There’s the theory that it takes tight ends longer to adjust to the pros. They’ve got to be both blockers and pass catchers, so it takes them longer to pick up the playbook. That’s the theory, and it sounds logical. But is it actually true?
I did a short test on this.
I looked at players selected in the second round. And I decided to compare tight ends with wide receivers (since both positional groups catch passes). I looked at all such players in this century, then tabulated the results.
I chose the second round because not that many tight ends get selected in the first. When you get down into the third round, then we’re definitely mixing in lesser guys and lower expectations.
Ends up there is a better spike for tight ends in that second year.
There have been 24 selected in the 2000-2014 seasons. That group’s production rose by 56 percent in their second year. On average, they caught 10 more passes in their second season, with an extra 37 touchdowns between the guys.
| TIGHT ENDS, FIRST TWO YEARS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | 1st year | 2nd year | Improve |
| 2004 | Kris Wilson | 0-0-0 | 3-33-0 | 999% |
| 2009 | Richard Quinn | 0-0-0 | 1-9-0 | 999% |
| 2008 | Fred Davis | 3-27-0 | 48-509-6 | 999% |
| 2014 | Troy Niklas | 3-38-0 | 4-33-2 | 303% |
| 2011 | Kyle Rudolph | 26-249-3 | 53-493-9 | 141% |
| 2011 | Lance Kendricks | 28-352-0 | 42-519-4 | 116% |
| 2012 | Coby Fleener | 26-281-2 | 52-608-4 | 111% |
| 2010 | Rob Gronkowski | 42-546-10 | 90-1327-17 | 105% |
| 2004 | Ben Troupe | 33-329-1 | 55-530-4 | 98% |
| 2003 | L.J. Smith | 27-321-1 | 34-377-5 | 78% |
| 2014 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 21-221-2 | 21-338-4 | 70% |
| 2006 | Tony Scheffler | 18-286-4 | 49-549-5 | 61% |
| 2006 | Anthony Fasano | 14-126-0 | 14-143-1 | 61% |
| 2001 | Alge Crumpler | 25-330-3 | 36-455-5 | 48% |
| 2013 | Gavin Escobar | 9-134-2 | 9-105-4 | 36% |
| 2007 | Zach Miller | 44-444-3 | 56-778-1 | 34% |
| 2003 | Teyo Johnson | 14-128-1 | 9-131-2 | 34% |
| 2013 | Zach Ertz | 36-469-4 | 58-702-3 | 24% |
| 2008 | John Carlson | 55-627-5 | 51-574-7 | 7% |
| 2003 | Bennie Joppru | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | --- |
| 2002 | Doug Jolley | 32-409-2 | 31-250-1 | -41% |
| 2006 | Joe Klopfenstein | 20-226-1 | 2-37-1 | -66% |
| 2008 | Martellus Bennett | 20-283-4 | 15-159-0 | -70% |
| 2013 | Vance McDonald | 8-119-0 | 2-30-0 | -75% |
Wide receivers also improved, but not as much. They’re overall production rose by 25 percent (less than half as much). That’s using fantasy scoring of 1 point for every 10 yards and 6 points for touchdowns.
There were 66 wide receives in the study, combined they scored 49 more touchdowns in their second season (an average of less than one per guy), with an average of 5 more catches per player.
On both of these charts, I’ve capped the increase number at 999%.
