It’s early. Let’s not get too hung up on what happened last year. Teams change. New coaches, new players, new systems and whatnot. But we can look at the past as a guide when trying to predict what might occur in Week 1.
Below is an averaging chart. It shows touchdowns for offenses last year (in the 16 regular season games) and then averages them against what occurred with the defenses.
Looking at these figures (and again, teams are now different), The Raiders have the biggest number on the board. They scored 41 touchdowns last year, and they’re going against a defense that allowed 57, for a combined 98 touchdowns – the only matchup where the average is over 3 touchdowns per game.
The Seahawks, Saints, Packers and Panthers are the other highest totals. (Perhaps serves as a reminder for Carolina on Thursday night; while it’s a crappy matchup – on the road against a great defense – at some point you’ve got to draw the line and just put guys like Newton, Stewart, Olsen and Benjamin on the field).
Worst projected matchups are for the offenses of the 49ers, Dolphins, Broncos and Titans.
Many opinions are different in the Weekly that is flying out the door as we speak, but it’s a starting point in the discussion.
| OFFENSE / DEFENSE MATCHUP AVERAGES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense (run-pass-total) | Defense (run-pass-total) | Run | Pass | Total |
| Oakland (7-34-41) | New Orleans (12-45-57) | .59 | 2.47 | 3.06 |
| Seattle (10-34-44) | Miami (13-31-44) | .72 | 2.03 | 2.75 |
| New Orleans (16-32-48) | Oakland (12-25-37) | .88 | 1.78 | 2.66 |
| Carolina (19-35-55) | Denver (10-19-29) | .91 | 1.69 | 2.63 |
| Green Bay (8-31-40) | Jacksonville (15-29-44) | .72 | 1.88 | 2.63 |
| Arizona (16-35-51) | New England (8-24-32) | .75 | 1.84 | 2.59 |
| Detroit (7-33-40) | Indianapolis (14-29-43) | .66 | 1.94 | 2.59 |
| New England (14-36-50) | Arizona (9-24-33) | .72 | 1.88 | 2.59 |
| Philadelphia (15-23-38) | Cleveland (11-34-45) | .81 | 1.78 | 2.59 |
| Buffalo (19-23-42) | Baltimore (10-30-40) | .91 | 1.66 | 2.56 |
| Pittsburgh (16-26-42) | Washington (10-30-40) | .81 | 1.75 | 2.56 |
| Atlanta (13-21-35) | Tampa Bay (12-31-43) | .78 | 1.63 | 2.44 |
| Cincinnati (18-31-49) | NY Jets (4-25-29) | .69 | 1.75 | 2.44 |
| Indianapolis (6-26-32) | Detroit (18-28-46) | .75 | 1.69 | 2.44 |
| Kansas City (19-20-39) | San Diego (17-22-39) | 1.13 | 1.31 | 2.44 |
| Minnesota (18-14-32) | Tennessee (11-34-45) | .91 | 1.50 | 2.41 |
| NY Giants (5-36-41) | Dallas (16-19-35) | .66 | 1.72 | 2.38 |
| Houston (7-29-36) | Chicago (9-30-39) | .50 | 1.84 | 2.34 |
| Washington (9-30-39) | Pittsburgh (6-29-35) | .47 | 1.84 | 2.31 |
| Jacksonville (5-35-40) | Green Bay (13-20-33) | .56 | 1.72 | 2.28 |
| Tampa Bay (12-22-34) | Atlanta (20-19-39) | 1.00 | 1.28 | 2.28 |
| Cleveland (5-20-25) | Philadelphia (10-36-46) | .47 | 1.75 | 2.22 |
| Dallas (8-16-24) | NY Giants (15-31-46) | .72 | 1.47 | 2.19 |
| NY Jets (11-33-44) | Cincinnati (8-18-26) | .59 | 1.59 | 2.19 |
| Baltimore (8-21-29) | Buffalo (10-30-40) | .56 | 1.59 | 2.16 |
| Chicago (13-21-34) | Houston (10-24-34) | .72 | 1.41 | 2.13 |
| Los Angeles (16-11-27) | San Francisco (20-21-41) | 1.13 | 1.00 | 2.13 |
| San Diego (4-30-34) | Kansas City (7-25-32) | .34 | 1.72 | 2.06 |
| Tennessee (10-25-35) | Minnesota (7-24-31) | .53 | 1.53 | 2.06 |
| Denver (13-19-32) | Carolina (11-21-32) | .75 | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Miami (11-24-35) | Seattle (10-14-24) | .66 | 1.19 | 1.84 |
| San Francisco (7-16-23) | Los Angeles (7-21-28) | .44 | 1.16 | 1.59 |
—Ian Allan
