I posted the poll question earlier in the week, asking which offense would score the fewest touchdowns this year. The 49ers, I was surprised, finished in first (well, last). To me that won’t happen, given Chip Kelly’s ability to run an up-tempo offense and construct a viable running game.
But if you look at the strength of schedule charts, they support the idea that San Francisco will struggle. Their 16 games are against teams that allowed an average of 20.3 points per game last year – over a point (per game) fewer than any other schedule in the last. Hardest schedule against the run? 49ers. Hardest schedule against the pass? 49ers.
So maybe the readers are onto something on this one. I don’t personally agree. Given the coach and his system, I think they’ll outscore at least 3-4 other teams. The Eagles, Rams and Bears come to mind as candidates. But I will agree that scheduling could be a factor.
I am re-printing all of the strength of schedule charts below. The SOS chart on page 169 of the magazine, as I pointed out two weeks ago, is messed up. I somehow crossed some wires when working with the data relating to the Rams moving from St. Louis to Los Angeles. Those numbers are all off, and that fouled up the entire thing. Sorry. The corrected numbers appear below.
Starting with the basic chart (using wins and losses). It shows the Bengals, Titans and Packers projecting to play the league’s easiest schedules. The Saints, Falcons, Seahawks and Rams on paper should play the hardest schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 1-17) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T |
Cincinnati | 115 | 141 | .449 |
Tennessee | 116 | 140 | .453 |
Green Bay | 117 | 139 | .457 |
Chicago | 118 | 138 | .461 |
NY Giants | 118 | 138 | .461 |
Pittsburgh | 118 | 122 | .461 |
Detroit | 119 | 137 | .465 |
Dallas | 120 | 136 | .469 |
Philadelphia | 120 | 136 | .469 |
Jacksonville | 121 | 135 | .473 |
Indianapolis | 122 | 134 | .477 |
Cleveland | 123 | 133 | .480 |
Washington | 123 | 133 | .480 |
Baltimore | 124 | 132 | .484 |
Houston | 124 | 132 | .484 |
Minnesota | 125 | 131 | .488 |
Miami | 127 | 129 | .496 |
Denver | 129 | 127 | .504 |
San Diego | 130 | 126 | .508 |
Carolina | 131 | 125 | .512 |
Buffalo | 133 | 123 | .520 |
Kansas City | 133 | 123 | .520 |
Oakland | 133 | 123 | .520 |
New England | 134 | 122 | .523 |
Arizona | 135 | 121 | .527 |
San Francisco | 135 | 105 | .527 |
NY Jets | 136 | 120 | .531 |
Tampa Bay | 139 | 117 | .543 |
Los Angeles | 140 | 116 | .547 |
Seattle | 140 | 116 | .547 |
Atlanta | 142 | 114 | .555 |
New Orleans | 143 | 113 | .559 |
Some prefer to look not as wins and losses but defenses – points scored.
Based on how defenses played last year, you would expect the Cowboys will see the most soft defenses. Four other teams are a half point back, tying at 23.7 points per game, on average –Minnesota, Washington, Chicago, Detroit.
The 49ers project to play by far the league’s hardest schedule (in terms of defenses), coming in at 20.3 points per game on average – over a point below everyone else. The Patriots and Steelers tie for next-to-last.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS | |
---|---|
Team | Avg |
Dallas | 24.2 |
Minnesota | 23.7 |
Washington | 23.7 |
Chicago | 23.7 |
Detroit | 23.7 |
Tennessee | 23.6 |
Cincinnati | 23.6 |
Green Bay | 23.6 |
NY Giants | 23.5 |
Houston | 23.3 |
San Diego | 23.1 |
Baltimore | 23.1 |
Denver | 23.0 |
Kansas City | 23.0 |
Philadelphia | 22.9 |
Jacksonville | 22.9 |
Carolina | 22.8 |
Atlanta | 22.8 |
Indianapolis | 22.7 |
Cleveland | 22.6 |
Los Angeles | 22.4 |
Tampa Bay | 22.3 |
Oakland | 22.3 |
Seattle | 22.2 |
Miami | 22.1 |
Buffalo | 22.0 |
New Orleans | 21.8 |
Arizona | 21.8 |
NY Jets | 21.7 |
Pittsburgh | 21.4 |
New England | 21.4 |
San Francisco | 20.3 |
Getting more specific, here are the rushing projections for the upcoming season. If defenses play just the way they did last year, Chicago, Minnesota and Washington will see the easiest run schedules. That’s using 1 point for every 10 rushing yards, and 6 points for each rushing touchdown. Figures are of the per-game variety.
