Many of the key decisions that must be made for 2016 center around second-year running backs. Do we trust the rookies who showed potential in their first year – Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Thomas Rawls? And what about less-successful backs who are being counted on by their NFL teams to step things up – Melvin Gordon, Jeremy Langford and Matt Jones?
The cases of those second-chance guys, I think, are particularly compelling.
Gordon was a pretty ineffective rookie, but he was a top-15 pick, and he’ll have a better offensive line this year.
Jones is being counted on to carry a much bigger load for Washington (which didn’t re-sign Alfred Morris), but he was pretty lousy last year outside of a couple of big plays. He averaged only 3.4 yards per carry, lowest of all players with at least 100 attempts – worse even than Gordon.
Langford wasn’t much better (just over 3.6 per carry), but the Bears are hoping he can replace Matt Forte.
The theory is that these backs should be better in the second year. They know the offense better now. They have a better understanding of the speed of the pro game. They’ve had a chance to work themselves into slightly better shape.
But should we trust them?
The historical data suggests they’re far more likely to miss than hit.
If our count is correct (and I might be missing a back or two), there have been 79 running backs who’ve carried the ball 100-plus times in their first year since 2000. Fifteen of those backs in their first year averaged under 3.6 yards per carry. That is, they struggled as runners (and this is the boat Matt Jones and Melvin Gordon are getting added to). Langford is just above that group.
Now let’s check the second-year numbers of those backs (leaving out Jamal Lewis and Correll Buckhalter, who suffered season-ending injuries before the next season even began). Only two of the 15 backs who struggled (LeVeon Bell and Travis Henry) showed up and really kicked butt in their second year. Tim Hightower was pretty good, with 1,026 total yards and 8 TDs. Then you’re into something less than ideal with the remaining 12 (Ron Dayne is the best of that group, with 757 total yards and 7 TDs). Thomas Jones is in this group, and while he eventually had some great seasons, it still wasn’t happening for him in his second year.
I’ll bet some will put both Jones and Langford in their top 10 running backs this summer. But probably at least one of those guys will bust. Maybe both. Gordon looks less promising, given the way that offense tends to work, so I don’t think Gordon will get into many top 20s.
Here are the 77 backs. The 15 in bold are the ones who averaged under 3.6 yards per carry in their first season. The numbers you see here are what the backs did in year No. 2. Fantasy points based on 6 for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards.
| ROOKIE RUNNERS WITH 100 CARRIES (the next year) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Player | Run | Avg | Rec | Total | TD | Points |
| 2008 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 2,006 | 5.60 | 503 | 2,509 | 16 | 346.9 |
| 2001 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,683 | 4.52 | 489 | 2,172 | 15 | 307.2 |
| 2013 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 1,361 | 4.69 | 854 | 2,215 | 11 | 287.5 |
| 2002 | Clinton Portis, Den. | 1,591 | 5.49 | 314 | 1,905 | 14 | 274.5 |
| 2005 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 1,695 | 5.43 | 485 | 2,180 | 9 | 272.0 |
| 2003 | Domanick Davis, Hou. | 1,188 | 3.93 | 588 | 1,776 | 14 | 261.6 |
| 2001 | Travis Henry, Buff. | 1,438 | 4.42 | 309 | 1,747 | 14 | 258.7 |
| 2008 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 1,339 | 5.27 | 702 | 2,041 | 8 | 252.1 |
| 2007 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 1,760 | 4.85 | 125 | 1,885 | 10 | 248.5 |
| 2013 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 1,139 | 4.63 | 427 | 1,566 | 13 | 234.6 |
| 2006 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 1,072 | 4.11 | 364 | 1,436 | 15 | 233.6 |
| 2009 | LeSean McCoy , Phil. | 1,080 | 5.22 | 592 | 1,672 | 9 | 221.2 |
| 2001 | Michael Bennett, Minn. | 1,296 | 5.08 | 351 | 1,647 | 6 | 200.7 |
| 2004 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1,046 | 4.12 | 320 | 1,366 | 10 | 196.6 |
| 2008 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 1,133 | 5.13 | 139 | 1,272 | 11 | 193.2 |
| 2010 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 1,091 | 4.91 | 455 | 1,546 | 6 | 190.6 |
