It’s early; too soon to put anything in stone. But we’ve seen the general lay of the land with these teams now, and we can sketch out which teams will be standing at the end of the season.
This is an exercise of forecasting and looking at the schedules. You go through each of the 256 games, deciding on a winner, and then total up the results at the end.
The first 31 games, of course, are already in the books. For each of the remaining 225, I’ve given each team some portion of a win. If a game looks like a slam dunk – like the Jets at New England – I give the Patriots a 95 percent chance of winning. That is, if they played 20 times, I’m figuring New England would go 19-1 (which might be overly conservative). But that’s as high as I go, given the reality that injuries and turnovers occur.
If a game is too close to call – like Atlanta at Detroit this week – I just gave each team half of a win and move on. If a team is only a slight favorite (like Oakland at Washington on Sunday night) I gave the Raiders .55 of a win, and Washington the remaining .45 share.
After doing that for all of the games, I get the following win totals for each team …
| PROJECTED WINS | |
|---|---|
| Team | Wins |
| New England | 11.75 |
| Pittsburgh | 11.60 |
| Atlanta | 11.15 |
| Seattle | 11.10 |
| Kansas City | 10.90 |
| Green Bay | 10.65 |
| Denver | 10.55 |
| Tennessee | 10.45 |
| Oakland | 10.05 |
| Detroit | 9.55 |
| Baltimore | 9.50 |
| Dallas | 9.30 |
| Philadelphia | 9.25 |
| Minnesota | 9.05 |
| Carolina | 8.95 |
| Tampa Bay | 8.80 |
| Miami | 8.35 |
| Jacksonville | 6.90 |
| Washington | 6.85 |
| Arizona | 6.85 |
| Houston | 6.55 |
| San Francisco | 6.50 |
| Buffalo | 6.15 |
| New Orleans | 5.90 |
| NY Giants | 5.85 |
| LA Rams | 5.80 |
| LA Chargers | 5.80 |
| Cincinnati | 5.75 |
| Indianapolis | 5.05 |
| Chicago | 4.55 |
| Cleveland | 3.60 |
| NY Jets | 2.95 |
That’s New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Kansas City winning the divisions on the AFC side, with Denver and Oakland as the wild cards. Baltimore and Miami have the best chance of winning 8-plus games without making the cut.
In the NFC, Atlanta, Seattle, Green Bay and Dallas are the division winners. The Cowboys just barely edge Philadelphia, with Detroit getting the other wild card spot. I have three NFC teams with a good chance of winning 9 games without making the playoffs – Minnesota, Carolina and Tampa Bay.
That’s just one take, of course. No doubt you’ll see some of the games differently, and no doubt there were be some key injuries along the way, affecting a bunch of games.
But that’s how I’ve got them for now, and the week-by-week breakdown appears below.
| WIN PROBABILITIES FOR REMAINING GAMES | ||
|---|---|---|
| Wk | Visitor | Home |
| 3 | Pittsburgh 80% | at Chicago 20% |
| 3 | Miami 80% | at NY Jets 20% |
| 3 | Denver 65% | at Buffalo 35% |
| 3 | Kansas City 60% | at LA Chargers 40% |
| 3 | Dallas 60% | at Arizona 40% |
| 3 | Oakland 55% | at Washington 45% |
