Where is Colin Kaepernick going to land (if anywhere)? He’s polarizing. Whatever team takes him on runs the risk of alienating some fans. But Kaepernick is good enough that he’ll land somewhere.
Seattle and Baltimore have both kicked around the possibility of signing him. Trevone Boykin has had some off-field problems and supposedly is struggling at camp; so maybe the Seahawks bring him in.
More likely, it will be a team with an injury at the position. When Joe Flacco was having some back problems, that triggered the Ravens to start looking into him. If Russell Wilson were to get hurt, the Seahawks probably would bring in Kaepernick.
But Kaepernick doesn’t fit with a lot of teams. He had success early in his career, when defenses were struggling to account for the zone-read, but that’s been kind of figured out. And when Kaepernick has been asked to be more of a conventional quarterback, he’s struggled.
He’s gone 3-16 as a starter the last two years. Among quarterbacks who’ve started at least half of the time, that’s the worst in the league.
Kaepernick has done a good job of taking care of the ball. He doesn’t force passes; he finished last season with 16 TDs versus only 4 interceptions – a nice ratio. But he has issues with accuracy and decision making. When blitzed, he’s tended to lock up and be caught holding the ball. Over the last three years, he’s been sacked on 10 percent of his pass plays. Among quarterbacks with at least 800 attempts, that’s the worst in the league.
| SACK PERCENTAGE (2014-2016) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Sack | Pct |
| Peyton Manning | 928 | 33 | 3.4% |
| Derek Carr | 1732 | 71 | 3.9% |
| Joe Flacco | 1639 | 68 | 4.0% |
| Eli Manning | 1817 | 76 | 4.0% |
| Kirk Cousins | 1353 | 57 | 4.0% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1586 | 70 | 4.2% |
| Drew Brees | 1959 | 87 | 4.3% |
| Tom Brady | 1638 | 74 | 4.3% |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1277 | 59 | 4.4% |
| Brian Hoyer | 1007 | 53 | 5.0% |
| Carson Palmer | 1358 | 74 | 5.2% |
| Matt Ryan | 1776 | 98 | 5.2% |
| Jameis Winston | 1102 | 62 | 5.3% |
| Andrew Luck | 1454 | 83 | 5.4% |
| Andy Dalton | 1430 | 82 | 5.4% |
| Sam Bradford | 1084 | 65 | 5.7% |
| Philip Rivers | 1809 | 112 | 5.8% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1702 | 109 | 6.0% |
| Matthew Stafford | 1788 | 126 | 6.6% |
| Jay Cutler | 1181 | 84 | 6.6% |
| Cam Newton | 1454 | 107 | 6.9% |
| Marcus Mariota | 821 | 61 | 6.9% |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1565 | 120 | 7.1% |
| Blake Bortles | 1706 | 140 | 7.6% |
| Alex Smith | 1423 | 118 | 7.7% |
| Russell Wilson | 1481 | 128 | 8.0% |
| Tyrod Taylor | 816 | 78 | 8.7% |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 849 | 83 | 8.9% |
| Colin Kaepernick | 1053 | 116 | 9.9% |
Kaepernick hasn’t hit on many downfield throws, and he tends to complete under 60 percent of his passes. Over the last three years, only three quarterbacks have averaged fewer yards per attempt. (And if you factor in sacks and yards lost on those plays, Kaepernick would rank last on this list.)
| AVERAGE PER ATTEMPT (2014-2016) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pct | Yards | Avg |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 66.5% | 12,709 | 8.01 |
| Matt Ryan | 67.3% | 14,229 | 8.01 |
| Kirk Cousins | 67.3% | 10,793 | 7.98 |
| Russell Wilson | 65.3% | 11,718 | 7.91 |
| Carson Palmer | 62.4% | 10,530 | 7.75 |
| Drew Brees | 69.2% | 15,030 | 7.67 |
| Marcus Mariota | 61.6% | 6,244 | 7.61 |
| Tom Brady | 65.1% | 12,433 | 7.59 |
| Andy Dalton | 64.9% | 10,854 | 7.59 |
| Peyton Manning | 63.9% | 6,976 | 7.52 |
| Andrew Luck | 61.1% | 10,882 | 7.48 |
| Philip Rivers | 64.4% | 13,464 | 7.44 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 62.6% | 6,058 | 7.42 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 64.0% | 12,630 | 7.42 |
| Jameis Winston | 59.6% | 8,132 | 7.38 |
| Brian Hoyer | 59.6% | 7,377 | 7.33 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 64.9% | 6,150 | 7.24 |
| Jay Cutler | 64.5% | 8,530 | 7.22 |
| Alex Smith | 65.9% | 10,253 | 7.21 |
| Cam Newton | 56.9% | 10,473 | 7.20 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 64.9% | 11,248 | 7.19 |
| Matthew Stafford | 64.3% | 12,846 | 7.18 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 59.5% | 9,098 | 7.12 |
| Eli Manning | 62.9% | 12,873 | 7.08 |
| Sam Bradford | 68.4% | 7,602 | 7.01 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 59.7% | 7,225 | 6.86 |
| Joe Flacco | 63.8% | 11,094 | 6.77 |
| Blake Bortles | 58.8% | 11,241 | 6.59 |
| Derek Carr | 60.9% | 11,194 | 6.46 |
So what we have, I think, is a fixer upper with a limited skill set. There were a couple of games last year where we saw flashes of the old Kaep – with him running and passing and having some success moving the offense. He had the Cardinals on the ropes in Arizona, and he played really well in shootout loss at Miami, passing for 296 yards and 3 TDs while also running for 113 yards.
But Kaepernick doesn’t fit all systems, and he’s not for everyone. It would take the right coach using him in the right way to get some success. Setting aside any concerns about distractions or angry ticket holders, I don’t think he’s one of the top 40 quarterbacks in the league right now. While he might be better than a few of those 40, I think most every team would much rather hold the rights to an unknown younger quarterback who might develop into something – teams would rather have Deshaun Watson, Mitchell Trubisky, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Carson Wentz and Jimmy Garoppolo. With DeShone Kizer supposedly playing well at camp in Cleveland, he’s another guy that many teams might prefer over even a baggage-free Kaepernick.
But Kaepernick is one of the top 50 quarterbacks on the planet, and I’m sure we’ll see him on a roster before October. If the right injury occurs, and Kaepernick could start some games this year.
—Ian Allan