| 2007 | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 1,036 | 4.14 | 300 | 1,336 | 9 | 187.6 |
| 2005 | Marion Barber, Dall. | 654 | 4.84 | 196 | 850 | 16 | 181.0 |
| 2006 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 768 | 4.60 | 407 | 1,175 | 10 | 177.5 |
| 2012 | Alfred Morris, Wash. | 1,275 | 4.62 | 78 | 1,353 | 7 | 177.3 |
| 2008 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 929 | 3.60 | 471 | 1,400 | 4 | 164.0 |
| 2009 | Knowshon Moreno , Den. | 779 | 4.28 | 372 | 1,151 | 8 | 163.1 |
| 2014 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 794 | 3.56 | 79 | 873 | 12 | 159.3 |
| 2005 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 1,008 | 4.18 | 276 | 1,284 | 5 | 158.4 |
| 2002 | T.J. Duckett, Atl. | 779 | 3.95 | 94 | 873 | 11 | 153.3 |
| 2004 | Julius Jones, Dall. | 993 | 3.86 | 218 | 1,211 | 5 | 151.1 |
| 2008 | Tim Hightower, Ariz. | 598 | 4.18 | 428 | 1,026 | 8 | 150.6 |
| 2008 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 747 | 3.44 | 415 | 1,162 | 5 | 146.2 |
| 2013 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 680 | 4.05 | 349 | 1,029 | 7 | 144.9 |
| 2006 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 581 | 3.70 | 417 | 998 | 6 | 135.8 |
| 2013 | Andre Ellington , Ariz. | 660 | 3.28 | 395 | 1,055 | 5 | 135.5 |
| 2006 | Laurence Maroney, N.E. | 835 | 4.51 | 116 | 951 | 6 | 131.1 |
| 2008 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 437 | 3.34 | 417 | 854 | 7 | 127.4 |
| 2001 | Anthony Thomas, Chi. | 721 | 3.37 | 163 | 884 | 6 | 124.4 |
| 2010 | LeGarrette Blount, Tenn. | 781 | 4.24 | 148 | 929 | 5 | 122.9 |
| 2006 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 717 | 4.98 | 175 | 892 | 5 | 119.2 |
| 2014 | Isaiah Crowell, Clev. | 706 | 3.82 | 182 | 888 | 5 | 118.8 |
| 2003 | Onterrio Smith, Minn. | 544 | 4.39 | 394 | 938 | 4 | 117.8 |
| 2000 | Ron Dayne, NYG | 690 | 3.83 | 67 | 757 | 7 | 117.7 |
| 2011 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 663 | 4.12 | 251 | 914 | 4 | 115.4 |
| 2001 | Kevan Barlow, S.F. | 675 | 4.66 | 136 | 811 | 5 | 111.1 |
| 2004 | Kevin Jones, Det. | 664 | 3.57 | 109 | 773 | 5 | 107.3 |
| 2005 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 798 | 3.55 | 196 | 994 | 1 | 105.4 |
| 2009 | Shonn Greene , NYJ | 766 | 4.14 | 120 | 886 | 2 | 100.6 |
| 2014 | Alfred Blue, Hou. | 698 | 3.81 | 109 | 807 | 3 | 98.7 |
| 2000 | Mike Anderson, Den. | 678 | 3.87 | 46 | 724 | 4 | 96.4 |
| 2012 | Trent Richardson, Clev. | 458 | 2.92 | 265 | 723 | 4 | 96.3 |
| 2011 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 602 | 3.86 | 29 | 631 | 5 | 93.1 |
| 2010 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 390 | 4.64 | 287 | 677 | 3 | 85.7 |
| 2000 | Thomas Jones, Ariz. | 380 | 3.39 | 151 | 531 | 5 | 83.1 |
| 2006 | Leon Washington, NYJ | 353 | 4.97 | 213 | 566 | 3 | 74.6 |
| 2011 | Daniel Thomas, Mia. | 325 | 3.57 | 156 | 481 | 4 | 72.1 |
| 2002 | William Green, Clev. | 559 | 3.94 | 50 | 609 | 1 | 66.9 |
| 2008 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 357 | 3.43 | 245 | 602 | 1 | 66.2 |
| 2012 | Bernard Pierce, Balt. | 436 | 2.87 | 104 | 540 | 2 | 66.0 |
| 2014 | Jerick McKinnon, Minn. | 271 | 5.21 | 173 | 444 | 3 | 62.4 |
| 2001 | James Jackson, Clev. | 54 | 4.50 | 9 | 63 | 9 | 60.3 |
| 2009 | Beanie Wells , Ariz. | 397 | 3.42 | 74 | 471 | 2 | 59.1 |
| 2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 456 | 3.59 | 66 | 522 | 1 | 58.2 |
| 2011 | Kendall Hunter, S.F. | 371 | 5.15 | 60 | 431 | 2 | 55.1 |
| 2012 | Bryce Brown, Phil. | 314 | 4.19 | 84 | 398 | 2 | 51.8 |
| 2013 | Zac Stacy , St.L. | 293 | 3.86 | 152 | 445 | 1 | 50.5 |
| 2014 | Bishop Sankey, Tenn. | 193 | 4.11 | 139 | 332 | 2 | 45.2 |
| 2014 | Tre Mason, St.L. | 207 | 2.76 | 88 | 295 | 1 | 35.5 |
| 2005 | Samkon Gado, K.C. | 210 | 3.75 | 85 | 295 | 1 | 35.5 |
| 2014 | Andre Williams, NYG | 257 | 2.92 | 7 | 264 | 1 | 32.4 |
| 2013 | Montee Ball, Den. | 172 | 3.13 | 62 | 234 | 1 | 29.4 |
| 2014 | Terrance West, Clev. | 231 | 3.73 | 21 | 252 | 0 | 25.2 |
| 2000 | J.R. Redmond, N.E. | 119 | 3.40 | 132 | 251 | 0 | 25.1 |
| 2014 | Branden Oliver, S.D. | 108 | 3.48 | 112 | 220 | 0 | 22.0 |
| 2000 | Travis Prentice, Clev. | 13 | .93 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 14.3 |
| 2005 | J.J. Arrington, Ariz. | 19 | 1.36 | 58 | 77 | 1 | 13.7 |
| 2012 | Vick Ballard, Ind. | 63 | 4.85 | -5 | 58 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 2011 | Roy Helu, Wash. | 2 | 1.00 | 45 | 47 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 2002 | Jonathan Wells, Hou. | 14 | 2.80 | 17 | 31 | 0 | 3.1 |
—Ian Allan