| WIDE RECEIVERS, FIRST TWO YEARS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | 1st year | 2nd year | Improve |
| 2004 | Devery Henderson | 0-0-0 | 22-343-3 | 999% |
| 2001 | Robert Ferguson | 0-0-0 | 22-293-3 | 999% |
| 2000 | Jerry Porter | 1-6-0 | 19-220-0 | 999% |
| 2008 | Malcolm Kelly | 3-18-0 | 25-347-0 | 999% |
| 2005 | Vincent Jackson | 3-59-0 | 27-453-6 | 999% |
| 2007 | Steve Smith | 8-63-0 | 57-574-1 | 906% |
| 2006 | Sinorice Moss | 5-25-0 | 21-225-0 | 800% |
| 2002 | Tim Carter | 2-37-0 | 26-309-0 | 735% |
| 2014 | Cody Latimer | 2-23-0 | 6-59-1 | 417% |
| 2009 | Brian Robiskie | 7-106-0 | 29-310-3 | 362% |
| 2000 | Todd Pinkston | 10-181-0 | 42-586-4 | 356% |
| 2001 | Chad Johnson | 28-329-1 | 69-1166-5 | 277% |
| 2012 | Alshon Jeffery | 24-367-3 | 89-1421-7 | 237% |
| 2014 | Allen Robinson | 48-548-2 | 80-1400-14 | 235% |
| 2011 | Randall Cobb | 25-375-1 | 80-954-8 | 230% |
| 2008 | Devin Thomas | 15-120-1 | 25-325-3 | 181% |
| 2001 | Quincy Morgan | 30-432-2 | 56-964-7 | 151% |
| 2010 | Golden Tate | 21-227-0 | 35-382-3 | 148% |
| 2005 | Roscoe Parrish | 15-148-1 | 23-320-3 | 140% |
| 2012 | Rueben Randle | 19-298-3 | 41-611-6 | 103% |
| 2006 | Greg Jennings | 45-632-3 | 53-920-12 | 102% |
| 2005 | Mark Bradley | 18-230-0 | 14-282-3 | 101% |
| 2012 | Josh Gordon | 50-805-5 | 87-1646-9 | 98% |
| 2003 | Taylor Jacobs | 3-37-1 | 16-178-0 | 84% |
| 2005 | Reggie Brown | 43-571-4 | 46-816-9 | 67% |
| 2007 | Dwayne Jarrett | 6-73-0 | 10-119-0 | 63% |
| 2008 | DeSean Jackson | 62-912-4 | 62-1156-12 | 63% |
| 2002 | Deion Branch | 43-489-2 | 57-803-3 | 61% |
| 2012 | Brian Quick | 11-156-2 | 18-302-2 | 53% |
| 2010 | Dexter McCluster | 21-209-1 | 46-328-1 | 44% |
| 2014 | Jarvis Landry | 84-758-5 | 110-1157-5 | 38% |
| 2013 | Robert Woods | 40-587-3 | 65-699-5 | 30% |
| 2010 | Arrelious Benn | 25-395-2 | 30-441-3 | 21% |
| 2013 | Justin Hunter | 18-354-4 | 28-498-3 | 14% |
| 2002 | Josh Reed | 37-514-2 | 58-588-2 | 12% |
| 2014 | Jordan Matthews | 67-872-8 | 85-997-8 | 9% |
| 2011 | Greg Little | 61-709-2 | 53-647-4 | 7% |
| 2011 | Torrey Smith | 50-841-7 | 49-855-8 | 6% |
| 2002 | Andre Davis | 37-420-7 | 40-576-5 | 4% |
| 2008 | Donnie Avery | 53-674-3 | 47-589-5 | 4% |
| 2002 | Jabar Gaffney | 41-483-1 | 34-402-2 | -4% |
| 2012 | Stephen Hill | 21-252-3 | 24-342-1 | -7% |
| 2008 | Jordy Nelson | 33-366-2 | 22-320-2 | -9% |
| 2014 | Davante Adams | 38-446-3 | 50-483-1 | -13% |
| 2002 | Antwaan Randle El | 47-489-3 | 37-364-3 | -19% |
| 2003 | Bethel Johnson | 16-209-3 | 10-174-2 | -24% |
| 2009 | Mohamed Massaquoi | 34-624-3 | 36-483-2 | -25% |
| 2001 | Chris Chambers | 48-883-7 | 52-734-3 | -30% |
| 2011 | Titus Young | 48-607-6 | 33-383-4 | -36% |
| 2002 | Antonio Bryant | 44-733-6 | 39-550-2 | -39% |
| 2007 | Sidney Rice | 31-396-4 | 15-141-4 | -40% |
| 2014 | Marqise Lee | 37-422-1 | 15-191-1 | -48% |
| 2000 | Dennis Northcutt | 39-422-0 | 18-211-0 | -50% |
| 2004 | Keary Colbert | 47-754-5 | 25-282-2 | -62% |
| 2003 | Anquan Boldin | 101-1377-8 | 56-623-1 | -63% |
| 2008 | Eddie Royal | 91-980-5 | 37-345-2 | -64% |
| 2002 | Reche Caldwell | 22-208-3 | 8-80-0 | -79% |
| 2012 | Ryan Broyles | 22-310-2 | 8-85-0 | -80% |
| 2014 | Paul Richardson | 29-271-1 | 1-40-0 | -88% |
| 2008 | Limas Sweed | 6-64-0 | 1-5-0 | -92% |
| 2013 | Aaron Dobson | 37-519-4 | 3-38-0 | -95% |
| 2004 | Darius Watts | 31-385-1 | 2-22-0 | -95% |
| 2008 | James Hardy | 9-87-2 | 1-9-0 | -96% |
| 2003 | Tyrone Calico | 18-297-4 | 2-13-0 | -98% |
| 2008 | Jerome Simpson | 1-2-0 | 0-0-0 | -100% |
| 2006 | Chad Jackson | 13-152-3 | 0-0-0 | -100% |
| 2005 | Terrence Murphy | 5-36-0 | 0-0-0 | -100% |
—Ian Allan