| 3 | Baltimore 55% | v. Jacksonville 45% |
| 3 | Atlanta 50% | at Detroit 50% |
| 3 | Tampa Bay 40% | at Minnesota 60% |
| 3 | Seattle 40% | at Tennessee 60% |
| 3 | Cleveland 40% | at Indianapolis 60% |
| 3 | LA Rams 35% | at San Francisco 65% |
| 3 | NY Giants 25% | at Philadelphia 75% |
| 3 | New Orleans 25% | at Carolina 75% |
| 3 | Cincinnati 15% | at Green Bay 85% |
| 3 | Houston 10% | at New England 90% |
| 4 | Tennessee 65% | at Houston 35% |
| 4 | Miami 55% | v. New Orleans 45% |
| 4 | Cincinnati 55% | at Cleveland 45% |
| 4 | Pittsburgh 50% | at Baltimore 50% |
| 4 | Philadelphia 50% | at LA Chargers 50% |
| 4 | Jacksonville 50% | at NY Jets 50% |
| 4 | San Francisco 45% | at Arizona 55% |
| 4 | Oakland 40% | at Denver 60% |
| 4 | Detroit 40% | at Minnesota 60% |
| 4 | NY Giants 35% | at Tampa Bay 65% |
| 4 | Washington 20% | at Kansas City 80% |
| 4 | Carolina 20% | at New England 80% |
| 4 | LA Rams 15% | at Dallas 85% |
| 4 | Buffalo 15% | at Atlanta 85% |
| 4 | Chicago 10% | at Green Bay 90% |
| 4 | Indianapolis 5% | at Seattle 95% |
| 5 | Seattle 75% | at LA Rams 25% |
| 5 | Kansas City 65% | at Houston 35% |
| 5 | New England 60% | at Tampa Bay 40% |
| 5 | Minnesota 60% | at Chicago 40% |
| 5 | Tennessee 50% | at Miami 50% |
| 5 | San Francisco 50% | at Indianapolis 50% |
| 5 | Green Bay 50% | at Dallas 50% |
| 5 | NY Jets 45% | at Cleveland 55% |
| 5 | Carolina 40% | at Detroit 60% |
| 5 | Buffalo 40% | at Cincinnati 60% |
| 5 | LA Chargers 35% | at NY Giants 65% |
| 5 | Baltimore 30% | at Oakland 70% |
| 5 | Arizona 15% | at Philadelphia 85% |
| 5 | Jacksonville 10% | at Pittsburgh 90% |
| 6 | New England 95% | at NY Jets 5% |
| 6 | Tampa Bay 55% | at Arizona 45% |
| 6 | Philadelphia 50% | at Carolina 50% |
| 6 | Green Bay 50% | at Minnesota 50% |
| 6 | Detroit 50% | at New Orleans 50% |
| 6 | Pittsburgh 45% | at Kansas City 55% |
| 6 | LA Rams 40% | at Jacksonville 60% |
| 6 | San Francisco 35% | at Washington 65% |
| 6 | Miami 25% | at Atlanta 75% |
| 6 | Cleveland 25% | at Houston 75% |
| 6 | NY Giants 20% | at Denver 80% |
| 6 | Chicago 20% | at Baltimore 80% |
| 6 | LA Chargers 15% | at Oakland 85% |
| 6 | Indianapolis 15% | at Tennessee 85% |
| 7 | Tennessee 90% | at Cleveland 10% |
| 7 | Seattle 75% | at NY Giants 25% |
| 7 | Dallas 60% | at San Francisco 40% |
| 7 | Tampa Bay 55% | at Buffalo 45% |
| 7 | Denver 55% | at LA Chargers 45% |
| 7 | Carolina 55% | at Chicago 45% |
| 7 | Jacksonville 50% | at Indianapolis 50% |
| 7 | LA Rams 45% | v. Arizona 55% |
| 7 | Kansas City 40% | at Oakland 60% |
| 7 | Baltimore 40% | at Minnesota 60% |
| 7 | Atlanta 35% | at New England 65% |
| 7 | Washington 25% | at Philadelphia 75% |
| 7 | New Orleans 15% | at Green Bay 85% |
| 7 | Cincinnati 15% | at Pittsburgh 85% |
| 7 | NY Jets 10% | at Miami 90% |
| 8 | Atlanta 95% | at NY Jets 5% |
| 8 | Oakland 60% | at Buffalo 40% |
| 8 | Dallas 60% | at Washington 40% |
| 8 | Pittsburgh 50% | at Detroit 50% |
| 8 | Miami 40% | at Baltimore 60% |
