
2011Greg Jennings4949915
2011• Mike Wallace51,25088
2011•• Calvin Johnson61,692161
2011Reggie Wayne7960425
2011Hakeem Nicks81,192711
2011Andre Johnson9500260
2011Stevie Johnson101,004718
2012•• Calvin Johnson11,96451
2012Jordy Nelson2745728
2012Wes Welker31,374612
2012Victor Cruz41,0921013
2012Larry Fitzgerald5798440
2012Steve Smith Sr.61,201419
2012Percy Harvin7773538
2012• Roddy White81,351710
2012Mike Wallace9843824
2012• Vincent Jackson101,38486
2013•• Calvin Johnson11,492123
2013•• Brandon Marshall21,295125
2013• Dez Bryant31,234137
2013•• A.J. Green41,426114
2013•• Demaryius Thomas51,430142
2013Vincent Jackson61,224714
2013• Eric Decker71,288119
2013Andre Johnson81,407512
2013Julio Jones9587255
2013Roddy White10711347
2014Josh Gordon1303082
2014•• Demaryius Thomas21,619112
2014Calvin Johnson31,077812
2014A.J. Green41,043617
2014Brandon Marshall5721827
2014•• Antonio Brown61,711141
2014•• Dez Bryant71,320164
2014• Alshon Jeffery81,166109
2014Eric Decker9962522
2014DeSean Jackson101,176613
2015•• Antonio Brown11,862111
2015Demaryius Thomas21,304613
2015Jordy Nelson300---
2015Dez Bryant4401364
2015Randall Cobb5879727
2015•• Odell Beckham Jr.61,453135
2015Emmanuel Sanders71,164618
2015•• Julio Jones81,87192
2015Jeremy Maclin91,102817
2015T.Y. Hilton101,124523

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