ARIZONA (vs San Francisco)
At 3-4-1, Arizona needs to put together a little run, and Weeks 11-12 will be more telling -- at Minnesota and at Atlanta - but as a warmup it should win this one comfortably. The Cardinals have been a little disappointing, but they're at home against a remarkably bad opponent. The 49ers have lost seven in a row, allowing an average of 37 points in those games. Arizona beat them 33-21 back in Week 5, and that was with limited Drew Stanton filling in at quarterback. ... David Johnson looks like the clear favorite to be the most productive running back in the league this week. He's really good, and he's facing a defense that's historically bad against the run. The 49ers started the season by shutting down . . .
This report is taken from today's Week 10 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 18 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
Haven't ordered yet? BUY IT NOW! Already a subscriber? LOG IN!
. . . Todd Gurley back in Week 1. Since that time, they've allowed a 100-yard rusher seven games in a row. They're on pace to become the first defense in this century to allow over 3,000 rushing yards in a season -- 300 more than any other defense. In the earlier meeting, the 49ers held tough for about a half before wearing down, with Johnson finishing with 157 rushing yards and 2 TDs. Johnson also averages 51 receiving yards, so he's very much in play for over 200 total yards. The only worry is that Arizona should win this game very easily. When they're ahead by three scores in the middle of the third quarter, the temptation will be to reduce Johnson's workload, keeping him fresh for those more important upcoming games. Those in a bind at running back might want to think about Andre Ellington; he'll probably carry the ball more than Johnson in the fourth quarter of this game, perhaps busting loose for a long touchdown late. ... We'll go a little higher than usual on Carson Palmer. On the one hand, there's the fear he might not do enough. San Francisco is so awful against the run that many opponents don't bother passing against them. Remarkably, the 49ers are a top-10 pass defense in terms of yards -- 241 per game. Palmer averages 296 yards as a starter, but tough to envision him going for more than 270 against this defense. But at the same time, Palmer has thrown more than one touchdown in only one of his last five games, but he'll almost certainly finish with multiple touchdowns in this game. The 49ers have lost seven in a row, and they've allowed multiple touchdown passes in all of those games (in three of those games, they've allowed 3-plus). In most fantasy leagues, a touchdown pass is equal to 80 passing yards, so the inflated touchdown grade more than offsets any shortcomings in yards. Makes sense to rank Palmer higher than usual. ... Similarly, we'll rank the pass catchers higher than usual. That starts with Larry Fitzgerald, who's on pace to finish the season with 112 catches and 10 TDs anyway. He caught 6 passes for 81 yards and 2 TDs in the earlier San Francisco game, and that was with scatter-armed Drew Stanton filling in at quarterback. The sneaky receiver here is J.J. Nelson. He's been coming on recently, with a couple of big catches against the Seahawks and 9 catches and 2 TDs at Carolina. Bruce Arians has indicated that at least for now, he views Nelson as a more integral part of the offense than either Michael Floyd and John Brown, who have been plagued by injuries and inconsistency recently. <c"RGB(67,67,67)">"J.J. didn't step in," Arians said after the Carolina game. "That's his job right now, and somebody is going to have to take it back from him." We're putting Nelson higher than those others, and he grades out as a favorable Week 10 receiver, given the matchup. The 49ers have allowed multiple touchdowns to wide receivers in five straight games. ... The Cardinals don't have a viable tight end. Jermaine Gresham and Darren Fells will both play plenty, but they've combined for only 20 catches so far, with no touchdowns. ... Chandler Catanzaro has had a lousy season. He's missed three field goals and an extra point, and he's on pace to finish the season with only 86 points. He's probably not even on a roster in most fantasy leagues. But he'll almost certainly be a top-10 scoring kicker this week. San Francisco's defense just can't stop anyone right now. During their current seven-game losing streak, the 49ers have allowed 72 kicking points -- over 10 per game. ... The Cardinals Defense shows up higher than usual this week. Arizona has been a disappointment thus far, but the defense has generally done its job -- on pace for 42 sacks and 18 interceptions. The 49ers are starting Colin Kaepernick, and he has a tendency to indecisively hold the ball and take sacks. In the 11 games he's started the last two years, he's taken 36 sacks (albeit with average turnover numbers -- 7 interceptions and 3 lost fumbles). When Kaepernick last played in this stadium, he threw 4 interceptions, including a pair returned for touchdowns. The 49ers have lost 9 fumbles this year, 2nd-most in the league.