Jon Gruden is back in the NFL. Now what? It’s fun to listen to him toss around phrases like “War Daddies”, “Spider 2 Y Banana” and “Taking the cheese”, but is he actually an offensive guru? He’s been out of the game for nine years, and the game’s changed a lot.
Gruden got fired in Tampa Bay, recall. He was there for six years, and all of those teams ranked below-average in scoring. In his first season there, they rode a great defense to a Super Bowl title, but that was the last playoff game he won.
Gruden has been the head coach of 11 NFL teams, and only three of those ranked higher than 18th in scoring.
| GRUDEN'S 11 SEASONS AS HEAD COACH | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | W-L | Points | Rnk |
| 1998 | Oakland | 8-8 | 288 | 22nd |
| 1999 | Oakland | 8-8 | 390 | 9th |
| 2000 | Oakland | 12-4 | 479 | 3rd |
| 2001 | Oakland | 10-6 | 399 | 4th |
| 2002 | Tampa Bay | 12-4 | 346 | 18th |
| 2003 | Tampa Bay | 7-9 | 301 | 18th |
| 2004 | Tampa Bay | 5-11 | 301 | 23rd |
| 2005 | Tampa Bay | 11-5 | 300 | 20th |
| 2006 | Tampa Bay | 4-12 | 211 | 31st |
| 2007 | Tampa Bay | 9-7 | 334 | 20th |
| 2008 | Tampa Bay | 9-7 | 361 | 19th |
Gruden’s teams haven’t tended to have a lot of success running the ball. Of his 11 teams, only four ranked higher than 15th in rushing.
(On this chart below, the “rank” shows not traditional NFL yardage rank but is the fantasy production rank – using 1 point for every 10 rushing yards and 6 points for every rushing touchdown.)
| GRUDEN'S 11 TEAMS -- RUSHING PRODUCTION | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Att | Yards | Avg | TD | Rnk |
| 1998 | Oakland | 449 | 1,727 | 3.8 | 6 | 24th |
| 1999 | Oakland | 488 | 2,084 | 4.3 | 18 | 3rd |
| 2000 | Oakland | 520 | 2,470 | 4.8 | 23 | 1st |
| 2001 | Oakland | 450 | 1,654 | 3.7 | 14 | 13th |
| 2002 | Tampa Bay | 414 | 1,557 | 3.8 | 6 | 30th |
| 2003 | Tampa Bay | 421 | 1,648 | 3.9 | 5 | 29th |
| 2004 | Tampa Bay | 393 | 1,489 | 3.8 | 9 | 29th |
| 2005 | Tampa Bay | 457 | 1,826 | 4.0 | 13 | 15th |
| 2006 | Tampa Bay | 404 | 1,523 | 3.8 | 6 | 29th |
| 2007 | Tampa Bay | 449 | 1,872 | 4.2 | 15 | 8th |
| 2008 | Tampa Bay | 451 | 1,837 | 4.1 | 13 | 17th |
Gruden’s teams had more success passing, but they weren’t overwhelmingly successful. Only three of his teams ranked in the top 10 in passing (again, using fantasy production – a mix of yards and touchdowns).
He did have a bunch of teams that ranked 11th-13th in passing, however, so you could say that at least eight of his 11 teams ranked in the top 17 in passing. Only two of his teams ranked outside the top 20 in passing production.
And we must also factor in that Gruden never had a franchise-type quarterback to work with in Tampa Bay. Of course, the jury is still out whether Derek Carr will ever develop into a franchise-type quarterback for the Raiders. Right now, you would have to say Carr is something sort of Rich Gannon (who was very effective for Carr way back when).
| GRUDEN'S 11 TEAMS -- PASSING PRODUCTION | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Pct | Yards | TD | Int | Rnk |
| 1998 | Oakland | 54% | 3,534 | 21 | 25 | 13th |
| 1999 | Oakland | 59% | 3,850 | 24 | 14 | 9th |
| 2000 | Oakland | 60% | 3,430 | 28 | 11 | 11th |
| 2001 | Oakland | 66% | 3,862 | 27 | 9 | 4th |
| 2002 | Tampa Bay | 61% | 3,665 | 23 | 10 | 17th |
| 2003 | Tampa Bay | 62% | 3,941 | 27 | 22 | 5th |
| 2004 | Tampa Bay | 66% | 3,773 | 24 | 18 | 13th |
| 2005 | Tampa Bay | 62% | 3,171 | 17 | 14 | 25th |
| 2006 | Tampa Bay | 55% | 2,994 | 14 | 18 | 30th |
| 2007 | Tampa Bay | 64% | 3,579 | 18 | 8 | 20th |
| 2008 | Tampa Bay | 63% | 3,788 | 18 | 13 | 13th |
For me, with Gruden, I am most intrigued by his history of getting the ball into the hands of his featured receiver. That’s been in place all along, dating back to him working in the ‘90s with Sterling Sharpe in Green Bay and Irving Fryer in Philadelphia.
During his years with the two pirate franchises, Gruden tended to always have a productive flanker. The NFL game has changed, with more spreads and the zone-read and whatnot, but I would expect Gruden will continue to have a productive player at that position. Of all the players on the Oakland roster, Amari Cooper would be the one I would be most excited about.
| GRUDEN'S LEADING WIDE RECEIVERS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 1998 | Tim Brown, Oak. | 81 | 1,012 | 12.5 | 9 |
| 1999 | Tim Brown, Oak. | 90 | 1,344 | 14.9 | 6 |
| 2000 | Tim Brown, Oak. | 76 | 1,128 | 14.8 | 11 |
| 2001 | Tim Brown, Oak. | 91 | 1,165 | 12.8 | 10 |
| 2002 | Keyshawn Johnson, T.B. | 76 | 1,088 | 14.3 | 5 |
| 2003 | Keenan McCardell, T.B. | 84 | 1,174 | 14.0 | 9 |
| 2004 | Michael Clayton, T.B. | 80 | 1,193 | 14.9 | 7 |
| 2005 | Joey Galloway, T.B. | 83 | 1,287 | 15.5 | 10 |
| 2006 | Joey Galloway, T.B. | 62 | 1,057 | 17.0 | 7 |
| 2007 | Joey Galloway, T.B. | 57 | 1,014 | 17.8 | 6 |
| 2008 | Antonio Bryant, T.B. | 83 | 1,248 | 15.0 | 7 |
During his previous run as a head coach, Gruden didn’t tend to have great running backs. Here are his 11 leaders (using fantasy points to select the top one each year).
| GRUDEN'S BEST RUNNING BACKS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | Rec | Yards | TD |
| 1998 | Napoleon Kaufman, Oak. | 921 | 191 | 1,112 | 2 |
| 1999 | Tyrone Wheatley, Oak. | 936 | 196 | 1,132 | 11 |
| 2000 | Tyrone Wheatley, Oak. | 1,046 | 156 | 1,202 | 10 |
| 2001 | Charlie Garner, Oak. | 839 | 578 | 1,417 | 3 |
| 2002 | Mike Alstott, T.B. | 548 | 242 | 790 | 7 |
| 2004 | Michael Pittman, T.B. | 926 | 391 | 1,317 | 10 |
| 2005 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 1,178 | 81 | 1,259 | 6 |
| 2006 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 798 | 196 | 994 | 1 |
| 2007 | Earnest Graham, T.B. | 898 | 324 | 1,222 | 10 |
| 2008 | Warrick Dunn, T.B. | 786 | 330 | 1,116 | 2 |
—Ian Allan