Fantasy News

September 18, 2016

Third-down backs

Do running backs catch more passes in losses?

Suppose you’re in a PPR league and you’ve got a pass-catching third-down back. Think Theo Riddick, Darren Sproles and Shane Vereen. Are you better starting those players when their teams should win (figuring there will be more scoring)? Or are you better playing them in expected losses (figuring there will be more dumpoff balls)?

I’ve always tended to favor playing for the cheap yards on dumpoff balls, but I figured I’d run the numbers.

For this one, I pulled out all running backs who caught 50-plus passes in 2014 or 2015. There are 13 of them. Only one player went for 50-plus in both seasons, and he did it for two different teams – Shane Vereen, with the Patriots and Giants. Then I collected the game-by-game stats for each guy.

Turns out these players were about 32 percent better in the games their teams lost. They averaged 1.1 more catches and 10 more receiving yards, and a few more touchdowns (about one every five games, versus only one every seven games).

If you look at the top 50 games by these running backs, they’re mostly in losses (which are tagged in bold).

TOP-50 RECEIVING GAMES BY RUNNING BACKS (2014-2015)
Player	Year	Opp	Result	No	Rec	TD	Points
Woodhead, S.D.	2015	OAK	L 29-37	11	75	2	30.5
Woodhead, S.D.	2015	MIA	W 30-14	6	50	3	29.0
Forte, Chi.	2014	@CAR	L 24-31	12	105	1	28.5
Vereen, N.E.	2014	NYJ	W 27-25	5	71	2	24.1
Bell, Pitt.	2014	NOR	L 32-35	8	159	0	23.9
Johnson, Clev.	2015	@SDG	L 27-30	9	85	1	23.5
Bell, Pitt.	2014	HOU	W 30-23	8	88	1	22.8
Vereen, NYG	2015	SFO	W 30-27	8	86	1	22.6
Jackson, Buff.	2014	SDG	L 10-22	8	78	1	21.8
Riddick, Det.	2015	ARI	L 17-42	10	53	1	21.3
Freeman, Atl.	2015	@SFO	L 16-17	8	67	1	20.7
Vereen, NYG	2015	@NOR	L 49-52	8	60	1	20.0
Woodhead, S.D.	2015	CHI	L 19-22	6	78	1	19.8
Freeman, Atl.	2015	@NOR	L 21-31	8	56	1	19.6
Vereen, NYG	2015	CAR	L 35-38	8	43	1	18.3
Jackson, Buff.	2014	@OAK	L 24-26	9	93	0	18.3
Forte, Chi.	2014	MIA	L 14-27	6	60	1	18.0
Ingram, N.O.	2015	@ARI	L 19-31	8	98	0	17.8
Forte, Chi.	2014	@ATL	W 27-13	10	77	0	17.7
Forte, Chi.	2014	@NWE	L 23-51	6	54	1	17.4
Riddick, Det.	2015	PHI	W 45-14	5	62	1	17.2
Bell, Pitt.	2014	@CIN	W 42-21	6	50	1	17.0
Forte, Chi.	2014	BUF	L 20-23	8	87	0	16.7
Sims, T.B.	2015	@CAR	L 10-38	9	74	0	16.4
Sims, T.B.	2015	CHI	L 21-26	3	72	1	16.2
Forte, Chi.	2014	DET	L 14-20	6	40	1	16.0
Vereen, NYG	2015	ATL	L 20-24	8	76	0	15.6
Freeman, Atl.	2015	@TAM	L 19-23	10	56	0	15.6
Forte, Chi.	2014	DAL	L 28-41	8	74	0	15.4
Bell, Pitt.	2014	BAL	W 43-23	5	38	1	14.8
Vereen, N.E.	2014	DEN	W 43-21	5	38	1	14.8
Bell, Pitt.	2014	CLE	W 30-27	6	88	0	14.8
Sproles, Phil.	2015	@ATL	L 24-26	7	76	0	14.6
Riddick, Det.	2015	DEN	L 12-24	8	66	0	14.6
Johnson, Clev.	2015	@STL	L 6-24	7	73	0	14.3
Bell, Pitt.	2014	CIN	W 27-17	6	80	0	14.0
Murray, Dall.	2014	@CHI	W 41-28	9	49	0	13.9
Jackson, Buff.	2014	@DEN	L 17-24	10	37	0	13.7
Riddick, Det.	2015	SFO	W 32-17	7	63	0	13.3
Woodhead, S.D.	2015	@OAK	L 20-23	8	53	0	13.3
Vereen, NYG	2015	PHI	L 30-35	6	72	0	13.2
Freeman, Atl.	2015	HOU	W 48-21	5	81	0	13.1
Woodhead, S.D.	2015	@DEN	L 20-27	8	51	0	13.1
Vereen, NYG	2015	@TAM	W 32-18	4	29	1	12.9
Vereen, N.E.	2014	DET	W 34-9	8	48	0	12.8
Jackson, Buff.	2014	@DET	W 17-14	7	58	0	12.8
Woodhead, S.D.	2015	@CIN	L 19-24	6	68	0	12.8
Sproles, Phil.	2015	TAM	L 17-45	3	38	1	12.8
Sproles, Phil.	2015	WAS	L 24-38	7	56	0	12.6
Sims, T.B.	2015	JAX	W 38-31	4	85	0	12.5

If you look at the 50 worst receiving games by the same players, their teams usually won those weeks.

