Should you concentrate on drafting players from good teams? Are they more likely to put up big numbers. It’s an issue we’ve been kicking around the last few days with running backs and wide receivers. Today: quarterbacks.
With each of these positions, I’ve taken the top 100 players of the last 10 years – the top 10 guys from each of those seasons. Then we can look at the win-loss records for each team to determine how often somebody puts up big numbers even while the team around him is struggling.
Logically, it makes sense for the good players to come from winning teams. If a quarterback throws 45 touchdowns, for example, you have to figure that team would win double-digit games. And if a quarterback threw only 14 touchdowns and averaged only 220 passing yards, how on earth would that team every win?
For most of us (I put myself in this group) we tend to think this correlation is strongest with running backs. Always be wary of a running back on a lousy team, because when they fall behind they’ll have to move away from the run and go into catch-up mode. Andy pointed out that the pass-catching running backs like Matt Forte can be exceptions to this rule, since those cheap dumpoff catches tend to come when the team is behind.
But after looking at the quarterback position, the win-loss dynamic doesn’t grade out super favorably for running backs. That is, it’s actually been stronger for quarterbacks and wide receivers.
With quarterbacks, of the top 100, 65 came from teams that finished the year with winning records. That’s more than wide receivers (62) or running backs (51). If you want to make it .500 or above, then the totals run 79-77-72, with quarterbacks and wide receivers the highest. (Note that the running back numbers are slightly higher than what I stated before; I found a hiccup in the preparation of this data.)
Looking at it from the other way, only 21 of the 100 top-10 quarterbacks of the last 10 years have come from teams with losing records. That beats wide receivers (23) and running backs (28).
| TOP 100 QUARTERBACKS OF LAST 10 YEARS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pass | TDP | Run | TD | W-L |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 5,477 | 55 | -31 | 1 | (13-3) |
| 2011 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 5,476 | 46 | 86 | 1 | (13-3) |
| 2007 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 4,806 | 50 | 98 | 2 | (16-0) |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4,643 | 45 | 257 | 3 | (15-1) |
| 2015 | Cam Newton, Car. | 3,837 | 35 | 636 | 10 | (15-1) |
| 2011 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 5,235 | 39 | 109 | 3 | (13-3) |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 4,051 | 21 | 706 | 14 | (6-10) |
| 2014 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 4,761 | 40 | 273 | 3 | (11-5) |
| 2012 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 5,177 | 43 | 5 | 1 | (7-9) |
| 2013 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 5,162 | 39 | 52 | 3 | (11-5) |
| 2011 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 5,038 | 41 | 78 | 0 | (10-6) |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4,381 | 38 | 269 | 2 | (12-4) |
| 2012 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4,295 | 39 | 259 | 2 | (11-5) |
| 2009 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4,434 | 30 | 316 | 5 | (11-5) |
| 2015 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 4,428 | 35 | 310 | 2 | (5-11) |
| 2015 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 4,770 | 36 | 53 | 3 | (12-4) |
| 2012 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 4,827 | 34 | 32 | 4 | (12-4) |
| 2015 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 4,024 | 34 | 553 | 1 | (10-6) |
| 2014 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 4,727 | 39 | -24 | 0 | (12-4) |
| 2014 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 4,952 | 33 | 68 | 1 | (7-9) |
| 2012 | Cam Newton, Car. | 3,869 | 19 | 741 | 8 | (7-9) |
| 2008 | • Drew Brees, N.O. | 5,069 | 34 | -1 | 0 | (8-8) |
| 2014 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 4,952 | 32 | 27 | 0 | (11-5) |
| 2012 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 4,719 | 32 | 141 | 1 | (13-3) |
