We all know that wide receivers don’t tend to come in and crush it from day one. They’re best ball will tend to come later in their careers. And we all have a sense that at some point, skills start to decline. But where should look for the best production of a player’s career? Is it most likely to occur when he’s 24? Or when he’s 28 or 32?
I have poked around with the numbers in a semi-scientific way. I took all of the wide receiver numbers I have on file. Then I pulled out only the best season for each player, throwing away the rest. Then I took the top 100 such seasons that have occurred in the last 20 years. So anything before 1996 gets tossed. Jerry Rice, for example, had some big seasons in the late ‘90s, but his best season was in 1995, so he’s not included.
There is some pollution in this approach. Stats have continued to inflate over the years, for example, so a player could potentially have had his biggest numbers in a season that wasn’t actually as good as another year. And more notable, there are a few young players showing up in recent years – Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr. – who haven’t had a chance yet to exceed those numbers as 28-year-olds.
But we have a starting point, and we can play around with some of the figures.
For ages, I used Sept. 1 (the start of the season), and the most popular ages were 24, 25 and 26, with 12-16 guys in each of years. Next comes 27-year-olds and 28-year-olds, with 9 each. So that appears to be the most common peak year – 24 to 28 years old.
You get into the 30s, and guys can still be good, productive players, but they’re just not as good as they were. Only two players had their career-best season as 32-year-olds, and only three did as 33-year-ols. Nobody at 34-plus years old.
| AGES FOR BEST YEAR | |
|---|---|
| Age | No |
| 21 | 3 |
| 22 | 7 |
| 23 | 7 |
| 24 | 14 |
| 25 | 12 |
| 26 | 16 |
| 27 | 9 |
| 28 | 9 |
| 29 | 7 |
| 30 | 6 |
| 31 | 5 |
| 32 | 2 |
| 33 | 3 |
If you want to instead look at NFL seasons, then most of the traffic comes in seasons 2 thru 7, with double digits for all of those years. Only six players peaked in their 8th year, and only four each in their 9th and 10th.
These are the guys who made the cut. I’ve got them in descending order by production, using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards. I am not listing the actual fantasy points because I don’t want to throw too many numbers at you.
| CAREER-BEST SEASONS (WIDE RECEIVERS) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Age | Yr | Yards | TD |
| 2007 | Randy Moss, N.E. | 30 | 10 | 1,493 | 23 |
| 2011 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 25 | 5 | 1,681 | 16 |
| 2014 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 26 | 5 | 1,698 | 14 |
| 2001 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 29 | 6 | 1,524 | 15 |
| 2003 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 27 | 5 | 1,696 | 12 |
| 2015 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 26 | 5 | 1,871 | 9 |
| 2001 | Terrell Owens, S.F. | 27 | 6 | 1,412 | 16 |
| 2004 | Muhsin Muhammad, Car. | 31 | 9 | 1,405 | 16 |
| 2005 | Steve Smith Sr., Car. | 26 | 5 | 1,563 | 13 |
| 2015 | Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 31 | 10 | 1,502 | 14 |
| 2014 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 26 | 5 | 1,619 | 11 |
| 2014 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 29 | 7 | 1,519 | 13 |
| 1998 | Antonio Freeman, G.B. | 26 | 4 | 1,424 | 14 |
| 2014 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 25 | 5 | 1,320 | 16 |
| 2013 | Josh Gordon, Clev. | 22 | 2 | 1,646 | 9 |
| 2002 | Hines Ward, Pitt. | 26 | 5 | 1,329 | 12 |
| 2007 | Braylon Edwards, Clev. | 24 | 3 | 1,289 | 16 |
| 2000 | Rod Smith, Den. | 30 | 6 | 1,602 | 9 |
| 2015 | Allen Robinson, Jac. | 26 | 3 | 1,400 | 14 |
| 2015 | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 22 | 2 | 1,450 | 13 |
| 2015 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 23 | 3 | 1,521 | 11 |
| 2008 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 25 | 5 | 1,431 | 12 |
| 2011 | Wes Welker, N.E. | 30 | 8 | 1,569 | 9 |
| 2009 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 28 | 7 | 1,569 | 9 |
| 2007 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 28 | 7 | 1,510 | 10 |