If you want to play for a running back catching a half-dozen passes, it seems, the best strategy is to utilize them in games where they’ll fall behind.

WORST 50 RECEIVING GAMES BY SAME BACKS
Player	Year	Opp	Result	No	Rec	TD	Points
Murray, Dall.	2014	IND	W 42-7	0	0	0	.0
Vereen, NYG	2015	WAS	W 32-21	0	0	0	.0
Vereen, N.E.	2014	@MIN	W 30-7	0	0	0	.0
Johnson, Clev.	2015	TEN	W 28-14	0	0	0	.0
Vereen, NYG	2015	@BUF	W 24-10	0	0	0	.0
Freeman, Atl.	2015	IND	L 21-24	0	0	0	.0
Sproles, Phil.	2015	@WAS	L 20-23	0	0	0	.0
Johnson, Clev.	2015	@NYJ	L 10-31	0	0	0	.0
Murray, Dall.	2014	@PHI	W 38-27	1	3	0	1.3
Vereen, N.E.	2014	@BUF	W 37-22	1	3	0	1.3
Sproles, Phil.	2015	NYG	W 27-7	1	3	0	1.3
Murray, Dall.	2014	NYG	W 31-21	1	4	0	1.4
Jackson, Buff.	2014	@NWE	W 17-9	1	4	0	1.4
Sims, T.B.	2015	NYG	L 18-32	1	4	0	1.4
Murray, Dall.	2014	NOR	W 38-17	1	6	0	1.6
Vereen, NYG	2015	DAL	W 27-20	1	6	0	1.6
Murray, Dall.	2014	@TEN	W 26-10	1	6	0	1.6
Johnson, Clev.	2015	SFO	W 24-10	1	6	0	1.6
Vereen, NYG	2015	@PHI	L 7-27	1	6	0	1.6
Bell, Pitt.	2014	KAN	W 20-12	1	9	0	1.9
Woodhead, S.D.	2015	KAN	L 3-33	1	9	0	1.9
Sproles, Phil.	2015	NOR	W 39-17	1	10	0	2.0
Vereen, NYG	2015	@MIA	W 31-24	1	10	0	2.0
Vereen, N.E.	2014	MIA	W 41-13	1	12	0	2.2
Vereen, N.E.	2014	@NYJ	W 17-16	1	12	0	2.2
Sproles, Phil.	2015	@DAL	W 33-27	2	3	0	2.3
Sproles, Phil.	2015	BUF	W 23-20	2	4	0	2.4
Ingram, N.O.	2015	@IND	W 27-21	2	5	0	2.5
Vereen, NYG	2015	NYJ	L 20-23	2	7	0	2.7
Bell, Pitt.	2014	@CAR	W 37-19	2	10	0	3.0
Vereen, NYG	2015	NWE	L 26-27	2	12	0	3.2
Sims, T.B.	2015	DAL	W 10-6	2	13	0	3.3
Freeman, Atl.	2015	@TEN	W 10-7	2	14	0	3.4
Ingram, N.O.	2015	TAM	L 19-26	3	5	0	3.5
Vereen, N.E.	2014	@GNB	L 21-26	1	26	0	3.6
Sims, T.B.	2015	@WAS	L 30-31	2	17	0	3.7
Ingram, N.O.	2015	@PHI	L 17-39	2	17	0	3.7
Bell, Pitt.	2014	@TEN	W 27-24	2	18	0	3.8
Woodhead, S.D.	2015	@KAN	L 3-10	3	8	0	3.8
Ingram, N.O.	2015	ATL	W 31-21	3	10	0	4.0
Sims, T.B.	2015	ATL	W 23-19	2	21	0	4.1
Vereen, NYG	2015	@MIN	L 17-49	2	21	0	4.1
Forte, Chi.	2014	NOR	L 15-31	2	21	0	4.1
Murray, Dall.	2014	@NYG	W 31-28	2	22	0	4.2
Jackson, Buff.	2014	NYJ	W 38-3	3	13	0	4.3
Jackson, Buff.	2014	@CHI	W 23-20	3	13	0	4.3
Sims, T.B.	2015	TEN	L 14-42	2	23	0	4.3
Sims, T.B.	2015	@NOR	W 26-19	3	14	0	4.4
Vereen, N.E.	2014	BUF	L 9-17	3	14	0	4.4
Johnson, Clev.	2015	@KAN	L 13-17	3	15	0	4.5

—Ian Allan

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