| 2012 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 4,659 | 37 | 6 | 0 | (13-3) |
| 2015 | Carson Palmer, Ariz. | 4,671 | 35 | 24 | 1 | (13-3) |
| 2007 | Tony Romo, Dall. | 4,211 | 36 | 129 | 2 | (13-3) |
| 2015 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 4,870 | 32 | 14 | 1 | (7-9) |
| 2013 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 4,293 | 33 | 183 | 2 | (11-5) |
| 2014 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 3,475 | 20 | 849 | 6 | (12-4) |
| 2006 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 4,397 | 31 | 36 | 4 | (12-4) |
| 2012 | • Tony Romo, Dall. | 4,903 | 28 | 49 | 1 | (8-8) |
| 2013 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 4,650 | 29 | 69 | 2 | (7-9) |
| 2009 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 4,388 | 34 | 33 | 2 | (13-3) |
| 2011 | Eli Manning, NYG | 4,933 | 29 | 15 | 1 | (9-7) |
| 2010 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 4,700 | 33 | 18 | 0 | (10-6) |
| 2015 | Eli Manning, NYG | 4,436 | 35 | 61 | 0 | (6-10) |
| 2010 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 3,922 | 28 | 356 | 4 | (10-6) |
| 2012 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 4,967 | 20 | 126 | 4 | (4-12) |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 4,374 | 23 | 255 | 5 | (11-5) |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 3,200 | 20 | 815 | 7 | (10-6) |
| 2015 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 3,821 | 31 | 344 | 1 | (10-6) |
| 2014 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 4,694 | 28 | 145 | 0 | (6-10) |
| 2015 | Kirk Cousins, Wash. | 4,166 | 29 | 48 | 5 | (9-7) |
| 2015 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 4,262 | 32 | 159 | 1 | (7-9) |
| 2010 | Philip Rivers, S.D. | 4,710 | 30 | 52 | 0 | (9-7) |
| 2010 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 4,620 | 33 | -3 | 0 | (11-5) |
| 2008 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4,038 | 28 | 207 | 4 | (6-10) |
| 2008 | • Jay Cutler, Den. | 4,526 | 25 | 200 | 2 | (8-8) |
| 2009 | Matt Schaub, Hou. | 4,770 | 29 | 57 | 0 | (9-7) |
| 2013 | Cam Newton, Car. | 3,379 | 24 | 585 | 6 | (12-4) |
| 2013 | Philip Rivers, S.D. | 4,478 | 32 | 72 | 0 | (9-7) |
| 2010 | Michael Vick, Phil. | 3,018 | 21 | 676 | 9 | (10-6) |
| 2009 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 4,500 | 33 | -13 | 0 | (14-2) |
| 2013 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 3,822 | 23 | 377 | 4 | (11-5) |
| 2011 | • Philip Rivers, S.D. | 4,624 | 27 | 36 | 1 | (8-8) |
| 2014 | Eli Manning, NYG | 4,410 | 30 | 31 | 1 | (6-10) |
| 2008 | Kurt Warner, Ariz. | 4,583 | 30 | -2 | 0 | (9-7) |
| 2008 | • Philip Rivers, S.D. | 4,009 | 34 | 84 | 0 | (8-8) |
| 2014 | Philip Rivers, S.D. | 4,286 | 31 | 102 | 0 | (9-7) |
| 2010 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 3,900 | 36 | 30 | 1 | (14-2) |
| 2014 | • Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 4,045 | 27 | 311 | 1 | (8-8) |
| 2007 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 4,040 | 31 | -5 | 3 | (13-3) |
| 2011 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 4,177 | 29 | 84 | 2 | (10-6) |
| 2009 | Tony Romo, Dall. | 4,483 | 26 | 105 | 1 | (11-5) |
| 2007 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 4,423 | 28 | 52 | 1 | (7-9) |
| 2009 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 4,398 | 28 | 44 | 1 | (10-6) |
| 2011 | • Tony Romo, Dall. | 4,184 | 31 | 46 | 1 | (8-8) |
| 2009 | Brett Favre, Minn. | 4,202 | 33 | 7 | 0 | (12-4) |
| 2013 | • Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 4,261 | 28 | 99 | 1 | (8-8) |
| 2009 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 4,328 | 26 | 82 | 2 | (9-7) |
| 2009 | Philip Rivers, S.D. | 4,254 | 28 | 50 | 1 | (13-3) |
| 2013 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 4,515 | 26 | 55 | 0 | (4-12) |
| 2007 | Derek Anderson, Cle. | 3,787 | 29 | 70 | 3 | (10-6) |
| 2006 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 4,418 | 26 | 32 | 0 | (10-6) |
| 2013 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 3,357 | 26 | 539 | 1 | (13-3) |
| 2010 | Eli Manning, NYG | 4,002 | 31 | 70 | 0 | (10-6) |
