A couple of readers have asked about the forecast of all 256 regular season games. I haven’t had a chance to do that yet. I will post that on Wednesday or Thursday (I’m working on the Week 1 forecasts right now). But I can offer a general sense of what I think of each team. We’ve seen the preseason games, tracked the developments and made note of the various injuries and roster cuts.
In a rough sense (setting schedules aside) I would order the 32 teams this way:
IAN'S POWER RANKINGS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Carolina | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 |
New England | 11 | 4 | 1 | .719 |
Seattle | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 |
Houston | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 |
Green Bay | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 |
Arizona | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 |
Washington | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
Pittsburgh | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Denver | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Cincinnati | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Minnesota | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Kansas City | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Dallas | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Baltimore | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Oakland | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
San Diego | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Jacksonville | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Tennessee | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
Tampa Bay | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
NY Jets | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
NY Giants | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
New Orleans | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
Indianapolis | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
Buffalo | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
Miami | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Detroit | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Atlanta | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Los Angeles | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
Chicago | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
San Francisco | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 |
Philadelphia | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 |
Cleveland | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 |
We can then take those wins and losses, plug them in the 2016 schedule, and make a guess at which team might be affected by strength of schedule. According to my mix of fact and fiction, Dallas, Seattle, Washington and Green Bay will play the easiest schedules.
The Raiders, 49ers, Browns and Broncos, I think, will play the hardest schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-17) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Win | Loss | Tie | Pct |
Dallas | 113 | 138 | 5 | .451 |
Seattle | 117 | 134 | 5 | .467 |
Washington | 117 | 134 | 5 | .467 |
Green Bay | 117 | 133 | 6 | .469 |
NY Giants | 119 | 132 | 5 | .475 |
Miami | 120 | 131 | 5 | .479 |
Arizona | 122 | 132 | 2 | .480 |
Pittsburgh | 121 | 131 | 4 | .480 |
Detroit | 121 | 130 | 5 | .482 |
Baltimore | 121 | 128 | 7 | .486 |
New England | 121 | 128 | 7 | .486 |
Tennessee | 120 | 127 | 9 | .486 |
Chicago | 123 | 128 | 5 | .490 |
Carolina | 124 | 127 | 5 | .494 |
Cincinnati | 124 | 126 | 6 | .496 |
Minnesota | 124 | 124 | 8 | .500 |
New Orleans | 127 | 124 | 5 | .506 |
NY Jets | 126 | 123 | 7 | .506 |
San Diego | 126 | 123 | 7 | .506 |
Buffalo | 126 | 122 | 8 | .508 |
Houston | 127 | 122 | 7 | .510 |
Jacksonville | 127 | 122 | 7 | .510 |
Tampa Bay | 128 | 122 | 6 | .512 |
Philadelphia | 129 | 121 | 6 | .516 |
Atlanta | 131 | 121 | 4 | .520 |
Los Angeles | 130 | 120 | 6 | .520 |
Indianapolis | 129 | 119 | 8 | .520 |
Kansas City | 131 | 117 | 8 | .527 |
Denver | 134 | 116 | 6 | .535 |
Cleveland | 134 | 115 | 7 | .537 |
San Francisco | 135 | 115 | 6 | .539 |
Oakland | 136 | 115 | 5 | .541 |
Most fantasy leagues, of course, don’t use Week 17, so we can also re-work the numbers with those games removed. If you go that route, the Dolphins and Giants move up into a tie for first with the Cowboys. The bottom 4 teams are the same.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-16) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Win | Loss | Tie | Pct |
Miami | 109 | 127 | 4 | .463 |
Dallas | 109 | 126 | 5 | .465 |
NY Giants | 109 | 126 | 5 | .465 |
Washington | 110 | 125 | 5 | .469 |
Detroit | 111 | 125 | 4 | .471 |
Green Bay | 111 | 124 | 5 | .473 |
Tennessee | 110 | 122 | 8 | .475 |
Baltimore | 112 | 122 | 6 | .479 |
Seattle | 113 | 122 | 5 | .481 |
Chicago | 114 | 121 | 5 | .485 |
Arizona | 116 | 122 | 2 | .488 |
New England | 115 | 119 | 6 | .492 |
Cincinnati | 115 | 119 | 6 | .492 |
Pittsburgh | 117 | 119 | 4 | .496 |
Tampa Bay | 116 | 118 | 6 | .496 |
Carolina | 117 | 118 | 5 | .498 |
San Diego | 117 | 116 | 7 | .502 |
NY Jets | 119 | 114 | 7 | .510 |
Los Angeles | 120 | 115 | 5 | .510 |
New Orleans | 121 | 115 | 4 | .513 |
Buffalo | 119 | 113 | 8 | .513 |
Philadelphia | 120 | 114 | 6 | .513 |
Minnesota | 120 | 113 | 7 | .515 |
Houston | 120 | 113 | 7 | .515 |
Jacksonville | 120 | 113 | 7 | .515 |
Indianapolis | 121 | 111 | 8 | .521 |
Atlanta | 124 | 112 | 4 | .525 |
Kansas City | 123 | 109 | 8 | .529 |
San Francisco | 124 | 110 | 6 | .529 |
Cleveland | 125 | 109 | 6 | .533 |
Denver | 126 | 109 | 5 | .535 |
Oakland | 127 | 109 | 4 | .538 |
As usual with this kind of thing, be sure to let me know where you think I've gone wrong. That is, which projected win-loss record is the most different from what you would expect?
—Ian Allan