| 2001 | David Boston, Ariz. | 23 | 3 | 1,598 | 8 |
| 2004 | Javon Walker, G.B. | 25 | 3 | 1,382 | 12 |
| 2010 | Brandon Lloyd, Den. | 29 | 8 | 1,448 | 11 |
| 2013 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 25 | 3 | 1,426 | 11 |
| 1997 | Rob Moore, Ariz. | 28 | 8 | 1,584 | 8 |
| 1996 | Michael Jackson, Balt. | 27 | 6 | 1,201 | 14 |
| 2004 | Joe Horn, N.O. | 32 | 9 | 1,399 | 11 |
| 2011 | Victor Cruz, NYG | 24 | 2 | 1,536 | 9 |
| 2010 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 25 | 4 | 1,162 | 15 |
| 2014 | Randall Cobb, G.B. | 24 | 4 | 1,287 | 12 |
| 2000 | Derrick Alexander, K.C. | 28 | 7 | 1,391 | 10 |
| 2010 | Roddy White, Atl. | 28 | 6 | 1,389 | 10 |
| 2005 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 24 | 3 | 1,483 | 9 |
| 2009 | DeSean Jackson, Phil. | 22 | 2 | 1,167 | 12 |
| 1999 | Jimmy Smith, Jac. | 30 | 7 | 1,636 | 6 |
| 1996 | Tony Martin, S.D. | 30 | 8 | 1,171 | 14 |
| 2014 | Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 27 | 5 | 1,404 | 9 |
| 2005 | Santana Moss, Wash. | 26 | 5 | 1,432 | 9 |
| 2010 | Greg Jennings, G.B. | 26 | 5 | 1,265 | 12 |
| 2009 | Miles Austin, Dall. | 25 | 4 | 1,320 | 11 |
| 2007 | Chad Johnson, Cin. | 29 | 7 | 1,440 | 8 |
| 2013 | Alshon Jeffery, Chi. | 23 | 2 | 1,421 | 7 |
| 2004 | Drew Bennett, Tenn. | 26 | 4 | 1,247 | 11 |
| 2013 | Eric Decker, Den. | 26 | 4 | 1,288 | 11 |
| 1999 | Marcus Robinson, Chi. | 24 | 3 | 1,400 | 9 |
| 2014 | Jeremy Maclin, Phil. | 26 | 6 | 1,318 | 10 |
| 2015 | Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 26 | 5 | 1,069 | 14 |
| 1998 | Eric Moulds, Buff. | 25 | 3 | 1,368 | 9 |
| 2010 | Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 24 | 2 | 1,257 | 10 |
| 2012 | Vincent Jackson, T.B. | 29 | 8 | 1,384 | 8 |
| 2007 | T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin. | 29 | 7 | 1,143 | 12 |
| 2000 | Ed McCaffrey, Den. | 32 | 10 | 1,317 | 9 |
| 2005 | Joey Galloway, T.B. | 33 | 11 | 1,331 | 9 |
| 2005 | Chris Chambers, Mia. | 27 | 5 | 1,118 | 11 |
| 2007 | Marques Colston, N.O. | 24 | 2 | 1,202 | 11 |
| 1996 | Irving Fryar, Phil. | 33 | 13 | 1,195 | 11 |
| 2011 | Percy Harvin, Minn. | 23 | 3 | 967 | 9 |
| 1997 | Yancey Thigpen, Pitt. | 28 | 7 | 1,398 | 7 |
| 2002 | Amani Toomer, NYG | 27 | 7 | 1,343 | 8 |
| 1999 | Patrick Jeffers, Car. | 26 | 4 | 1,082 | 12 |
| 2003 | Derrick Mason, Tenn. | 29 | 7 | 1,303 | 8 |
| 2009 | Sidney Rice, Minn. | 22 | 3 | 1,312 | 8 |
| 2006 | Donald Driver, G.B. | 31 | 8 | 1,295 | 8 |
| 1998 | Keyshawn Johnson, NYJ | 26 | 3 | 1,131 | 11 |
| 2014 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 24 | 3 | 1,345 | 7 |
| 2002 | Peerless Price, Buff. | 25 | 4 | 1,252 | 9 |
| 1999 | Germane Crowell, Det. | 22 | 2 | 1,338 | 7 |
| 2006 | Lee Evans, Buff. | 25 | 3 | 1,292 | 8 |
| 2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 21 | 1 | 1,051 | 12 |
| 2002 | Plaxico Burress, Pitt. | 25 | 3 | 1,325 | 7 |
| 1999 | Michael Westbrook, Wash. | 27 | 5 | 1,191 | 9 |
| 1996 | Jake Reed, Minn. | 28 | 6 | 1,320 | 7 |
| 2006 | Roy Williams, Det. | 24 | 3 | 1,310 | 7 |
| 2003 | Keenan McCardell, T.B. | 33 | 12 | 1,174 | 9 |
| 2010 | Hakeem Nicks, NYG | 22 | 2 | 1,052 | 11 |
| 2001 | Troy Brown, N.E. | 30 | 9 | 1,199 | 7 |
| 2015 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 21 | 2 | 1,138 | 9 |
| 2008 | Antonio Bryant, T.B. | 27 | 7 | 1,248 | 7 |
| 2003 | Darrell Jackson, Sea. | 24 | 4 | 1,137 | 9 |
| 2004 | Brandon Stokley, Ind. | 28 | 6 | 1,077 | 10 |
| 2004 | Nate Burleson, Minn. | 23 | 2 | 1,006 | 10 |
| 2010 | Stevie Johnson, Buff. | 24 | 3 | 1,073 | 10 |
| 2013 | Pierre Garcon, Wash. | 27 | 6 | 1,346 | 5 |
| 2012 | Michael Crabtree, S.F. | 24 | 4 | 1,105 | 9 |
| 2015 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 22 | 2 | 1,157 | 6 |
| 2005 | Terry Glenn, Dall. | 31 | 10 | 975 | 11 |
| 2004 | Michael Clayton, T.B. | 21 | 1 | 1,193 | 7 |
| 2009 | Steve Smith, NYG | 24 | 3 | 1,220 | 7 |
| 2001 | Kevin Johnson, Clev. | 25 | 3 | 1,097 | 9 |
| 2015 | Allen Hurns, Jac. | 23 | 2 | 1,031 | 10 |
| 2010 | Mike Williams, T.B. | 23 | 1 | 964 | 11 |
| 2012 | James Jones, G.B. | 28 | 6 | 784 | 14 |
| 2002 | Laveranues Coles, NYJ | 24 | 3 | 1,264 | 5 |
| 2014 | Golden Tate, Det. | 26 | 5 | 1,331 | 4 |
| 2004 | Eddie Kennison, K.C. | 31 | 9 | 1,086 | 8 |