| 8 | Indianapolis 40% | at Cincinnati 60% |
| 8 | Denver 40% | at Kansas City 60% |
| 8 | Carolina 40% | at Tampa Bay 60% |
| 8 | Chicago 35% | at New Orleans 65% |
| 8 | San Francisco 25% | at Philadelphia 75% |
| 8 | Cleveland 20% | v. Minnesota 80% |
| 8 | Houston 15% | at Seattle 85% |
| 8 | LA Chargers 10% | at New England 90% |
| 9 | Buffalo 60% | at NY Jets 40% |
| 9 | Tampa Bay 55% | at New Orleans 45% |
| 9 | Oakland 55% | at Miami 45% |
| 9 | Denver 50% | at Philadelphia 50% |
| 9 | Atlanta 50% | at Carolina 50% |
| 9 | Kansas City 45% | at Dallas 55% |
| 9 | Cincinnati 45% | at Jacksonville 55% |
| 9 | Indianapolis 40% | at Houston 60% |
| 9 | Arizona 40% | at San Francisco 60% |
| 9 | LA Rams 35% | at NY Giants 65% |
| 9 | Baltimore 35% | at Tennessee 65% |
| 9 | Detroit 30% | at Green Bay 70% |
| 9 | Washington 15% | at Seattle 85% |
| 10 | Pittsburgh 90% | at Indianapolis 10% |
| 10 | Green Bay 80% | at Chicago 20% |
| 10 | Seattle 65% | at Arizona 35% |
| 10 | New England 55% | at Denver 45% |
| 10 | Minnesota 55% | at Washington 45% |
| 10 | NY Giants 50% | at San Francisco 50% |
| 10 | LA Chargers 50% | at Jacksonville 50% |
| 10 | Miami 45% | at Carolina 55% |
| 10 | Houston 45% | at LA Rams 55% |
| 10 | New Orleans 40% | at Buffalo 60% |
| 10 | Dallas 35% | at Atlanta 65% |
| 10 | Cincinnati 20% | at Tennessee 80% |
| 10 | Cleveland 15% | at Detroit 85% |
| 10 | NY Jets 10% | at Tampa Bay 90% |
| 11 | Detroit 60% | at Chicago 40% |
| 11 | Kansas City 55% | at NY Giants 45% |
| 11 | Washington 50% | at New Orleans 50% |
| 11 | Jacksonville 50% | at Cleveland 50% |
| 11 | Tampa Bay 45% | at Miami 55% |
| 11 | Buffalo 40% | at LA Chargers 60% |
| 11 | Atlanta 40% | at Seattle 60% |
| 11 | Arizona 40% | at Houston 60% |
| 11 | Tennessee 35% | at Pittsburgh 65% |
| 11 | Philadelphia 35% | at Dallas 65% |
| 11 | Oakland 35% | v. New England 65% |
| 11 | Baltimore 25% | at Green Bay 75% |
| 11 | LA Rams 15% | at Minnesota 85% |
| 11 | Cincinnati 15% | at Denver 85% |
| 12 | Carolina 70% | at NY Jets 30% |
| 12 | Seattle 60% | at San Francisco 40% |
| 12 | New Orleans 50% | at LA Rams 50% |
| 12 | Tennessee 45% | at Indianapolis 55% |
| 12 | NY Giants 40% | at Washington 60% |
| 12 | Minnesota 40% | at Detroit 60% |
| 12 | Jacksonville 40% | at Arizona 60% |
| 12 | Green Bay 40% | at Pittsburgh 60% |
| 12 | Denver 40% | at Oakland 60% |
| 12 | Tampa Bay 25% | at Atlanta 75% |
| 12 | Houston 25% | at Baltimore 75% |
| 12 | Cleveland 20% | at Cincinnati 80% |
| 12 | Chicago 20% | at Philadelphia 80% |
| 12 | Miami 15% | at New England 85% |
| 12 | LA Chargers 15% | at Dallas 85% |
| 12 | Buffalo 15% | at Kansas City 85% |
| 13 | Kansas City 90% | at NY Jets 10% |
| 13 | New England 85% | at Buffalo 15% |
| 13 | Pittsburgh 60% | at Cincinnati 40% |
| 13 | Denver 55% | at Miami 45% |
| 13 | Carolina 55% | at New Orleans 45% |
| 13 | San Francisco 45% | at Chicago 55% |
| 13 | Detroit 45% | at Baltimore 55% |
| 13 | LA Rams 40% | at Arizona 60% |