The 49ers, Patriots and Steelers project to see the hardest run defenses.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
Chicago | 116 | .82 | 16.5 |
Minnesota | 114 | .79 | 16.1 |
Washington | 116 | .73 | 16.0 |
Green Bay | 113 | .78 | 16.0 |
Tennessee | 113 | .79 | 16.0 |
Detroit | 118 | .70 | 15.9 |
Dallas | 117 | .71 | 15.9 |
NY Giants | 117 | .68 | 15.8 |
Philadelphia | 112 | .76 | 15.8 |
Tampa Bay | 107 | .79 | 15.5 |
Carolina | 108 | .77 | 15.4 |
Houston | 109 | .74 | 15.4 |
Jacksonville | 110 | .71 | 15.3 |
Denver | 107 | .75 | 15.2 |
Cincinnati | 112 | .67 | 15.2 |
Los Angeles | 104 | .77 | 15.1 |
Seattle | 109 | .70 | 15.1 |
Atlanta | 107 | .72 | 15.1 |
Arizona | 108 | .70 | 15.0 |
San Diego | 106 | .73 | 15.0 |
New Orleans | 102 | .79 | 14.9 |
Oakland | 104 | .74 | 14.8 |
Baltimore | 109 | .64 | 14.8 |
Indianapolis | 105 | .68 | 14.6 |
NY Jets | 107 | .64 | 14.6 |
Kansas City | 102 | .71 | 14.5 |
Cleveland | 106 | .64 | 14.5 |
Miami | 106 | .64 | 14.4 |
Buffalo | 104 | .62 | 14.1 |
Pittsburgh | 104 | .60 | 14.0 |
New England | 103 | .61 | 13.9 |
San Francisco | 96 | .63 | 13.4 |
Finally, I offer the passing projections. The Cowboys, Ravens and Bengals project to see the softest pass defenses. (This is built off 1 point for every 10 passing yards, plus 6 points for each TD pass.)
The 49ers, Saints and Steelers project to see the hardest pass defenses. That’s notable, with Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger having averaged more passing yards per game than any other quarterbacks over the last two years.
With six games against the Seahawks, Cardinals and Rams, San Francisco took a schedule beating all along – last in points, rushing and passing.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
Dallas | 269 | 1.89 | 38.2 |
Baltimore | 271 | 1.75 | 37.6 |
Cincinnati | 265 | 1.82 | 37.5 |
NY Giants | 264 | 1.79 | 37.1 |
Detroit | 261 | 1.77 | 36.7 |
Cleveland | 265 | 1.68 | 36.6 |
Washington | 263 | 1.71 | 36.6 |
Chicago | 261 | 1.68 | 36.2 |
Minnesota | 257 | 1.71 | 36.0 |
Kansas City | 260 | 1.66 | 36.0 |
Philadelphia | 261 | 1.63 | 35.8 |
Green Bay | 256 | 1.70 | 35.8 |
San Diego | 256 | 1.70 | 35.8 |
Denver | 260 | 1.63 | 35.8 |
NY Jets | 260 | 1.62 | 35.8 |
Atlanta | 259 | 1.64 | 35.8 |
Seattle | 263 | 1.58 | 35.7 |
Miami | 261 | 1.61 | 35.7 |
Buffalo | 262 | 1.58 | 35.7 |
Carolina | 258 | 1.64 | 35.7 |
Tennessee | 256 | 1.68 | 35.6 |
Houston | 257 | 1.64 | 35.6 |
Los Angeles | 257 | 1.57 | 35.2 |
Arizona | 259 | 1.55 | 35.2 |
Indianapolis | 253 | 1.64 | 35.2 |
New England | 255 | 1.59 | 35.0 |
Jacksonville | 249 | 1.67 | 34.9 |
Tampa Bay | 255 | 1.53 | 34.7 |
Oakland | 250 | 1.57 | 34.4 |
Pittsburgh | 247 | 1.62 | 34.4 |
New Orleans | 254 | 1.45 | 34.1 |
San Francisco | 236 | 1.46 | 32.3 |
—Ian Allan