| 2011 | • Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 3,474 | 26 | 103 | 6 | (8-8) |
| 2006 | Jon Kitna, Det. | 4,208 | 21 | 156 | 2 | (3-13) |
| 2007 | Brett Favre, G.B. | 4,155 | 28 | 12 | 0 | (13-3) |
| 2007 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 3,154 | 32 | 204 | 2 | (10-6) |
| 2006 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 2,474 | 20 | 1,039 | 2 | (7-9) |
| 2010 | Matt Schaub, Hou. | 4,370 | 24 | 28 | 0 | (6-10) |
| 2007 | Matt Hasselbeck, Sea. | 3,966 | 28 | 89 | 0 | (10-6) |
| 2009 | Jay Cutler, Chi. | 3,666 | 27 | 173 | 1 | (7-9) |
| 2008 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 4,002 | 27 | 21 | 1 | (12-4) |
| 2006 | • Marc Bulger, St.L. | 4,301 | 24 | 44 | 0 | (8-8) |
| 2006 | • Carson Palmer, Cin. | 4,035 | 28 | 37 | 0 | (8-8) |
| 2008 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 3,916 | 23 | 147 | 2 | (9-6-1) |
| 2010 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 3,705 | 28 | 122 | 0 | (13-3) |
| 2008 | Matt Cassel, N.E. | 3,693 | 21 | 270 | 2 | (11-5) |
| 2007 | Carson Palmer, Cin. | 4,131 | 26 | 10 | 0 | (7-9) |
| 2010 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 3,451 | 25 | 364 | 0 | (10-6) |
| 2006 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 3,529 | 24 | 102 | 0 | (12-4) |
| 2007 | • Kurt Warner, Ariz. | 3,417 | 27 | 15 | 1 | (8-8) |
| 2008 | David Garrard, Jac. | 3,620 | 15 | 322 | 2 | (5-11) |
| 2008 | Tony Romo, Dall. | 3,448 | 26 | 41 | 0 | (9-7) |
| 2006 | • Brett Favre, G.B. | 3,885 | 18 | 29 | 1 | (8-8) |
| 2006 | • Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 3,513 | 18 | 98 | 2 | (8-8) |
| 2006 | Philip Rivers, S.D. | 3,388 | 22 | 49 | 0 | (14-2) |
Somebody somewhere along the line – I think it was trusty Bill Rehor – said something along the lines of being concerned about really bad teams, rather than just teams that happen to finish perhaps 7-9, which can be just a missed field goal away from .500. So I have pulled out all players on teams finishing with fewer than 6 wins.
The Jaguars were the stars last year in this category, with Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson piling up big numbers in a lot of lost causes.
On this front, wide receivers have had more success putting up good numbers even while their team wasn’t winning games. Of these players (at all three positions) only eight were able to put up top-30 numbers (over the last 10 years), and five of those were wide receivers, including three in the top 15. I see only two quarterbacks in the top 70. With running backs, just 3 in the top 5.
Here are those players. With this group, the “Rk” number you see – the “Rank” – is where they rank out of the 100 players at their positions. 2013 Josh Gordon, for example, put up the 10th-best wide receiver numbers of the last 10 years.
| TOP-100 PLAYERS ON REALLY BAD TEAMS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Year | Pos | Player | W-L |
| 10 | 2013 | WR | Josh Gordon, Clev. | (4-12) |
| 12 | 2012 | WR | Calvin Johnson, Det. | (4-12) |
| 15 | 2015 | QB | • Blake Bortles, Jac. | (5-11) |
| 15 | 2015 | WR | Allen Robinson, Jac. | (5-11) |
| 25 | 2011 | RB | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | (5-11) |
| 26 | 2010 | WR | Brandon Lloyd, Den. | (4-12) |
| 30 | 2008 | WR | Calvin Johnson, Det. | (0-16) |
| 30 | 2014 | RB | Matt Forte, Chi. | (5-11) |
| 35 | 2010 | RB | Peyton Hillis, Cle. | (5-11) |
| 39 | 2012 | QB | • Matthew Stafford, Det. | (4-12) |
| 56 | 2008 | RB | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | (5-11) |
| 66 | 2011 | WR | Percy Harvin, Minn. | (3-13) |
| 71 | 2012 | RB | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | (2-14) |
| 72 | 2013 | RB | Adrian Peterson, Min. | (5-10-1) |
| 73 | 2013 | QB | • Matt Ryan, Atl. | (4-12) |
| 77 | 2012 | RB | Trent Richardson, Cle. | (5-11) |
| 79 | 2006 | QB | • Jon Kitna, Det. | (3-13) |
| 81 | 2009 | RB | Steven Jackson, St.L. | (1-15) |
| 85 | 2007 | RB | Willis McGahee, Balt. | (5-11) |
| 90 | 2006 | WR | Roy Williams, Det. | (3-13) |
| 90 | 2007 | RB | Frank Gore, S.F. | (5-11) |
| 92 | 2011 | RB | Adrian Peterson, Min. | (3-13) |
| 96 | 2008 | QB | • David Garrard, Jac. | (5-11) |
| 99 | 2010 | WR | Stevie Johnson, Buff. | (4-12) |