| 13 | Indianapolis 40% | at Jacksonville 60% |
| 13 | Philadelphia 30% | at Seattle 70% |
| 13 | Minnesota 30% | at Atlanta 70% |
| 13 | Tampa Bay 25% | at Green Bay 75% |
| 13 | Washington 20% | at Dallas 80% |
| 13 | NY Giants 20% | at Oakland 80% |
| 13 | Houston 20% | at Tennessee 80% |
| 13 | Cleveland 20% | at LA Chargers 80% |
| 14 | Green Bay 95% | at Cleveland 5% |
| 14 | Seattle 85% | at Jacksonville 15% |
| 14 | New England 65% | at Miami 35% |
| 14 | Tennessee 60% | at Arizona 40% |
| 14 | Philadelphia 60% | at LA Rams 40% |
| 14 | Dallas 55% | at NY Giants 45% |
| 14 | Washington 45% | at LA Chargers 55% |
| 14 | San Francisco 45% | at Houston 55% |
| 14 | Minnesota 45% | at Carolina 55% |
| 14 | Oakland 40% | at Kansas City 60% |
| 14 | Detroit 40% | at Tampa Bay 60% |
| 14 | Indianapolis 35% | at Buffalo 65% |
| 14 | Chicago 35% | at Cincinnati 65% |
| 14 | Baltimore 25% | at Pittsburgh 75% |
| 14 | New Orleans 15% | at Atlanta 85% |
| 14 | NY Jets 5% | at Denver 95% |
| 15 | Denver 75% | at Indianapolis 25% |
| 15 | Baltimore 75% | at Cleveland 25% |
| 15 | Tennessee 60% | at San Francisco 40% |
| 15 | Philadelphia 55% | at NY Giants 45% |
| 15 | New England 55% | at Pittsburgh 45% |
| 15 | Miami 55% | at Buffalo 45% |
| 15 | Atlanta 55% | at Tampa Bay 45% |
| 15 | Green Bay 50% | at Carolina 50% |
| 15 | Houston 45% | at Jacksonville 55% |
| 15 | Dallas 40% | at Oakland 60% |
| 15 | Arizona 35% | at Washington 65% |
| 15 | Cincinnati 30% | at Minnesota 70% |
| 15 | NY Jets 20% | at New Orleans 80% |
| 15 | LA Chargers 20% | at Kansas City 80% |
| 15 | Chicago 20% | at Detroit 80% |
| 15 | LA Rams 15% | at Seattle 85% |
| 16 | Pittsburgh 70% | at Houston 30% |
| 16 | LA Chargers 60% | at NY Jets 40% |
| 16 | Atlanta 60% | at New Orleans 40% |
| 16 | Detroit 55% | at Cincinnati 45% |
| 16 | Denver 55% | at Washington 45% |
| 16 | Oakland 50% | at Philadelphia 50% |
| 16 | NY Giants 50% | at Arizona 50% |
| 16 | Tampa Bay 45% | at Carolina 55% |
| 16 | Seattle 45% | at Dallas 55% |
| 16 | Jacksonville 35% | at San Francisco 65% |
| 16 | Minnesota 30% | at Green Bay 70% |
| 16 | Miami 30% | at Kansas City 70% |
| 16 | Indianapolis 25% | at Baltimore 75% |
| 16 | Cleveland 25% | at Chicago 75% |
| 16 | LA Rams 15% | at Tennessee 85% |
| 16 | Buffalo 10% | at New England 90% |
| 17 | Oakland 55% | at LA Chargers 45% |
| 17 | Green Bay 50% | at Detroit 50% |
| 17 | Washington 45% | at NY Giants 55% |
| 17 | San Francisco 45% | at LA Rams 55% |
| 17 | Kansas City 45% | at Denver 55% |
| 17 | Houston 45% | at Indianapolis 55% |
| 17 | Dallas 45% | at Philadelphia 55% |
| 17 | Cincinnati 30% | at Baltimore 70% |
| 17 | Buffalo 30% | at Miami 70% |
| 17 | New Orleans 25% | at Tampa Bay 75% |
| 17 | Carolina 25% | at Atlanta 75% |
| 17 | Chicago 20% | at Minnesota 80% |
| 17 | Jacksonville 15% | at Tennessee 85% |
| 17 | Arizona 15% | at Seattle 85% |
| 17 | NY Jets 5% | at New England 95% |
| 17 | Cleveland 5% | at Pittsburgh 95% |