HOUSTON (vs Cincinnati)
The Texans have a new quarterback, and maybe that will give them a spark. But this should be a low-scoring game. Their offense has struggled all year (only four teams have scored fewer points), and Cincinnati's defense is above-average. The Bengals allowed 4 TDs at Dallas and New England, but they've allowed only 19 touchdowns in their last 10 other games ... about 2 per week. The Texans are 6-1 at home, but even in those games they've scored only 12 offensive touchdowns. ... Tom Savage looks like he'll be an upgrade over Brock Osweiler. He's got more confidence throwing the ball downfield. Savage passed for 260 yards in two and half quarters against Jacksonville, which is the most production they've had at ...
This report is taken from today's Week 16 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... that position all year. The Jaguars, keep in mind, rank 3rd in pass defense; those weren't cheap yards. So we're thinking he'll add 30-40 passing yards in a lot of their games, with an increase in touchdowns. But he's probably not a life saver or the long-term answer. Savage, recall, completed under 57 percent of his passes in the preseason. He doesn't have much mobility. And while he was in there for over a half against 2-win Jacksonville, they scored only one touchdown in that game. He'll presumably be more prepared this week, but Cincinnati is above-average against the pass. Only 11 teams have allowed fewer passing yards. The Bengals have allowed more than one touchdown pass in only three of their last 11 games, and all are quarterbacks who are a lot further along than Savage ... Brady, Cousins, Manning. About 240 yards and probably just one touchdown, we're figuring. ... We're ranking Lamar Miller higher than usual. The Texans would probably like to help Savage along by making heavier use of the running game, and this is a bottom-10 run defense they're going against. When the Bengals lost at Foxborough, the Patriots were spreading the field and passing the ball all over the place (running for only 79 yards). But Cincinnati has allowed over 120 rushing yards in each of its other six games on the road (2-4 in those games, with the only wins against the Jets and Browns). Miller is very much in play here as a 100-yard back. For the year he's averaged 77 rushing and 14 receiving yards, with 6 TDs. They'll mix in some other backs for a few touches ... Jonathan Grimes, Akeem Hunt, Alfred Blue. ... We're ranking DeAndre Hopkins higher than usual. With Savage at quarterback, there seems to be some confidence throwing to him. Hopkins saw 17 targets against Jacksonville, resulting in 8 catches and 87 yards. Hopkins was ordinary with Osweiler, averaging 49 yards in his previous 11 games, with 2 TDs. This quarterback switch could help make Hopkins a top-10 receiver in the final two weeks of the season. It should also help Will Fuller, though we can't back that up with target stats in the same way. Fuller caught 4 passes for 42 yards last week. He's got a lot of big-play speed, he looked remarkably good in the preseason and the first two games, and he's also returning kicks. ... C.J. Fiedorowicz should return this week after missing a game with a concussion. He'll probably be hurt by the quarterback switch. With Osweiler, he was catching a lot of check-down balls. Savage is more comfortable driving the ball downfield. So we're slotting him behind the two starting wide receivers, even though he's outperformed those guys in his last 10 games. ... Nick Novak looks like a top-5 kicker. Cincinnati has been only average defensively, and that's now a 5-8-1 team that potentially could show up flat. The Texans are in the thick of the AFC South race, and they tend to play much better at home, where they've kicked multiple field goals in every game. Novak averages 9.9 points at home, versus only 6.9 on the road. ... The Texans Defense looks below average. Andy Dalton has been sacked 37 times (almost 3 times per week), but Houston doesn't have much of a pass rush ... only two teams have fewer sacks. And interceptions don't look likely; Dalton has thrown only 7, while the Texans have only 9.